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From page 83... ...
(JHU APL 2024a) On February 3, 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm.
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From page 84... ...
Artemis program targeting a permanent presence on the lunar surface and, eventually, a crewed mission to Mars. The harsh and unpredictable radiation conditions outside Earth's shielding atmosphere and geomagnetic field challenge the solar and space physics community to provide an adequately detailed scientific basis for the monitoring, prediction, and protection mechanisms needed to protect the crew.
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From page 85... ...
Advances in space weather capabilities can only be achieved through new observations from the Sun to Earth, improved modeling of the systems and their interactions, and implementation of advanced technologies that go from observing systems to data distribution, computational models, and prediction systems. Thus, the solar and space physics community plays a critical role in the space weather enterprise.
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From page 86... ...
that capture the drivers, responses, and impacts of space weather: • System of Systems: Drivers of Space Weather • Space Weather Responses of the Physical System • Space Weather Impacts on Infrastructure and Human Health Unlike basic research, much of space weather research is focused on the development of information products that assist in economically significant decision-making, including national security, health, and safety. Thus, the research focus areas under these three themes are motivated by research outcomes rather than guiding questions, as is the case for basic research focus areas introduced in Chapter 2.
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From page 87... ...
Space traffic management costs associated with collision avoidance are already significant; an ability to predict the thermospheric density would relieve some monitoring needs and reduce the risks and losses associated with the increasingly probable collisions in a highly crowded environment. Monitoring and modeling the LEO space environment, known as space situational awareness, is thus of critical importance for the next decade.
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From page 88... ...
sets national priorities with detailed actions mandated in the PROSWIFT Act, the decadal survey strategy addresses those issues that have strong ties to the solar and space physics research community and have high potential for major advances in the next decade. Parallel to the science themes and guiding questions introduced in Chapter 2, Section 3.2 provides a detailed discussion of the space weather research focus areas (see Figure 3-2)
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From page 89... ...
The Sun emits high-energy particles, plasma clouds, and photon radiation, each of which have their specific space weather impacts. Increasing the accuracy and lead time for a prediction of when a solar eruption will occur is imperative for mitigating the impacts of hazardous energetic particles that can reach Earth within only tens of minutes (see Figure 3-5)
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From page 90... ...
While it is clear that avoiding collisions in LEO and protecting humans from radiation storms as humanity ventures further into space are high priorities for the next decade, the prioritization and sequencing of the integrated research strategy requires ongoing assessments of numerical modeling skill, infrastructure risk, and anticipated return on investment. 3.2.1 Theme 1 -- System-of-Systems Drivers of Space Weather Solar Magnetic Eruptions and Solar Energetic Particles Solar magnetic eruptions, or just solar eruptions, are any episodic release of energy and are the root cause phenomenon behind all extreme space weather (see Figures 3-2 and 3-6)
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From page 91... ...
. Coronal Mass Ejections CMEs impacting Earth's space environment drive the largest geomagnetic storms and associated space weather impacts.
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From page 92... ...
The outcome of this research focus area is a 12-hour lead time forecast of the CME magnetic field and a 2–3 hour upwind nowcast of other CME characteristics. The magnetic field forecast requires continuous, multiviewpoint, remote observations of CMEs combined with realistic numerical models of their propagation through the solar wind.
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From page 93... ...
physicsbased model that provides the thermospheric density and composition and includes the effects of solar activity. The outcome of this research focus area is to develop an accurate and reliable thermospheric density model that incorporates advanced data assimilation capabilities and produces a 24–48 hour forecast of thermospheric density during geomagnetic storm conditions.
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From page 94... ...
The red, yellow, and green traffic lights indicate the urgency for mitigating actions to maintain operational safety. In the next decade, space weather research will contribute an accurate and reliable thermospheric density model to help develop mitigating actions.
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From page 95... ...
3.2.3 Theme 3 -- Space Weather Impacts on Infrastructure and Human Health Crewed Mission Radiation The outcome of this research focus area is to characterize and monitor the space weather environment in cislunar space and on the lunar surface in support of the Artemis program. For crewed missions, especially those outside Earth's magnetosphere, the primary space weather risk is the high fluence of energetic particle radiation that comprises the SEPs and the galactic cosmic ray population, which can cause both acute and long-term health impacts and damage spacecraft systems.
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From page 96... ...
Low Earth Orbit Satellite and Debris Trajectories The outcome of this research focus area is to develop an integrated modeling framework for predicting LEO satellite and debris trajectories during geomagnetic storms that combines an accurate space weather environmental forecasting model, an advanced satellite forcing model, and a model that enables object track forecasting. As one element of the process, a dedicated mission to explore gas–surface interactions and forcing at different LEO altitudes and latitudes would be needed to specify the aerodynamics involved in the processes, which falls outside the scope of solar and space physics.
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From page 97... ...
These recommendations are part of an integrated research strategy for solar and space physics, thus are also referred to in Chapter 5. 3.3.1 Implementation of the Research-to-Operations-to-Research Framework In December 2023, NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DAF signed an MoA outlining the collaborations needed to improve transitioning space weather research into operational forecasts and to enhance feedback from operational applications into research, known as R2O2R.
