The Next Decade of Discovery in Solar and Space Physics Exploring and Safeguarding Humanity's Home in Space (2025) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix E: Report of the Panel on Space Weather Science and Applications
Pages 453-582

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From page 453...
... The panel's report also includes annexes covering the organizational development of the space weather enterprise (Annex E.A) , space weather utility assessments of specific mission concepts provided by the steering committee (Annex E.B)
From page 454...
... . Space weather science and its applications are a necessary part of a foundation to enable NASA to achieve its vision of "exploring the secrets of the universe for the benefit of all." In the past 21 years, the Sun has had only mild and moderate levels of solar activity (Figure E-2)
From page 455...
... In October 2023, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued a revised prediction for solar activity during Solar Cycle 25, concluding that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019.2 In a 2019 event hosted by the U.S.
From page 456...
... . Roles and plans for the various agencies to address the urgent Space Traffic and Space Situational Awareness have also been established.
From page 457...
... , space weather research is supported by multiple agencies, including NOAA, NASA, NSF, and DoD, as well as academia and the commercial sector.5 Separating space weather science from space physics/heliophysics is generally not simple, nor is the division completely agreed upon. The word "research" is itself used rather broadly to encompass a range of activities from fundamental to applied scientific research.
From page 458...
... • Space weather applications is a term that includes space weather operations, benchmarking, and climatological activities and work relating to the bidirectional connection between space weather science research and space weather tools. Specifically, space weather applications cater to all the needs and requirements of the space weather end user communities.
From page 459...
... On the research side, space weather research is an applied science subset of fundamental space physics, and to truly qualify as space weather research, studies and projects need to identify a clear pathway along the spectrum to operational and applicational product development that satisfies some end user needs and requirements. On the operations side, space weather operations represent only one specific subset of space weather end user products and applications; other examples of end user products and applications include engineering design tools, benchmarking, reanalysis and climatological models, and forensics work.
From page 460...
... mission, currently scheduled for launch in the second half of 2025. It will be equipped with solar wind plasma and magnetic field instruments to sustain in situ monitoring of the solar wind upstream of Earth, and with an operational coronagraph to remotely track coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
From page 461...
... , a space weather payload that will make measurements of the solar wind and Earth's magnetotail from the polar lunar orbit of the Gateway Habitat and Logistics Outpost (HALO) module.
From page 462...
... The Air Force Office of Scientific Research sponsors fundamental scientific research, including areas relating to space weather. International Collaboration The United States has many international space weather partnerships, including with Canada to model the geoelectric field for the combined U.S.–Canada power grid; with Brazil to study the South Atlantic anomaly, scintillations, and plasma bubbles with the Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT)
From page 463...
... ESA leads and coordinates the development of the space-based measurement systems that enable the services. For example, ESA is developing the Vigil mission to be launched in 2031 to add solar and in situ solar wind monitoring capability at the fifth Sun–Earth Lagrangian point (L5)
From page 464...
... than the CME-driven storms. Geomagnetic storms caused by the solar wind can arise as a result of sustained periods of southward-directed magnetic field associated with high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs)
From page 465...
... Because the solar wind driver measurements for input to the Geospace Model are obtained at the L1 Lagrangian point, the maximum forecast lead time of the Geospace Model is 10–30 minutes, depending on the solar wind transit time from L1 to Earth. This lead time is not sufficient to give power grid operators actionable warnings of incoming geomagnetic storms, with most operators requiring lead times of at least 12 hours.
From page 466...
... model is an empirical model that uses L1 solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field measurements to calculate a short-term (10- to 30-minute) forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora.
From page 467...
... In Earth's atmosphere, GCRs, SEPs, and radiation belt particles create a shower of secondary energetic particles that can endanger airline crew and passengers and potentially cause SEUs in avionics. During large SEP events, this enhanced atmospheric radiation environment poses a hazard for flight crew and passengers, especially for high-altitude flights over the geomagnetic poles.
From page 468...
... Major SEP events can also penetrate Earth's magnetic field to impact aviation and commercial suborbital operations outside of polar regions. Currently, SWPC issues 24-, 48-, and 72-hour probabilistic eruption forecasts based on analysis of solar active region morphology, climatological rates, and human-in-the-loop (HITL)
From page 469...
