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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

AVOIDING SURPRISE IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES

Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This is a report of work supported by Contract HHM402-04-C-0015 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number 0-309-09605-7

Limited copies of this report are available from:

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Room 940

National Research Council

500 Fifth Street, N.W.

Washington, DC 20001

(202) 334-3118

Additional copies are available from:
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Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
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COMMITTEE ON DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS AND REVIEWS

RUTH A. DAVID, Chair,

ANSER, Inc., Arlington, Virginia

STEVEN R.J. BRUECK,

University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

STEPHEN W. DREW, Science Partners,

LLC, Summit, New Jersey

ALAN H. EPSTEIN,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

ROBERT A. FUHRMAN,

Lockheed Corporation (retired), Pebble Beach, California

SHARON C. GLOTZER,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN,

Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan

DIANE E. GRIFFIN,

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

J. JEROME HOLTON,

Defense Group, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia

MICHAEL R. LADISCH,

Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

DARRELL D.E. LONG,

University of California, Santa Cruz

FREDERICK R. LOPEZ,

Raytheon Company, Goleta, California

RICHARD M. OSGOOD, JR.,

Columbia University, New York

STEWART D. PERSONICK,

Private Consultant, Bernardsville, New Jersey

ALTON D. ROMIG, JR.,

Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico

S. SHANKAR SASTRY,

University of California, Berkeley

JAMES B. SMITH,

Raytheon Company, Tucson, Arizona

CAMILLO J. TAYLOR,

University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia

DIANNE S. WILEY,

The Boeing Company, Arlington, Virginia

Staff

MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead Board Director

DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director

CARTER W. FORD, Research Associate

LANITA R. JONES, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

Preface

The development and writing of this report presented considerable challenges in terms of both the study schedule and the need to avoid conveying sensitive U.S. vulnerabilities to potential adversaries. Meeting both challenges has been difficult for the study committee and staff, but every effort was made to respond to the stated need of the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for maximum openness.

I wish to express my appreciation to the members of the committee for their contributions to the preparation of this report. The committee is also grateful to the staff of the Technology Warning Division of the DIA for its sponsorship and active participation throughout the study.

The committee greatly appreciates the support and assistance of National Research Council staff members Michael Clarke, Daniel Talmage, LaNita Jones, and Carter Ford in the production of this report.

Ruth A. David, Chair

Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Bishnu Atal (NAS, NAE), AT&T Laboratories (retired),

Randy Katz (NAE), University of California, Berkeley,

Leslie Kenne, LK Associates,

Joshua Lederberg (NAS, IOM), The Rockefeller University,

John Lyons (NAE), U.S. Army Research Laboratory (retired),

Louis Marquet, Consultant,

S. Thomas Picraux, Arizona State University, and

Eugene Sevin (NAE), Consultant.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Hermann, Global Technology Partners. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

3

 

CHALLENGES TO INFORMATION SUPERIORITY

 

28

   

 Maintaining Information Superiority in the Face of Globalization and Commercialization,

 

29

   

 Trusted Software,

 

30

   

 Trusted Hardware and Foundries,

 

31

   

 Supercomputing,

 

31

   

 Ubiquitous Sensing, Computing, and Communications Systems,

 

32

   

 Fusion of Computing and Communications with Other Novel Technologies,

 

32

   

 Potential Observables That May Indicate Emerging Threats,

 

32

   

 Basic Ways to Degrade or Neutralize Information Superiority,

 

34

   

 Exploitation,

 

35

   

 Corruption,

 

35

   

 Disruption,

 

35

   

 Destruction,

 

36

   

 Analogies in Non-Warfighting Scenarios,

 

36

   

 Committee Focus: Communications and Sensing Systems,

 

36

   

 Potential Pathways for Disruption, Denial, or Degradation of Communications and Sensing Capabilities,

 

37

   

 Identification and Assessment Steps of the Committee Methodology,

 

38

   

 System/Network Attacks,

 

38

   

 Sensor Attacks,

 

40

   

 Summary,

 

42

   

 References,

 

43

4

 

FUTURE THREATS TO U.S. AIRPOWER IN URBAN WARFARE

 

45

   

 Introduction,

 

45

   

 Airpower in Urban Warfare,

 

46

   

 Challenges to U.S. Airpower,

 

47

   

 Offensive Techniques That May Be Employed by an Adversary,

 

48

   

 Defensive Techniques That May Be Employed by an Adversary,

 

49

   

 Committee Focus: Systems That Can Degrade U.S. Airpower,

 

50

   

 Man-Portable Air Defense Systems,

 

50

   

