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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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A REVIEW OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY

Committee to Review the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study

Ocean Studies Board

Water Science and Technology Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report and the committee were supported by a grant from the United States Army Corps of Engineers and the Florida Department of Community Affairs. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.

International Standard Book Number 0-309-08346-X

Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 202-334-2714 http://www.nap.edu

Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY

SCOTT W. NIXON, Chair,

University of Rhode Island, Narragansett

GEORGE H. DALRYMPLE,

Everglades Research Group, Inc., Homestead, Florida

ROBERT E. DEYLE,

Florida State University, Tallahassee

WAYNE C. HUBER,

Oregon State University, Corvallis

MARK S. PETERSON,

University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs

STEPHEN POLASKY,

University of Minnesota, St. Paul

NORBERT P. PSUTY,

Rutgers University, Cook Campus, New Brunswick, New Jersey

MALCOLM D. RIVKIN,

University of Maryland, College Park

DANIEL P. SHEER,

HydroLogics, Inc., Columbia, Maryland

Staff

JOANNE C. BINTZ, Study Director,

Ocean Studies Board

NANCY A. CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant,

Ocean Studies Board

The work of this committee was overseen by the Ocean Studies Board and the Water Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD

NANCY RABALAIS, Chair,

Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Chauvin

ARTHUR BAGGEROER,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

JAMES COLEMAN,

Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge

LARRY CROWDER,

Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina

G. BRENT DALRYMPLE,

Oregon State University, Corvalis

RICHARD B. DERISO,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

EARL DOYLE,

Shell Oil (Retired), Sugar Land, Texas

ROBERT DUCE,

Texas A&M University, College Station

WAYNE R. GEYER,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

D. JAY GRIMES,

University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs

MIRIAM KASTNER,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

CINDY LEE,

State University of New York at Stony Brook

RALPH S. LEWIS,

Connecticut Geological Survey, Hartford

BONNIE MCCAY,

Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

JULIAN P. MCcREARY, JR.,

University of Hawaii, Honolulu

JACQUELINE MICHEL,

Research Planning, Inc., Columbus, South Carolina

RAM MOHAN,

Gahagan & Bryant Associates, Inc., Baltimore, Maryland

SCOTT NIXON,

University of Rhode Island, Narragansett

JON SUTINEN,

University of Rhode Island, Kingston

NANCY TARGETT,

University of Delaware, Lewes

PAUL TOBIN,

Xtria, Chantilly, Virginia

Staff

MORGAN GOPNIK, Director

SUSAN ROBERTS, Senior Program Officer

DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer

JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer

JENNIFER MERRILL, Program Officer

TERRY SCHAEFER, Program Officer

ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer

JOHN DANDELSKI, Research Associate

SHIREL SMITH, Administrative Associate

JODI BACHIM, Senior Project Assistant

NANCY CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant

DENISE GREENE, Senior Project Assistant

DARLA KOENIG, Senior Project Assistant

JULIE PULLEY, Project Assistant

ALISON SCHRUM, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
×

WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD

RICHARD G. LUTHY, Chair,

Stanford University, Stanford, California

JOAN B. ROSE, Vice-Chair,

University of South Florida, St. Petersburg

RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING,

Washington State University, Pullman

GREGORY B. BAECHER,

University of Maryland, College Park

KENNETH R. BRADBURY,

Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison

JAMES CROOK,

CH2MHill, Boston, Massachusetts

EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU,

University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

PETER GLEICK,

Pacific Institute, Oakland, California

STEVEN P. GLOSS,

University of Wyoming, Laramie

JOHN LETEY, JR.,

University of California, Riverside

DIANE M. MCKNIGHT,

University of Colorado, Boulder

CHRISTINE L. MOE,

Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia

RUTHERFORD H. PLATT,

University of Massachusetts, Amherst

JERALD L. SCHNOOR,

University of Iowa, Iowa City

LEONARD SHABMAN,

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg

R. RHODES TRUSSELL,

Montgomery Watson, Pasadena, California

Staff

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director

LAURA J. EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer

JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Senior Staff Officer

WILLIAM S. LOGAN, Senior Staff Officer

MARK C. GIBSON, Staff Officer

M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate

PATRICIA JONES KERSHAW, Study/Research Associate

ELLEN A. DE GUZMAN, Research Associate

ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant

ANIKE L. JOHNSON, Project Assistant

JON Q. SANDERS, Project Assistant

Page viii Cite
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Acknowledgments

This report was greatly enhanced by the committee’s interaction with the contractors from URS Corporation, Inc., including Ricardo N. Calvo, Debra L. Childs, Ronald Giovannelli, Robert C. Hudson, Jr., Stephen R. Lienhart, and collaborator Sylvia Vargas of Wallace Roberts & Todd. The committee would also like to acknowledge the efforts of those who gave presentations at the January 2002 National Research Council (NRC) meeting: James Harvey of the Florida Fishing Guides Association and Bill Kruczynski of the Environmental Protection Agency. These talks helped set the stage for fruitful discussions in the closed sessions that followed. We would like to thank the sponsors of this study and their representatives, Deborah Peterson from the Army Corps of Engineers’ Bureau of Local Planning, and Ann Lazar from the State of Florida’s Department of Community Affairs who also provided valuable input and information.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

Neil M. Fennessey, University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth

Anne E. Giblin, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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David R. Godschalk, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

Louis Gross, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

Lance H. Gunderson, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia

Walter Milon, University of Central Florida, Orlando

John C. Ogden, Florida Institute of Oceanography, St. Petersburg

Christopher Rooney, Carmody and Torrence LLP, New Haven, Connecticut

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Robert Frosch of Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, who served as Monitor and by Dr. Donald Boesch, University of Maryland, Cambridge, MD, who served as Coordinator. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2002. A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10316.
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Nearly thirty years ago the Florida Keys were designated as an Area of Critical State Concern. The state recognized that Monroe County contained many valuable natural, environmental, historical, and economic resources that required thoughtful management. In 1996, as a result of many years of discussion, negotiation, and litigation, the Florida Administration Commission issued an Executive Order requiring the preparation of a "carrying capacity analysis" for the Florida Keys. To fulfill this requirement, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Florida Department of Community Affairs jointly sponsored the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study (FKCCS). The key component of this study is a carrying capacity analysis model (CCAM) that provides a technical tool for state and local jurisdictions to "determine the ability of the Florida Keys ecosystem, and the various segments thereof, to withstand all impacts of additional land development activities."

This National Research Council (NRC) report provides a critical review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study: Test Carrying Capacity Analysis Model, First Draft, hereafter referred to as the Draft CCAM. This independent review offers critical commentary in order to assist the sponsors and contractors in making final adjustments to their report and the Carrying Capacity Analysis Model.

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