... A primary measurement requirement to achieve these lead time, accuracy, and reliability milestones via advanced data-driven or data-assimilative approaches is simultaneous, intercalibrated, full-Sun measurements -- including from polar vantage points -- of magnetic field and atmospheric structure along with coronagraphic imaging so that active regions can be tracked over their entire lifetime, magnetic connectivity established over longitudinal spans, background solar wind models improved, and CME trajectories relative to surrounding coronal structure established. Intercalibrated means that measured magnetogram flux density values and uncertainties can be linearly calibrated across any pair of observing platforms at resolutions sufficient to feed advanced prediction models.
From page 470...
... The resulting model, the HASDM, is currently the gold standard against which other thermospheric density models ought to be compared. Unfortunately, the JB08 model has very poor forecasting ability, as it assumes a uniform, hydrostatic atmosphere and uses only crude solar wind and geomagnetic activity inputs.
From page 471...
... It is recognized that only the first of these items is directly related to space weather research; however, the panel includes them to highlight that space weather research must often be closely integrated with other applied science and engineering disciplines to achieve actionable results for end users. Because of the increasing congestion of the LEO orbital environment, potential for catastrophic damage to increasingly critical space infrastructure, and the central role played by thermospheric neutral-density forecasts in determining LEO resident space object trajectories, conjunctions, debris propagation, and reentry parameters, the panel assesses that it is critical to achieve this goal within the next decade.
From page 472...
... Here the threat of surface charge build-up from energetic electrons accelerated by magnetotail reconnection events may be a significant risk to astronauts working in cislunar space or on the surface of the Moon. Furthermore, lunar dust may interact with the solar wind or magnetotail, producing a dynamic hazard for lunar surface activities.
From page 473...
... E.3.4 Goal 4 Develop a 12-hour lead time forecast of CME Bz and a 2- to 3-hour upwind nowcast of other solar wind and CME characteristics at Earth. The North–South component of the magnetic field of the solar wind and CMEs (so-called Bz)
From page 474...
... (2) To provide an actionable 2- to 3-hour short-term forecast or nowcast of the solar wind and IMF that is to impact Earth, upstream measurements of solar wind and CME speed, density, and vector magnetic field at heliocentric distances of 0.9–0.97 AU are needed.
From page 475...
... auroral imaging can simultaneously offer a comprehensive snapshot of the entire hemisphere with mesoscale structure resolution, providing high-reliability data about auroral properties and dynamics during geomagnetic storms. In addition, in situ suprathermal to energetic particle measurements from polar-orbiting LEO satellites are needed to inform particle precipitation rates in ionospheric models.
From page 476...
... Because All Clear could potentially be applied to all fields of space weather, improvements in essentially all space weather observations and models are desirable to achieve this goal, including coronagraph imagery, X rays, EUV, in situ solar wind plasma, magnetic fields, and energetic particles. From a measurement perspective, continuous full-Sun observations to provide the complete instantaneous state of the Sun to identify solar conditions relevant to All Clear forecasting would be highly beneficial to achieving this goal.
From page 477...
... Chromospheric and coronal for data assimilative and/or AI/ML included in the next-generation of L1 6-hour lead time. vector magnetic field.
From page 478...
... including plasma, energetic particles, Earth's vantage point and one more b. Photospheric vector and magnetic field measurements location east of the Sun–Earth line; (e)
From page 479...
... Solar wind monitors sunward of L1 or and on the ground. evolving user forecast needs.
From page 480...
... Increased spatial resolution probabilistic forecasting Important modeling methods and survey of the United States and full magnetometer observations to (1 hour) of geoelectric their application to auroral characterization of the uncertainties characterize, at regional scales, field with increased current systems, geomagnetic associated with the transfer the spatiotemporal geomagnetic spatial resolution disturbances, and solar wind functions.
From page 481...
... Real-time radiation belt modeling to SEPs, and high-speed solar wind)
From page 482...
... 6-month to 1-year all solar longitudes, including the lunar surface missions and Mars 2. Satellite drag calculations for missions forecast of the solar polar regions, to fully understand missions)
From page 483...
... high-altitude commercial aviation operators during large of the geomagnetic field and 2. Airborne measurement campaigns routes during major multiday SEP SEP events.
From page 484...
... Internal charging models of MeV electrons are showing skill at an entire solar rotation. SEE and total dose models depend on solar energetic particle forecasting, with total dose having somewhat longer time horizons because it is an SEP event-cumulative effect.
From page 485...
... In space weather, the closest analog to tropospheric reanalysis is limited to a handful of papers reporting long-term numerical simulations, usually not data assimilative, and some studies that involved simulating every storm during a long time interval. Such "free running" simulations without data assimilation would not generally be recognized as reanalysis runs by tropospheric weather researchers because they do not include improved input data or specific model improvements demonstrating superior state space specification.
