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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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America’s Energy Future

TECHNOLOGY AND TRANSFORMATION

Committee on America’s Energy Future

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by the Department of Energy under Grant Number DEFG02-07-ER-15923 and by BP America, Dow Chemical Company Foundation, Fred Kavli and the Kavli Foundation, GE Energy, General Motors Corporation, Intel Corporation, and the W.M. Keck Foundation. Support was also provided by the Presidents’ Circle Communications Initiative of the National Academies and by the National Academy of Sciences through the following endowed funds created to perpetually support the work of the National Research Council: Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, Arthur L. Day Fund, W.K. Kellogg Foundation Fund, George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability Science, and Frank Press Fund for Dissemination and Outreach. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations that provided support for the project.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

America’s energy future : technology and transformation / Committee on America’s Energy Future, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council of the National Academies.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-309-11602-2 (pbk.) — ISBN 978-0-309-11603-9 (PDF)

1. Power resources—United States. 2. Energy policy—United States. 3. Energy conservation. I. National Academy of Engineering. Committee on America’s Energy Future.

TJ163.25.U6A464 2009

333.790973—dc22

2009029730

Copies of this report are available from the

National Academies Press,

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Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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COMMITTEE ON AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE

HAROLD T. SHAPIRO (Chair),

Princeton University

MARK S. WRIGHTON (Vice Chair),

Washington University in St. Louis

JOHN F. AHEARNE,

Sigma Xi and Duke University

ALLEN J. BARD,

University of Texas at Austin

JAN BEYEA,

Consulting in the Public Interest

WILLIAM F. BRINKMAN,

Princeton University

DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN,

MPR Associates

STEVEN CHU,

1 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

CHRISTINE A. EHLIG-ECONOMIDES,

Texas A&M University

ROBERT W. FRI,

Resources for the Future

CHARLES H. GOODMAN,

Southern Company (retired)

JOHN B. HEYWOOD,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

LESTER B. LAVE,

Carnegie Mellon University

JAMES J. MARKOWSKY,

American Electric Power Service Corp. (retired)

RICHARD A. MESERVE,

Carnegie Institution for Science

WARREN F. MILLER, JR.,

Texas A&M University

FRANKLIN M. (“LYNN”) ORR, JR.,

Stanford University

LAWRENCE T. PAPAY,

PQR LLC

ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS,

Synthetic Genomics, Inc.

MICHAEL P. RAMAGE,

ExxonMobil (retired)

MAXINE L. SAVITZ,

Honeywell, Inc. (retired)

ROBERT H. SOCOLOW,

Princeton University

JAMES L. SWEENEY,

Stanford University

G. DAVID TILMAN,

University of Minnesota, St. Paul

C. MICHAEL WALTON,

University of Texas at Austin

Consultants

PETER BIERMAYER,

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

SAM BORGESON,

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

ANJAN BOSE,

Washington State University

RICH BROWN,

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

STEVE DUNN,

Southwest Energy Efficiency Project

1

Resigned from the committee on January 21, 2009.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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ADRIAN A. FAY,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

SAMUEL FLEMING,

Claremont Canyon Consultants

MARK FRANKEL,

New Buildings Institute

JIM HARDING, Independent Consultant,

Olympia, Washington

JASON HILL,

University of Minnesota, St. Paul

NARAIN HINGORANI, Independent Consultant,

Los Altos Hills, California

MAURICIO JUSTINIANO,

Energetics, Inc.

JON KOOMEY,

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

SHELDON KRAMER, Independent Consultant,

Grayslake, Illinois

THOMAS KREUTZ,

Princeton University

ERIC LARSON,

Princeton University

NANCY MARGOLIS,

Energetics, Inc.

ALAN MEIER,

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

MIKE MESSENGER,

Itron, Inc.

