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From page 124... ...
Readers will find it helpful to read Appendix C before reading this chapter. In keeping with the main subjects of interest identified in Chapter 2, the examples below are meant to be representational depictions of future military applications.
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From page 125... ...
Technology warning methodology detailed in the 2005 National Research Council report Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. FIGURE 5-1 TIGER technology-warning method as one part of an overarching analytical information flow.
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From page 126... ...
, are difficult to predict and often represent extreme force multipliers. A force multiplier is a capability that, when added to and used by a combat force, substantially increases the combat potential of that force and thus enhances the probability of mission accomplishment.
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From page 127... ...
How would human experimentation be conducted outside accepted informed-consent limits? market DRIVERS of cognitive neuroScience and related technologies as indicators of the demand for cots technologies Overview The military and intelligence community can forecast some aspects of how applied cognitive neuroscience technology might threaten the national security of the United States by tracking market drivers.
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From page 128... ...
might change dramatically. Estimates vary on the potential revenue of the neurotechnology health market, but a reasonable estimate can be bounded by current revenue reports (as the low estimate) and total impact or cost burden (as the high estimate)
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From page 129... ...
Furthermore, the likelihood that some of these new drugs will exploit heretofore unknown mechanisms or brain functions creates opportunities for patentable pharmaceuticals. Any real advance in understanding of human behavior or brain disease could lead rapidly to truly new types of drugs, which could present potential positive or negative threats.
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From page 130... ...
Customers seeking better health are often unsatisfied by the existing products -- there is demand for improved and more cost-effective prevention and treatments. One barrier to the expansion of the health market is the stigma associated with mental illness. Social attitudes, ethics, and government policy remain major limiting factors.
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From page 131... ...
A factor that can potentially grow the neurotechnology health market is the advent of neuroinformatics. Diagnosis, prevention, treatment and then cure of brain injury and disease will benefit from better use of the complex array of information associated with a given health problem.
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From page 132... ...
Public and medical demand for enhancement or a competitive edge may create market impetus in many areas. This public climate is illustrated by sources as respectable as a 2006 report in the Harvard Crimson about student demand for stimulants, a 2008 NYTimes.com report about professional baseball players claiming medical exemptions for stimulant use, 10 and a 2003 Fortune magazine report suggesting memory pills for a competitive edge.11 Development areas that may respond to such market incentives include cognition and mentation in all their forms (arousal, attention, cognition, learning, memory, motivation, among others)
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From page 133... ...
Such agents might warrant attention for both their risks and their ability to enhance performance and safety of the individual warfighter. Drug entities developed to have increased selectivity of effects on cognition or performance might conceivably be integrated into enemy military programs.
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From page 134... ...
For example, the Mind Research Network has collected the neuroimaging and genetic data on over 300 prisoners using a mobile MRI facility and has a goal of collecting a thousand subjects by 2009. As stated in Chapter 4, current guidelines for ethical recruitment and participation of human volunteers in research generally prohibit participation by prisoners, due to actual or potential coercion risk (IOM, 2006)
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From page 135... ...
Such developments may also create drug entities that have the capacity to alter human functioning genetically. For example, basic research on the genetics of brain function may create the possibility of genetic memory enhancement -- use of genetic technology to change expression of molecules involved in memory or other cognitive functions.
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From page 136... ...
Russia deployed this chemical developments of other technology in the Moscow Dubrovka countries should be observed for Theater in 2002. The agents were military applications of medical probably fentanyl derivatives and may pharmacology, with particular attention have included inhalation anesthetics to more potent fentanyl derivatives and (Wax et al., 2003)
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From page 137... ...
as weapons delivered by ingestion, However, technologies that could be transdermally, or by inhalation. Analysts available in the next 20 years would should watch for development of allow dispersal of agents in delivery standardized delivery systems that can vehicles that would be analogous to a distribute small-molecule "payloads" pharmacological cluster bomb or a land over large areas, such as crop fields.
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From page 138... ...
138 EMERGING COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES CHART 5-3 Technologies for Highly Potent Blood-Pressure Agents or Sensory-Specific Pharmacological Targeting Technology Triggers and Observables Existing pharmacological agents The literature should be monitored for could be used in a nefarious way. development of sympathomimetic and An example would be currently used parasympatholytic drugs.
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From page 139... ...
Accessibility Maturity Consequence Level 2 Warning Increased access to the brain by drugs that cross the blood-brain barrier would allow increased potency of therapeutics. Brain injury remains a scourge of the warfighter; better treatment by military medical personnel would be of extreme benefit to our troops.
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From page 140... ...
A second example of a potential threat in the category of distributed human-machine systems and computational biology stems from physiomimetic computing hardware. With the exception of a few small-scale endeavors, the c omputational-cognition community has essentially been confined to using largescale general-purpose computers for almost all its modeling and simulation efforts.
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From page 141... ...
A final example would be the development of sophisticated distributed human-machine systems that are capable of greatly enhancing the cognitive and physical performance of human warfighters or allowing them to coordinate the actions of autonomous systems effectively. See Charts 5-5 to 5-8 for examples of the committee's application of the technology warning methodology to the areas of computational biology and distributed human-machine systems.
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From page 142... ...
Accessibility Maturity Consequence Level 1 Watch This technology would lead to important advances in the ability of human analysts to monitor large amounts of information and to formulate and test credible hypotheses. CHART 5-6 Physiomimetic Computing Hardware Technology Triggers and Observables Analogue "brain-like" computer that • Substantial investment in analogue would enable a different approach to computing hardware.
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From page 143... ...
CHART 5-8 Sophisticated Distributed Human-Machine Systems Technology Triggers and Observables Software or robotic assistants for • Research papers. advanced sensor grids, control and • Commercial products.
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The recommendations in this report to improve technology warning for cognitive neuroscience and related technologies are unlikely to succeed unless the following issues are addressed: • Emphasizing science and technology as a priority for intelligence collection and analysis. • Appointing and retaining accomplished IC professionals with advanced scientific and technical training to aid in the development of S&T collection strategies.
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From page 145... ...
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