From page 486...
... When space weather reanalysis data sets are created, it is important to emphasize that they need to be publicly accessible in open repositories for use by the entire space weather research and forecasting community, including commercial providers of space weather products and services. Because the subfield of systematic reanalysis has been shown to be one of the key drivers of meteorological model improvements, and because the investment to achieve significant progress in the space weather domain would be modest, the panel assesses that it is very important to achieve this goal within the next decade.
From page 487...
... An improved real-time characterization of the geomagnetic field is required to improve the accuracy of model outputs in regions close to the open/closed field boundary where polar latitude flights between the continental United States and Europe operate and estimates of dose rates currently contain uncertainties of an order of magnitude or more during the most impactful events. Furthermore, improved forecasts of SEP timing, intensity, and spectra are needed to achieve actionable lead times for airline operators.
From page 488...
... As a result, emerging challenges, such as space debris characterization and mitigation and LEO space traffic coordination and management, are not always well integrated into existing programmatic structures. The panel recognizes that several committees have been established to address this problem -- namely, the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM)
From page 489...
... chain to new operational capabilities. Space weather research relevant to the exploration of the Moon and Mars in support of the Artemis program is an important priority that the panel believes can be advanced through joint funding with other relevant NASA divisions/directorates -- and never solely at the expense of SMD/Heliophysics science mission development or research and analysis (R&A)
From page 490...
... into an operational space weather system. Many space weather gap analysis exercises and suggestions are fundamentally limited by the inability to quantify how a new measurement or observation will impact the accuracy, lead time, and usability of space weather forecasting (and nowcasting)
From page 491...
... or mission proposal T e ch D e m o, p r ot ot y p e , or p at h f i nd e r ob s e r v at or y : " r e al w or ld " p r oof - of - conce p t f or ne w ob s e r v at i onal s y s t e m cap ab i li t y NO Y ES P athfinder/prototype demonstration successful? O SE : " i n p r act i ce " p r oof - of - conce p t f or v alue ad d e d t o SW x op e r at i ons NO Y ES O SE proves value-added to SWx operations?
From page 492...
... 4. The panel suggests that vested agencies and departments continue to establish structure and funding for the space weather testbed to facilitate formal, two-way engagement between the space weather research and operations communities and space weather end users in impacted industries and sectors (in agreement with SWAGF&R23 R.13.1)
From page 493...
... 11. The panel suggests that funding agencies encourage and support the establishment of heliophysics departments in major research universities with support for faculty positions in the applied science of space weather, forecasting/predictive systems research, and data science as well as multidisciplinary solar and space physics research.
From page 494...
... auroral precipitation) As of Sep 2023, there are approximately -- Magnetic field and field-aligned currents 5000 satellites in LEO -- Charging / discharge sensors 118 97 ISS :~ 40 0k m High-inclination: e.g., StarLink High-LEO: ~550 km e.g., OneWeb ~1200 km Orbit Radius: Polar LEO: 7,926 e.g., DMSP, Sun-synch.
From page 495...
... L3 L3 Lissajous or Heliocentric ecliptic eliptical halo orbits: e.g., Parker Solar Probe L4 orbits: Current gap L4 Current gap SWx Key Observables from heliocentric and Lagrangian orbits: Solar drivers of SWx -- Solar and coronal imaging: photosphere through outer corona -- Magnetograms: photosphere through corona -- Solar irradiance: total and spectral in X-ray through UV 8 -- Solar wind plasma (density, velocity, temperature, composition) 1 AU = astronomical unit = 1.496x10 km -- Interplanetary magnetic field Note: Sizes and distances are not shown to scale -- Solar energetic particles and cosmic rays FIGURE E-9b Solar and heliospheric orbital environments and space weather augmentations.
From page 496...
... . • Other measurements as described in the NASA Space Weather Gap Analysis -- for example, solar wind and magnetic field measurements from peri-geospace.
From page 497...
... Given the demonstrated challenges calibrating identical sensors for GONG, the panel feels there is great risk in merely coordinated observations of the solar magnetic field from the equatorial and polar regions. A unified measurement system using identical magnetograph instruments is viewed as the most worthwhile implementation.
From page 498...
... 1. Support the design, construction, and operation of ground-based facilities for space weather research that can serve as proving ground for ground-based operational facilities (see also Figure E-8)
From page 499...