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From page 98... ...
Sustainability, NSTC departments and agencies 2019 National Space Weather Strategy NSTC Identify strategic objectives and actions and Action Plan to achieve a space-weather-ready nation 2019 Federal Operating Concept for Department of Homeland Security Prepare for and respond to space Impending Space Weather Events weather events 2020 Promoting Research and P.L. 116-181, 116th Congress Prepare and protect against social and Observations of Space Weather economic impacts of space weather to Improve the Forecasting of Tomorrow (PROSWIFT)
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From page 99... ...
3328. basic research and space weather application development, NSF is encouraged to continue its current efforts to support space weather research in all parts of the chain, including fundamental physical processes, model and method development, transition to operations, and application development, to meet the PROSWIFT Act mandates.
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From page 100... ...
Conclusion: This decadal survey outlines a number of important research focus areas that are not further prioritized owing to lack of accurate understanding of current and future user needs. However, the decadal survey committee recognizes the growing space traffic management problems at LEO caused by increased number of spacecraft and debris as a critically important issue.
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From page 101... ...
space weather research programs (such as NSF's Advancing National Space Weather Expertise and Research toward Societal Resilience [ANSWERS] and NASA's Heliophysics Space Weather Programs)
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From page 102... ...
Space traffic management and broader space situational awareness at LEO requires improved understanding of variations, especially of the thermospheric density in response to solar and magnetospheric activity. Space weather research and modeling programs make important contributions to these high-priority efforts.
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From page 103... ...
The new Space Weather Program within NASA's Heliophysics Division is an ideal vehicle to test and validate concepts and to demonstrate the value of measurements that would then be candidates for long-term acquisition through operational systems. In the next decade, the exploitation of data for space weather research will take advantage of both NASA's and NOAA's satellite fleets.
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From page 104... ...
2022–2027 Commercial Weather Seeks measurements from Global Navigation Satellite System receivers that will enable Data Pilot Round 3: derivation of ionospheric products that meet the needs of operational space weather Space Weather Data models and applications. Ionosphere measurements of total electron content and scintillation were provided and are being assessed.
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From page 105... ...
missions during preformulation and should look for opportunities to include space weather enhancements on other federal agency missions. Such investments could be realized through the NASA Heliophysics Space Weather Program (see Recommendation 3-5)
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From page 106... ...
To promote basic and applied research in space weather, the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and International Living with a Star commissioned a roadmap for space weather research.
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From page 107... ...
neutral density 24-hour forecast of thermospheric density during Physical System geomagnetic storms for LEO spacecraft operators Ionospheric and magnetospheric states Nowcast of ionospheric and magnetospheric state parameters including radiation environment, auroras, and ionospheric currents Reanalysis Reanalysis capability for forecast/nowcast models to assess and validate models and forecast methods Space Weather Impacts on Crewed mission radiation Characterize and monitor space radiation Infrastructure and Human Health environment for crewed and robotic missions Aviation radiation environment Aviation radiation nowcasts and forecasts during large SEP events Spacecraft effects Forecasts of spacecraft effects with multiday lead time Ionospheric high-frequency (HF) signal 1-hour ionospheric HF signal propagation propagation disturbance forecasts LEO satellite and debris trajectories Model for LEO satellite and debris trajectories Geoelectric field 1-hour geoelectric field variation forecasts with 200 km spatial resolution for power system operators 3.4 SYNOPSIS This chapter has mapped challenging research goals (Section 3.2)
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From page 108... ...
and distributed ground-based observation networks Space Weather Responses of the Low Earth orbit (LEO) neutral density Environmental measurements at LEO with good Physical System altitude and latitude coverage Ionospheric and magnetospheric states Precipitating particle populations from all latitudes at LEO; polar cap potential; field-aligned currents; ionospheric irregularities; SEP access; and energetic particle and plasma transport, acceleration, and loss Reanalysis Repositories of state space models of the magnetosphere and the ionosphere–thermosphere– mesosphere system, spanning many solar cycles Space Weather Impacts on Crewed mission radiation Continuous monitoring of the radiation environment Infrastructure and Human from the LEO to lunar orbit; for Martian missions Health for entire inner heliosphere Aviation radiation environment SEP timing, intensity, and spectra Spacecraft effects Energetic particle environment in the magnetosphere Ionospheric high-frequency signal Ground-based coverage in key geographic areas, propagation satellite-based radio occultation LEO satellite and debris trajectories Gas-surface interactions and forcing at different LEO altitudes and latitudes Geoelectric field Geomagnetic field variations at high spatial and temporal resolution Research advances that occur over the next decade will be an essential element of the recommended improvements to the R2O2R cycle involving government agencies, academia, private industry, and international partners.
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From page 109... ...
2023. "The Thermosphere is a Drag: The 2022 Starlink Incident and the Threat of Geomagnetic Storms to Low Earth Orbit Space Operations." Space Weather 21(3)
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From page 110... ...
2023. "Implementation Plan of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan: A Report by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee Committee on Home land and National Security of the National Science and Technology Council." https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/ uploads/2023/12/Implementation-Plan-for-National-Space-Weather-Strategy-12212023.pdf.
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