The AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides fact-based, analytical tools and techniques to quantify the potential safety impacts of planning, design, operations, and maintenance decisions.
The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Research Report 983: Reliability of Crash Prediction Models: A Guide for Quantifying and Improving the Reliability of Model Results complements the HSM by providing methods for consistently ensuring model reliability.
Supplemental to the report are NCHRP Web-Only Document 303: Understanding and Communicating Reliability of Crash Prediction Models, a communications plan, a flyer, and a PowerPoint presentation.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Reliability of Crash Prediction Models: A Guide for Quantifying and Improving the Reliability of Model Results. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26517.
|Chapter 1 - Introduction and Background||1-8|
|Chapter 2 - Quantifying the Reliability of CPM Estimates for Mismatches Between Crash Modification Factors and SPF Base Conditions||9-36|
|Chapter 3 - Quantifying the Reliability of CPM Estimates for Error in Estimated Input Values||37-46|
|Chapter 4 - Quantifying the Reliability of CPM Estimates for How the Number of Variables in Crash Prediction Models Affects Reliability||47-56|
|Chapter 5 - Reliability Associated with Using a Crash Prediction Model to Estimate Frequency of Rare Crash Types and Severities||57-69|
|Chapter 6 - Reliability Associated with Predicting Outside the Range of Independent Variables||70-80|
|Chapter 7 - Reliability Associated with Crash Prediction Models Estimated for Other Facility Types||81-92|
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