... • Well-funded R&A programs for fundamental space weather research studies to improve understanding of emerging magnetic flux, coronal and chromospheric magnetic fields, active region eruption potential, coronal mass ejection and shock formation and expansion, and particle acceleration and transport, including magnetic connectivity. • Photospheric magnetic field measurements of the polar regions (>60° latitude)
From page 500...
... . A minimal set of measurements would include intensities of energetic particles (electrons, protons, and heavier ions, species resolved)
From page 501...
... The thermosphere is strongly coupled to Earth's ionosphere, which in turn is strongly coupled to the magnetosphere. Magnetospheric physics also directly impact Earth's thermosphere (i.e., auroral processes and energetic particle precipitation)
From page 502...
... . Applied research needs: • Studies to improve characterizations and predictions of the cislunar radiation environment, including • Predictions of solar energetic particle event profiles for consideration in human radiation exposure and SEE mitigation.
From page 503...
... Basic research needs: • Well-funded R&A programs for fundamental space weather research studies to improve heliospheric solar wind and CME modeling and/or propagation techniques, solar wind models with data assimilation and inclusion of subgrid physics to include turbulence and reconnection, and data-driven solar surface and coronal models of CME initiation models with internal magnetic field coupled with large-scale MHD models of solar wind and CME propagation to 1 AU.
From page 504...
... Applied research needs: • Sustained funding for space weather applied research centers dedicated to developing advanced models for prediction of solar wind and CME Bz at Earth. Such centers could establish space weather research programs for data assimilation and ensemble modeling techniques for empirical and physics-based codes of CMEs and solar wind.
From page 505...
... Goal 6: Develop Reliable Probabilistic All Clear Forecasts with Multiday Lead Time Summary of Goal An All Clear forecast indicates that the space weather environment will be quiet, clear, or nonthreatening for a predetermined duration (e.g., 12 or 24 hours)
From page 506...
... Basic research needs: • Fund space weather research programs for probabilistic spatiotemporal modeling methods and their application to auroral current systems, geomagnetic disturbances, and solar wind drivers for geospace modeling. • Develop and fund R&A programs for fundamental space weather research studies to characterize and quantify telluric currents and their contributions to magnetic perturbations, auroral drivers of meso- and small-scale current systems that drive geomagnetic disturbances, and the necessary and sufficient conditions for substorm onset and the predictability of substorms.
From page 507...
... These centers would also develop new methods to provide reliable probabilities and multiple realizations of higher-dimensional predictions, incorporating new approaches in data science and data assimilation to accelerate improvements in skill. • Fund space weather research programs for quantifying event likelihood and hazard impacts for geoelectric hazard.
From page 508...
... Current predictive capabilities are hampered by limited understanding of the solar polar magnetic field and surface and subsurface flows that are believed to play a key role in the dynamo generation of magnetic flux in each cycle. Improved solar cycle prediction would benefit a wide variety of end users and activities, including spacecraft designers, mission planning involving long-duration human spaceflight, and managing/planning safe spacecraft reentry.
From page 509...
... Operational needs: • Continued long-term, space-based observations in GEO, MEO, and LEO and upstream solar wind monitoring.
From page 510...
... for assimilative models, supporting new and improved modeling approaches for nowcasting and forecasting, and coordinating and supporting ground-based observations as integral to the real-time data ecosystem. Basic research needs: • Fund fundamental space weather research studies to improve understanding of ionospheric electron density structuring, drivers and associated impacts on specific users (includes coordinating to obtain appropriate impact data -- e.g., OTHR radar data)
From page 511...
... The strategies to accomplish this goal focus on improved modeling of the atmospheric radiation environment which requires better characterizations of the geomagnetic field and better understanding of particle precipitation into the atmosphere from GCR, SEP, and radiation belts. There is an emphasis on improved measurement campaigns for model development and validation, as well as better observations to support operations.
From page 512...
... E.5 LONG-TERM GOALS AND STRATEGIES E.5.1 Long-Term Goal 1: Establish an Interconnected System of Observatories, Data Pathways, and Applied Research and Modeling Centers An interconnected space weather system -- for example, the Space Weather Aggregated Network of Systems (SWANS) detailed in the community input paper by Vourlidas et al.
From page 513...
... Mention of the concept appears in a presentation made by the co-chairs of the National Academies' Committee on Solar and Space Physics, at https://sites. nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/ssbsite/documents/webpage/ssb_189684.pdf.
From page 514...