STEVE SELKOWITZ,

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

CHRISTOPHER WEBER,

Carnegie Mellon University

ROBERT WILLIAMS,

Princeton University

America’s Energy Future Project Director

PETER D. BLAIR, Executive Director,

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

America’s Energy Future Project Manager

JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director,

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)

Project Staff

KEVIN D. CROWLEY (Study Director), Director,

Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board (NRSB)

DANA G. CAINES, Financial Manager,

BEES

SARAH C. CASE, Program Officer,

NRSB

ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Program Officer,

BEES

GREG EYRING, Senior Program Officer,

Air Force Studies Board

K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer,

BEES

LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator,

BEES

STEVEN MARCUS, Editorial Consultant

THOMAS R. MENZIES, Senior Program Officer,

Transportation Research Board

EVONNE P.Y. TANG, Senior Program Officer,

Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources

MADELINE G. WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer,

BEES

E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant,

BEES

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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Foreword

Energy, which has always played a critical role in our country’s national security, economic prosperity, and environmental quality, has over the last two years been pushed to the forefront of national attention as a result of several factors:

  • World demand for energy has increased steadily, especially in developing nations. China, for example, saw an extended period (prior to the current worldwide economic recession) of double-digit annual increases in economic growth and energy consumption.

  • About 56 percent of the U.S. demand for oil is now met by depending on imports supplied by foreign sources, up from 40 percent in 1990.

  • The long-term reliability of traditional sources of energy, especially oil, remains uncertain in the face of political instability and limitations on resources.

  • Concerns are mounting about global climate change—a result, in large measure, of the fossil-fuel combustion that currently provides most of the world’s energy.

  • The volatility of energy prices has been unprecedented, climbing in mid-2008 to record levels and then dropping precipitously—in only a matter of months—in late 2008.

  • Today, investments in the energy infrastructure and its needed technologies are modest, many alternative energy sources are receiving insufficient attention, and the nation’s energy supply and distribution systems are increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters and acts of terrorism.

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All of these factors are affected to a great degree by the policies of government, both here and abroad, but even with the most enlightened policies the overall energy enterprise, like a massive ship, will be slow to change course. Its complex mix of scientific, technical, economic, social, and political elements means that the necessary transformational change in how we generate, supply, distribute, and use energy will be an immense undertaking, requiring decades to complete.

To stimulate and inform a constructive national dialogue about our energy future, the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering initiated a major study in 2007, “America’s Energy Future: Technology Opportunities, Risks, and Tradeoffs.” The America’s Energy Future (AEF) project was initiated in anticipation of major legislative interest in energy policy in the U.S. Congress and, as the effort proceeded, it was endorsed by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Jeff Bingaman and former Ranking Member Pete Domenici.

The AEF project evaluates current contributions and the likely future impacts, including estimated costs, of existing and new energy technologies. It was planned to serve as a foundation for subsequent policy studies, at the Academies and elsewhere, that will focus on energy research and development priorities, strategic energy technology development, and policy analysis.

The AEF project has produced a series of five reports, including this one, designed to inform key decisions as the nation begins a comprehensive examination of energy policy issues this year. Numerous studies conducted by diverse organizations have benefited the project, but many of those studies disagree about the potential of specific technologies, particularly those involving alternative sources of energy such as biomass, renewable resources for generation of electric power, advanced processes for generation from coal, and nuclear power. A key objective of the AEF series of reports is thus to help resolve conflicting analyses and to facilitate the charting of a new direction in the nation’s energy enterprise.

The AEF project, outlined in Appendix C, included a study committee and three panels that together have produced an extensive analysis of energy technology options for consideration in an ongoing national dialogue. A milestone in the project was the March 2008 “National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future” at which principals of related recent studies provided input to the AEF study committee and helped to inform the panels’ deliberations. A report chronicling the event, The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future:

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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Summary of a Meeting (Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press), was published in October 2008.

The AEF project was generously supported by the W.M. Keck Foundation, Fred Kavli and the Kavli Foundation, Intel Corporation, Dow Chemical Company Foundation, General Motors Corporation, GE Energy, BP America, the U.S. Department of Energy, and our own Academies.


