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The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a 1- day classified workshop on March 2, 2022, to discuss the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA’s) methodologies and rare event anticipatory models and share insights from the unclassified Workshop on Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance held on December 17 and 21, 2021. A major goal of both workshops was to examine the methodologies and experiences of other disciplines in dealing with significant rare events with a view to aiding DTRA in examining and further developing its own methodologies to address rare events of particular concern to that agency. In accordance with procedures established by the National Academies for classified activities, this abbreviated version is an unclassified summary of a classified Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief.
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