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Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism / Search Inside This Book
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37 matches found for How People Learn Brain,Mind,Experience,and School Expanded Edition. in Appendix B: Request for Information

Select a page to see where your word(s) or phrase(s) are located in the OpenBook. Excerpts from the chapter provide context.


In the middle of page 41...
... During its data collection for Phase II, the committee developed a set of questions pertaining to nuclear war risks and a different set pertaining to nuclear terrorism risks....
In the middle of page 41...
... unclassified, publicly available information. For Phase II, the committee will revisit Tasks 1–3, with access to relevant classified information and will focus on Tasks 4 and 5, which explore the interface between risk assessment and strategy development by U.S. policy makers....
In the middle of page 41...
... Information includes the following: reports, policy statements, briefings, site visits, and potential observation of exercises....
In the middle of page 41...
... The committee will explore the intersection between those conducting risk assessments and decision makers (consumers of risk assessments) examining assumptions that are made by risk analysts and how are they communicated to the decision ... ; and assumptions that are made by the decision makers when incorporating risk assessments into strategy and decisions....
At the bottom of page 41...
... Are there any written materials on relevant U.S. government (USG) risk analyses and national nuclear strategies that the committee should review in advance of your presentation?...
At the bottom of page 41...
... Role in USG strategies: What role does your organization play in USG development of (a) risk assessment of nuclear war; and (b) nuclear or national security strategies?...
At the bottom of page 41...
... How does your work contribute to nuclear or national strategy documents? Identify the documents or statements....
At the top of page 42...
... Current risk methods: What methods and approaches for assessing risk related to nuclear war are used in your roll/organization?...
At the top of page 42...
... Include both quantitative and qualitative methods...
At the top of page 42...
... How are scenarios identified for exercises/war games and what assumptions are made in planning and conducting those events? What recent relevant exercises or war games have taken place that the committee can be briefed on?...
At the top of page 42...
... To USG leadership briefing the committee (i.e., STRATCOM, Joint Chiefs, NSC, and others):...
In the middle of page 42...
... Describe your process for internally vetting/challenging assumptions and risk estimates. How does that process interact with the NSC staff (this goes to decision making)?...
In the middle of page 42...
... Describe how your organization uses red teaming in order to better assess risk estimates and their underlying methodology....
In the middle of page 42...
... Recent and past events and risk assessment: In the questions below, the committee requests information on the methods, assumptions, and changes made to risk assessment approaches in response to real-world events of relevance to the risk of nuclear war....
In the middle of page 42...
... For risk analyses related to the war in Ukraine, provide details on how methods were used and updated as the situation evolved....
In the middle of page 42...
... What risk methods were used to assess risks of Russian invasion and were they successful in predicting/preparing the U.S. for actions to take to reduce risk of nuclear war? What, if any, changes were made to the ...
In the middle of page 42...
... How were risk analysis outputs used in responding to Russian invasion? And China’s response?...
In the middle of page 42...
... What actions have been taken in response to past “near misses” and how have those actions been assessed to reduce risk of nuclear war? What has changed to increase the risk? Selected incidents include: Cuban Missile ... , 1983 Able Archer Exercise, and 1991 George H.W. Bush de-alerting U.S. strategic nuclear forces. Other examples are welcomed....
In the middle of page 42...
... How does the missile defense system’s capability enter into risk assessments, if at all?...
At the bottom of page 42...
... Given what you know about this Committee’s Statement of Task, where and how do you think this Committee can add value in the use of risk analysis methods to address nuclear terrorism?...
In the middle of page 43...
... Explain how risk estimates are used to arrive at non-proliferation program budget decisions. What methods are used in developing these risk estimates?...
In the middle of page 43...
... risk of the detonation of an improvised nuclear device to the deployment of a radiological dirty device or other radiological devices? If so, explain how risk estimates are used in this comparison?...
In the middle of page 43...
... Explain how your organization uses risk estimates to assess the physical security of nuclear materials overseas that are covered by USG non-proliferation funding....
In the middle of page 43...
... How do cybersecurity vulnerabilities factor into your organization’s risk estimates for prioritizing securing nuclear materials domestically and overseas?...
In the middle of page 43...
... Describe your organization’s risk informed process to determine what nuclear materials (other than HEU and weapons grade plutonium) your program should fund/support....
At the bottom of page 43...
... In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically the Russian attacks against and in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, has there been a uniform USG approach to addressing the risks of nuclear fuel meltdown or ...

A total of pages of uncorrected, machine-read text were searched in this chapter. Please note that the searchable text may be scanned, uncorrected text, and should be presumed inaccurate. Page images should be used as the authoritative version.