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The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is a tool that helps transportation agencies make data-driven decisions about safety. It includes methods for quantifying safety performance and predicting crash frequencies. The HSM is currently being updated to include macro-level crash prediction models, which can be used to assess safety trends at a regional or national level.

NCHRP Research Report 1044: Development and Application of Quantitative Macro-Level Safety Prediction Models, from TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program, details macro-level models, which have the potential to be a valuable complement to micro-level models, which are currently the only type of model included in the HSM.

Supplemental to the report are NCHRP Web-Only Document 348: Macro-Level Analysis of Safety Planning and Crash Prediction Models: A Guide and a spreadsheet tool.

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Suggested Citation

National Research Council. 2023. Development and Application of Quantitative Macro-Level Safety Prediction Models. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27125.

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Publication Info

136 pages |  8.5 x 11 |  DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/27125
Chapters skim
Front Matter i-viii
Chapter 1 - Introduction 1-2
Chapter 2 - Literature Review 3-21
Chapter 3 - Targeted Outreach 22-31
Chapter 4 - Preliminary Data Assessment 32-39
Chapter 5 - Pilot Data Collection and Analysis 40-62
Chapter 6 - Data Collection 63-76
Chapter 7 - Data Analysis 77-104
Chapter 8 - Roadmap for Full Suite of Safety Planning Tools 105-113
Chapter 9 - Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations 114-118
References 119-121
Acronyms and Abbreviations 122-124
Appendix - Interview Template 125-130

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