... Goal 2: Develop physics-based, data-assimilative, thermospheric neutral-density models, including an integrated modeling framework for predicting LEO satellite and debris trajectories, capable of accurate and reliable forecasts during geomagnetic storms. This goal highlights the need for an accurate satellite drag and debris trajectory modeling system.
From page 515...
... FIGURE E-10 Organization and implementation strategy of SWANS. SOURCE: Vourlidas et al.
From page 516...
... • A Mars–Sun L1 monitor that provides continuous, unobstructed coverage of solar UV irradiance, solar activity (magnetogram, coronagraph, EUV, and X-ray imagers) , and interplanetary conditions (energetic particle detectors, solar wind and magnetic fields)
From page 517...
... • The panel suggests that NASA take full advantage of the upcoming Artemis lunar missions to design and prototype onboard space weather instrumentation packages and develop monitoring and forecasting tools for stand-alone use by astronauts. Related Priority Goals and Strategies A number of the identified short-term priority goals build toward the scientific understanding and forecast capabilities required to achieve long-term goal 2, including the following: Goal 1: Develop a reliable 12-hour lead time probabilistic >M1 of solar eruption and potentially associated SEP events forecast with a 6-hour lead time; and Goal 6: Develop a reliable probabilistic All Clear forecast with multiday lead time.
From page 518...
... • Goal 3: Characterize and monitor the space weather environment in cislunar space and on the lunar surface in support of the Artemis program. • Goal 6: Develop a reliable probabilistic All Clear forecast with multiday lead time.
From page 519...
... The panel suggests that space agencies and public entities support development of operational, commercial third-party space weather services. Recent history has shown that commercial space weather services developed on government funding often falter when the government discontinues development support, suggesting that a transition period of government-funded operations and maintenance may be necessary to foster a thriving commercial services sector.
From page 520...
... Space agencies need to ensure in particular the availability of baseline data from the Sun–Earth line, including in situ measurements from L1 and potentially from locations between L1 and the Sun. Improved SEP event forecasting, nowcasting, and monitoring would require a mission to the vicinity of L4 to monitor active regions that are beyond the west limb of the Sun as seen from Earth, but that are still magnetically connected to Earth.
From page 521...
... and autonomous UAVs for military applications are under development. All autonomous vehicles are sensitive to potential space weather impacts through disturbances in satellite navigation, HF/satellite and GNSS communication issues, and impacts by energetic particles during SEP events on onboard software or hardware.
From page 522...
... was launched in 1997 and continues to provide real-time solar wind data as it orbits the L1 libration point some 1.5 million km upstream from Earth. Many planned upcoming NASA science missions, including Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere (PUNCH)
From page 523...
... Spann Jr., Senior Scientist, Office of Space Weather Observations, NOAA/ NESDIS, "International Agency Space Weather Research and Mission Coordination Forum," presented at the 45th Scientific Assembly of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) , July 13–21, 2024, Busan, South Korea, https://www.cospar-assembly.org/uploads/documents/ Finalprogram-2024.pdf.
From page 524...
... 2021. Space Weather Science and Observation Gap Analysis for the National Aeronautics and Space Administra tion (NASA)
From page 525...
... 2023. "Solving the Space Weather Problem: A 15+ Year Roadmap to Revolutionize Space Weather Research, Protect NASA Space Assets, and Enable Robust Operations." Community input paper submitted to the Decadal Survey on Solar and Space Physics.
From page 526...
... 2023. "Implementation Plan of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan: A Report by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee, Committee on Homeland and National Security of the National Science and Technology Council." https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Implementation Plan-for-National-Space-Weather-Strategy-12212023.pdf.
From page 527...
... operational mission, which focuses on priorities from the PROSWIFT Act to track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with remote coronal imaging and to sustain space monitoring of in situ solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
From page 528...
... The recommendations from these groups are detailed in the IDA report and include the following: • Completing the national-scale magnetotelluric (MT) survey; • Addressing gaps in the ionizing radiation species and energy ranges for which data are available; • Taking new space-based observations with instruments at Earth–Sun L1 to measure solar energetic particles (SEPs)
From page 529...
... The office provides space weather assessments and anomaly analysis to support NASA robotic missions across the heliosphere. E.A.7 NASA Small Business Innovation Research Program One way NASA has engaged the commercial sector for space weather research has been through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)
From page 530...