 Milli to Micro Air Vehicles and Missiles,

 

51

   

 Identification and Assessment Steps of Committee Methodology,

 

53

   

 Increased Range and/or Reduced Signature,

 

53

   

 Enhanced Guidance, Navigation, and/or Targeting,

 

53

   

 Enhanced Lethality,

 

53

   

 Counter-BLUE,

 

53

   

 Summary,

 

60

   

 References,

 

60

5

 

COMBATANT IDENTIFICATION IN URBAN WARFARE

 

62

   

 Introduction,

 

62

   

 Key Features of Foreign Urban Warfare,

 

62

   

 Committee Focus: Capability to Discriminate Between Enemy Combatants and Noncombatants,

 

63

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Charts

FIGURES

Figure 1-1

 

Shares of total world R&D, 2003,

 

12

Figure 1-2

 

U.S. R&D funding by source, 1953–2003,

 

14

Figure 2-1

 

Concepts constituting the basic framework for U.S. military capability as defined by Joint Vision 2020,

 

22

Figure 5-1

 

TransScreen, power holographic projection creates the illusion of life-size, holographic images,

 

67

Figure 5-2

 

Example of a projected three-dimensional image that appears to be floating above the hand,

 

67

Figure 5-3

 

Life-size hologram,

 

68

Figure E-1

 

Spatial and temporal resolution capabilities of different neuroimaging modalities,

 

118

TABLES

Table 1-1

 

The Changing Nature of Defense Technology,

 

13

Table 1-2

 

The Nature of Innovation Is Changing,

 

13

Table 1-3

 

Challenges Identified for the National Nanotechnology Initiative,

 

17

Table 3-1

 

Potential Observables and Sources of Information on Potential Threats to Communications Capabilities,

 

33

Table 3-2

 

Examples of Sensor Modalities and Their Potential Utility,

 

41

Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

BOXES

Box ES-1

 

Statement of Task,

 

2

Box ES-2

 

Report Statement of Task,

 

2

Box ES-3

 

Proposed Methodology for Technology Warning,

 

4

Box 1-1

 

Candidate Technologies Likely to Impact National Security by the 2015 Time Frame, Identified by a Panel of Experts,

 

16

Box 2-1

 

Relevant Definitions from Joint Vision 2020 Serving as Foundation for Assessment Methodology,

 

23

Box 2-2

 

Proposed Methodology for Technology Warning,

 

24

CHARTS

Chart 2-1

 

Example of Technology Assessment Chart,

 

24

Chart 3-1

 

Technology Assessment: Electromagnetic Pulse Generators,

 

38

Chart 3-2

 

Technology Assessment: Electromagnetic Pulse Generators,

 

39

Chart 3-3

 

Technology Assessment: Radio-Frequency Jammers,

 

39

Chart 3-4

 

Technology Assessment: Modular Network Nodes,

 

39

Chart 3-5

 

Technology Assessment: Malicious Code,

 

40

Chart 3-6

 

Capability Identification: Sensor Jamming,

 

41

Chart 3-7

 

Capability Identification: Camouflage,

 

43

Chart 3-8

 

Capability Identification: Sensor Spoofing,

 

43

Chart 4-1

 

Technology Assessment: Jet Engines,

 

54

Chart 4-2

 

Technology Assessment: Storable Liquid Propellant and Micro Rocket Engines,

 

54

Chart 4-3

 

Technology Assessment. Higher-Performance Small Rocket Engines,

 

55

Chart 4-4

 

Technology Assessment: Nanoscale Surface Machining,

 

55

Chart 4-5

 

Technology Assessment: Electronically Tuned Surface Coatings,

 

55

Chart 4-6

 

Technology Assessment: Negative Index of Refraction Materials,

 

55

Chart 4-7

 

Technology Assessment: Low-Cost, Uncooled, Low-Noise Infrared Detector Arrays,

 

56

Chart 4-8

 

Technology Assessment: Narrowband, Tunable Frequency Agile, Imaging Infrared Optical Filters,

 

56

Chart 4-9

 

Technology Assessment: High-Accuracy Microelectromechanical Systems Gyros and Accelerometers,

 

56

Chart 4-10

 

Technology Assessment: Automated, Ad Hoc, Cellular Phone/Computer Systems,

 

57

Chart 4-11

 

Technology Assessment: High-Speed Processor Chips and Mega-Flash Memories,

 

57

Chart 4-12

 

Technology Assessment: Large Geographic and Economic Web Databases,

 

57

Chart 4-13

 

Technology Assessment: Increased Energy Density or Slow-Burning Energetic Materials,

