Because transportation investment programs have extended time horizons, state departments of transportation (DOTs) must forecast costs well into the future. This poses a serious challenge: the longer the time horizon, the more uncertainty and risk that forecasted costs will vary from actual, future costs.
The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Research Report 953: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies presents a cost forecasting method for use by state transportation agencies that better accounts for cost variability and economic volatility over time.
Supplemental information to the report includes NCHRP Web-Only Document 283: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting for State Transportation Agencies, a cost forecasting toolkit, a guidebook presentation, and videos.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25972.
|Chapter 1 - Introduction||1-7|
|Chapter 2 - Framework for Selecting a Cost Forecasting Approach||8-14|
|Chapter 3 - Cost Indexing Alternatives||15-36|
|Chapter 4 - Index-Based Cost Forecasting Approaches||37-44|
|Chapter 5 - Cost Forecasting Tool Kit||45-53|
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