... Value to Space Weather Research The primary value to space weather research of the BRAVO mission is associated with its detailed measurements of ionosphere–thermosphere coupling. Understanding the multiscale vertical coupling of lower ITM boundaries will improve system-level modeling of energy and mass transport in the ITM system.
From page 531...
... Low: add dosimeters COMPLETE High High High High: In situ solar wind + IMF, white light coronagraph. Low: move "L4" s/c to 90 deg FireFly High Medium Low Low Helix High Low Low Medium: Incline orbit of 1 s/c ISP Low: dosimeters Lynx High High High: comm relay OHMIC High Medium Low Medium High Medium High RESOLVE High Medium Medium High Medium High (These blow the mass budget, except GNSS RO and maybe RT DL)
From page 532...
... NOTES: IDs are identification codes used and assigned below; PR: as proposed value to space weather research; PO: as proposed value to space weather operations; AR/AO: same with mission augmentations. Acronyms are defined in Appendix H
From page 533...
... Ionospheric electron density structuring via TEC maps (2D at assumed hFoF2, or 3D tomographic) are heavily utilized in various areas of global space weather research.
From page 534...
... • BRAVO orbits transit the inner zone and slot, where charging is believed to occur and has not been directly observed. Considering this, spacecraft charging data -- such as charge/discharge sensors, and/or spacecraft potential monitoring -- would prove valuable for space weather research.
From page 535...
... Space Weather Value of the Mission as Proposed (Table E.B-4) Value to Space Weather Research The primary value to space weather research of the I-Circuit mission is associated with simultaneous sampling of precipitation (magnetospheric inputs)
From page 536...
... Operations High oval) NOTES: IDs are identification codes used and assigned below; PR: as proposed value to space weather research; PO: as proposed value to space weather operations; AR/AO: same with mission augmentations.
From page 537...
... Add energetic particle telescopes to all low-altitude spacecraft. • Hundreds keV to many MeV electrons and ions deposit considerable energy flux into the atmosphere and ionosphere systems; these ought not be neglected and are also relevant for spacecraft charging details in the proliferated LEO environment and the determination of particle cutoffs, which are used as an input to aviation radiation models.
From page 538...
... • Search Coil Magnetometer (SCM) : AC magnetic fields from 10 Hz to 20 kHz.
From page 539...
... E.B.4 Space Weather Contributions from the COMPLETE Mission Concept Mission Concept Summary COMPLETE is a flagship mission concept combining broadband spectroscopic imaging and comprehensive magnetography from multiple viewpoints around the Sun to enable tomographic reconstruction of 3D coronal magnetic fields and associated dynamic plasma properties, which provide diagnostics of energy release. The mission architecture and design achieve all objectives with three total observatories: one orbiting Lagrange point L4 and two positioned at L1 (designated L1 and L1')
From page 540...
... AR2 Understanding and improved modeling of In situ measurements of solar wind Research High inner heliospheric solar wind structure. characteristics (density, speed, temperature, mag field)
From page 541...
... The lack of any helioseismic investigation component of the mission also makes it less compelling for space weather research focused on better understanding and prediction of the solar activity cycle. While surface magnetic fields are the most visible manifestation of the solar cycle, measurement of subsurface flows from two vantage points in the ecliptic could provide valuable insights into the nature of the cyclic dynamo.
From page 542...
... on both spacecraft. These observations are needed to understand the solar wind structure, density fluctuations, composition, and magnetic field, and to determine how the solar wind varies with longitude throughout the solar cycle.
From page 543...
... It will improve our understanding of the generation of the solar magnetic field, the origin of the solar cycle, and the causes of solar activity by providing regular polar magnetic field measurements and measurements of subsurface polar flows via helioseismology. A complete simultaneous view of the solar surface will help to understand and monitor the whole development of the active regions critical to understanding solar flares, large eruptions of fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
From page 544...
... This provides observations needed to understand the interior of the Sun, such as rising magnetic fields of emerging active regions. These measurements are also immediately crucial to improve solar magnetic field and solar wind modeling, as the primary input to all solar wind models is the full-Sun photospheric magnetic field.
From page 545...
... The primary operational value of the low-latency data stream would be the daily full-Sun magnetic field measurements, including polar regions, that will significantly improve forecasting models of both background solar wind and CME propagation compared to current solar wind models, which use 27-day synoptic maps and extrapolated data for the polar and flux transport models for farside regions. CME observations from multiple viewpoints, including above the ecliptic, would add substantially to our
From page 546...