 

57

Chart 4-14

 

Technology Assessment: High-Power, Low-Cost Microwave Radio-Frequency Chips and Arrays,

 

58

Chart 4-15

 

Technology Assessment: Very Low Cost Radio-Frequency Proximity Fuses,

 

58

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

Chart 4-16

 

Technology Assessment: Increased-Speed Digital Signal Processor and Processor Chips,

 

58

Chart 4-17

 

Technology Assessment: Very High Pulse Power Systems,

 

58

Chart 4-18

 

Technology Assessment: Bioagents,

 

59

Chart 4-19

 

Technology Assessment: Tactical Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse,

 

59

Chart 4-20

 

Technology Assessment: Very Low Cost, Compact Near-Infrared Images,

 

59

Chart 4-21

 

Technology Assessment: Wireless Technology, Frequency Modulation Techniques, Global Positioning System Crypto Capture,

 

59

Chart 4-22

 

Technology Assessment: Multistatic Systems,

 

60

Chart 4-23

 

Technology Assessment: Strong Commercial Encryption for Personal Digital Assistants and Cellular Phones,

 

60

Chart 5-1

 

Technology Assessment: Tunable Lasers,

 

65

Chart 5-2

 

Technology Assessment: False Radio-Frequency Identification Signals,

 

65

Chart 5-3

 

Technology Assessment: Projection of Realistic-Looking Real-Time Optical or Infrared Images,

 

68

Chart 5-4

 

Technology Assessment: Adaptive Materials,

 

69

Chart 5-5

 

Technology Assessment: Bacteriorhodopsin,

 

70

Chart 5-6

 

Technology Assessment: Transgenic Crops,

 

71

Chart 6-1

 

Technology Assessment: Exploitation of DNA Databases for Covert Communications,

 

77

Chart 6-2

 

Technology Assessment: Bacteriorhodopsin for Holographic Messaging and Development of Advanced Holographic Technologies,

 

79

Chart 6-3

 

Technology Assessment: Development and Distribution of Norovirus Organisms,

 

80

Chart 6-4

 

Technology Assessment: Development and Distribution of Avian Influenza Organisms,

 

80

Chart 6-5

 

Technology Assessment: Development and Distribution of Organisms as Decoys,

 

81

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

Acronyms


ASIC

application-specific integrated circuit


BOLD

blood-oxygen-level dependent


C4ISR

command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance

C&C

computing and communications

CMOS

complementary metal-oxide semiconductor

COTS

commercial off-the-shelf


DARPA

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DIA

Defense Intelligence Agency

DNA

deoxyribonucleic acid

DOD

Department of Defense


ECM

electronic countermeasures

EEG

electroencephalography

EMP

electromagnetic pulse

EMU

extravehicular mobility unit

EPROM

electron paramagnetic resonance oxygen mapping

ERP

event-related potential


FCS

Future Combat Systems

FLIR

forward-looking infrared

fMRI

functional magnetic resonance imaging


GDP

gross domestic product

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2005. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11286.
×

GOTS

government off-the-shelf

GPS

Global Positioning System


IC

intelligence community

IFF

identification friend or foe

IP

Internet Protocol

IR

infrared

ISR

intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance


LED

light emitting diode


MANPADS

man-portable air defense system

MAV

micro air vehicle

MD-5

message-digest algorithm

MEG

magnetoencephalography

MEMS

microelectromechanical systems

MRI

magnetic resonance imaging


NIC

National Intelligence Council

NIRS

near-infrared spectroscopic imaging

NRC

National Research Council

NSF

National Science Foundation


OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development


R&D

research and development

RCS

radar cross section

RF

radio frequency

RFID

radio-frequency identification

RPG

rocket-propelled grenade


S&T

science and technology

SAR

synthetic aperture radar

SHA

secure hash algorithm

SQUID

superconducting quantum interference device


TWI

The Welding Institute, Ltd.


UAV

unmanned aerial vehicle

UCAV

unmanned combat air vehicle

UV

ultraviolet


VTOL

vertical takeoff and landing


WMD

weapons of mass destruction

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The global spread of science and technology expertise and the growing commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military application are creating potentially serious threats to the technological superiority underpinning U.S. military strength. Key to dealing with this situation is the ability of the U.S. intelligence community to be able to provide adequate and effective warning of evolving, critical technologies. To assist in performing this task, the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study examining technology warning issues. This report provides the first part of that study. It presents an assessment of critical, evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt these technologies; and provides indicators for the intelligence community to determine if such methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship with the technology warning community to support the examination of technology warning issues.

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