NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.Washington, D.C.20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Council of the National Academy of Sciences. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. DE-AM01-99PO80016, Task Order DE-AT01-00NN40153, A000 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Energy and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
Additional copies of this report are available from the Committee on International Security and Arms Control, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418, (202) 334-2811, email@example.com ; the report is also available online at http://www.nap.edu .
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences . All rights reserved.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL
JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy & Director
Program in Science, Technology, & Public Policy, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JOHN D. STEINBRUNER (Vice-Chair), Professor and Director,
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
WILLIAM F. BURNS (Study Co-Chair), Major General (USA, Ret.),
GEORGE LEE BUTLER, President,
Second Chance Foundation, Omaha, Nebraska
STEPHEN COHEN, Senior Fellow,
Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
The Eisenhower Institute, Washington D.C.*
STEVE FETTER (Study Co-Chair),
School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus,
Institute for Defense Analyses, and Senior Fellow, National Academy of Engineering, Washington D.C.
RICHARD L. GARWIN,
Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation, Yorktown Heights, New York
SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., President,
Arms Control Association, Washington D.C.
CATHERINE KELLEHER, Director,
Aspen Institute Berlin, Berlin, Germany
CHARLES LARSON, Admiral (USN, Ret.)
U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland
JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University Professor,
The Rockefeller University, New York, New York *
MATTHEW MESELSON, Thomas Dudley Cabot Professor of the Natural Sciences,
Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ALBERT NARATH, President (retired),
Energy and Environment Sector, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico
WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY, Professor and Director Emeritus,
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California
C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Professor,
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles
JONATHAN D. POLLACK, Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and Director,
Strategic Research, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, ex officio, Foreign Secretary,
National Academy of Sciences, Washington D.C.
DAVID HAFEMEISTER, Study Director
JO L. HUSBANDS, Director
CHRISTOPHER ELDRIDGE, Research Associate
LA’FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Financial Associate
These members of CISAC did not participate in the preparation of the interim report.