... will lead to the continuous assessment of the birth-to-death process of active regions needed to improve the modeling and predictive capabilities of solar eruptions that are the root cause of flares, CMEs, and solar energetic particle events. It will also improve synoptic measurements used as an input to operational solar wind models.
From page 547...
... , multi point, in situ measurements of the magnetic field and solar wind plasma properties are necessary. The same ICME has to be observed simultaneously by at least four spacecraft at different azimuth angles to detect deformations from the
From page 548...
... , and a 3-year primary mission that will make entirely new in situ measurements of solar wind and CME structure and SEP extent in the inner heliosphere. The remote sensing instrument suite would add the ability to image CMEs and possibly solar wind structures from novel viewpoints in the ecliptic plane upstream of the current or planned Lagrangian point orbit locations.
From page 549...
... In situ measurements of solar wind Research High density, velocity and magnetic field measurements will improve "background" solar wind models through which CMEs and SEPs are propagated. Mission Augmentations Impact on Research IDs Mission Value for SWx Suggested Augmentation or Operations?
From page 550...
... Out-of-ecliptic observations from inclined orbit. • Adding an out-of-ecliptic spacecraft to the HELIX constellation would increase its value to space weather research because currently all measurements of solar wind, CME, and SEPs have been from the ecliptic.
From page 551...
... Particularly for the Bz characterization, HELIX could increase the warning lead time for incoming southward Bz structure, the main driver of severe geomagnetic storms, significantly from its near-Venus orbital region.
From page 552...
... flux over several solar cycles. Tying these measurements to co-temporal measurements of the solar magnetic field will yield a better understanding of the interplay between solar activity and ACR/ GCR flux.
From page 553...
... Suggested Augmentation to the Mission to Enhance Its Space Weather Value There are no envisioned augmentations to the ISP mission that would enhance its value to space weather research or operations. However, the mission could potentially increase its benefit to space weather applications, in particular future deep space vehicle design, by augmenting its payload with a compact dosimeter instrument that would record total ionizing dose information throughout the mission profile as well as experiments to qualify and quantify long-term degradation and adverse effects during decades-long, deep-space operations.
From page 554...
... . Space weather research may also benefit from studies using Lynx auroral observations to link auroral activity to the satellite charging environment in LEO or predictions of GIC conditions affecting the power grid.
From page 555...
... Operations Medium of space radiation environment throughout Earth's radiation belts. AR1 Relating observed satellite Add spacecraft charging sensors (e.g., Research High charging environment to charge-discharge monitors)
From page 556...
... are critical for developing benchmarks and climatological models plus space situational awareness and hindcasting models for satellite risk mitigation and anomaly resolution. Suggested Augmentation to the Mission to Enhance Its Space Weather Value Value to Space Weather Research • AR1: (High)
From page 557...
... With the augmentation of a low-latency, continuous data link and adequate instrument requirements for the energetic particle instruments, Lynx could provide near-continuous monitoring of radiation belt intensities throughout the inner magnetosphere. • AO4: (Medium)
From page 558...
... These data could readily be incorporated into empirical magnetic field models that are sometimes used operationally. The data could also be used for data assimilation and (in LEO)
From page 559...
... Observations required to improve Research and Research: High models of satellite charging Operations Operations: environments throughout geospace. Medium PR2 PR3, PO1 Auroral impacts: Ground- Observations of low-altitude Research Medium induced currents, clutter, electromagnetic fields constrain auroral scintillation.
From page 560...
... Considering this, spacecraft charging data -- such as charge/discharge sensors, and/or spacecraft potential monitoring -- would prove valuable for space weather research. There is no flight history of surface charging/discharge sensor in LEO, and a spinner is especially helpful to learn about attitude/illumination effects on surface charging phenomena.
From page 561...
... • Near-real-time magnetometer and electron velocity distributions from Mother and Daughter could help identify FACs and electrojets. Real-time magnetometer data from Mother and Daughter provide some value in constraining global magnetic field models, which can be used for mapping hazards around the magnetosphere and constraining data assimilative space weather models.
From page 562...
... Value to Space Weather Research • PR1: (High) Neutral density measurements of the caliber provided by Resolve will dramatically enhance information about spatial and temporal scales of thermospheric density variations and enable key science in ionosphere–thermosphere coupling.
From page 563...
... This will have value for space weather research via enhancing the physics of whole atmosphere models. Value to Space Weather Operations • PO1: (High)
From page 564...
... • Magnetometer: Interplanetary magnetic field vector. • Ion-Electron Spectrometer: Solar wind electrons and ion distributions and moments.
From page 565...
... improved CME arrival times. PR3 Improved solar wind In situ solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements Research High modeling.
From page 566...
... • PR03: (High) In situ solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements will provide additional measurements with which to validate solar wind models, including in the vastly undersampled regions at high solar latitudes.
From page 567...
... • With the addition of a second, identical spacecraft phased by 120 to 180 degrees in the same orbital plane, co-temporal observations of both poles could be achieved, significantly increasing the science return on global coronal magnetic field structure and high-speed solar wind characteristics relevant to space weather forecasting research. • Significant solar coverage could be achieved in combination with Earth or L1, L5, L4, and STEREO-A (when it is on the far side of the Sun from Earth)
From page 568...
... of active regions not visible from the Sun–Earth line. Furthermore, the use of polar magnetic field data in solar wind models would need to go through a period of research and validation before being suitable for transition into space weather operations.
From page 569...
... in LEO (350 km × 1,500 km) with four instruments, each making in situ measurements, as follows: • Core Plasma Analyzer: Distributions of atomic and molecular ions, and pitch angle distributions of core electrons, the cold plasma that safely discharges surface charging.
From page 570...
... These data could readily be incorporated into empirical magnetic field models that are sometimes used operationally. The data could also be used for data assimilation and (in LEO)
From page 571...
... PR3, PR4, Auroral impacts: Ground- Observations of low-altitude Research Medium PO1 induced currents, electromagnetic fields constrain auroral clutter, scintillation. dynamics.
From page 572...
... Considering this, spacecraft charging data -- such as charge/discharge sensors, and/or spacecraft potential monitoring -- would prove valuable for space weather research. There is no flight history of surface charging/discharge sensor in LEO, and a spinner is especially helpful to learn about attitude/illumination effects on surface charging phenomena.
From page 573...
... • Near-real-time magnetometer and electron velocity distributions from M1, and M2 could help identify FACs and electrojets. Real-time magnetometer data from M3, M4, and M5 provide some value in constraining global magnetic field models, which can be used for mapping hazards around the magnetosphere and constraining data assimilative space weather models.
From page 574...
... GONG also provides the primary global solar magnetic field inputs to operational solar wind models such as the WSA-Enlil model. Continued support for GONG and, as discussed in the NOAA Science Advisory Board report (NOAA SAB 2023)
From page 575...
... Threat 5 -- Bz network ngGONG to continue synoptic magnetogram maps field maps used as an input of interruption of solar as well as helioseismology detection of far side to the WSA-ENLIL+Cone magnetograms used in active regions and near-side emergence events model running operationally operational solar wind as part of ongoing research. GONG synoptic at NOAA SWPC and USAF models if not started by magnetic field maps are also used by the CLEAR 557th Weather Wing to support ~2025.
From page 576...
... Although a "proxy" for solar ultraviolet models running operationally is made by the Dominion 10 -- Solar irradiance that will likely be replaced in models at NOAA SWPC. Astrophysical Observatory cycle by direct measurements, the solar cycle historical Used by SRAG for in Penticton, Canada.
From page 577...
... USGS SWPC uses USGS USGS operates 6 Critical Very 6 -- GIC magnetometer geomagnetic data for the geomagnetic observatories Important network operational geoelectric field in CONUS. Regional nowcast products.
From page 578...
... of Excellence to develop observing systems. There data assimilation, including is a worldwide network meteor radar-derived of near-real-time meteor neutral winds, into NCAR radars being managed by WACCM-X and NOAA NASA/GSFC.
From page 579...
... . have not been enough Observations for data measurements measurements during large assimilative aviation radiation (LET spectra and SEP events.
From page 580...
... International partnerships are required to leverage the global neutron monitor network to ensure regional information. Ground-Based Magnetometer Measurements Ground-based magnetometers are indispensable tools for monitoring variations in Earth's magnetic field caused by solar activity and space weather events.
From page 581...
... Given the critical importance of ground-based observations in advancing space weather research and prediction capabilities, the panel suggests that NOAA significantly increases its support for ground-based measurement initiatives. This includes allocating resources for the maintenance, enhancement, and modernization of observatory networks like GONG, as recommended to the NOAA Science Advisory Board; neutron monitors; GNSS observations; ground-based magnetometers; and solar radio flux monitoring.
From page 582...
... 2022. "ICME Structure and Evolution in the Inner Heliosphere." Community input paper submitted to the Decadal Survey on Solar and Space Physics.


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.