Ralph J. Cicerone, President

National Academy of Sciences

Chair, National Research Council

Charles M. Vest, President

National Academy of Engineering

Vice Chair, National Research Council

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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Preface

The security and sustainability of our nation’s energy system have been perennial concerns since World War II. Indeed, all postwar U.S. presidents have focused some attention on energy-supply issues, especially our growing dependence on imported petroleum and the environmental impacts of fossil-fuel combustion—the latter including the direct effects of pollutant emissions on human health and, more recently, the impacts of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), on global warming.

The United States has made a great deal of progress in reducing traditional gaseous and particulate emissions (e.g., SOx, NOx) through regulatory controls and the technology improvements that have followed. But greenhouse gas emissions are only beginning to be addressed in any meaningful way. The United States also needs to lower its dependence on fragile supply chains for some energy sources, particularly petroleum at present and possibly natural gas in the future, and to avoid the impacts of this dependence on our nation’s economy and national security.

As a result of these and other factors (described in Chapter 1), such as the nation’s increasingly vulnerable transmission and distribution systems, there has been a steadily growing consensus1 that our nation must fundamentally transform the ways in which it produces, distributes, and consumes useful energy. Given the size and complexity of the U.S. energy system and its reach into all aspects of

1

See, for example: Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future, published by the InterAcademy Council in 2007 (www.interacademycouncil.net/?id=12161); Ending the Energy Stalemate, published by the National Commission on Energy Policy in 2007 (www.energycommission.org/ht/d/sp/i/492/pid/492); and Facing the Hard Truths About Energy, published by the National Petroleum Council in 2007 (www.npchardtruthsreport.org).

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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American life, this transformation will be an enormous undertaking; it will require fundamental changes, structural as well as behavioral, among producers and consumers alike. This report lays out the technical opportunities, the uncertainties, and some of the costs and benefits of initiating this transformation in earnest.

Given the massive installed base of long-lived energy production and distribution assets, together with a certain inertia—caused by uncertainties with respect to new technologies and regulations and by the generally slow pace of change in existing industrial practices, public policies, and consumer habits—the challenge that the nation faces not only is great but also will not be met overnight. As a result, a meaningful and timely transformation to a more sustainable and secure energy system will likely entail a generation or more of sustained efforts by both the public and the private sectors.

“Business as usual” approaches for obtaining and using energy will be inadequate for achieving the needed transformation. The efforts required will involve not only substantial new investments by the public and private sectors in research, development, demonstration, and deployment—in virtually all aspects of the energy infrastructure—but also new public policies and regulations on energy production, distribution, and use. Our energy system is, after all, much more than a set of technological arrangements; it is also a deep manifestation of society’s economic, social, and political arrangements.

The America’s Energy Future (AEF) Committee began this study at a moment of rapidly rising prices both in crude oil and in other raw materials that underpin the infrastructure that produces and delivers useful energy. As the study progressed, these prices reached a peak, began to fall steeply in the face of a global recession, and then began to rise again. Because it is virtually impossible to forecast future prices, this report makes no attempt to do so. Nevertheless, it is clear to the committee that market incentives for businesses and individuals to both invest in and deploy new energy technologies will depend most crucially, though not solely, on such prices. The technologies to be deployed must have adequate maturity, market appeal, and capability to meet the desired demands, and their development must be supported by appropriate public policies and regulations governing energy production, distribution, and use.2

2

Any substantial change in the demand for key inputs, whether of primary energy stocks or of the resources required to transport and transform them, will strain the existing infrastructure and limit the pace of change.

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The committee carefully considered existing and emerging technologies alike, some of which are now fairly well understood in principle though not necessarily deployable at scale or competitive in the marketplace, and it assessed how the deployment of such technologies might enable the nation to achieve meaningful transformation of the energy system over the next few decades. The committee did not, however, consider the opportunities available through conservation efforts or other opportunities through changes in policy or other socioeconomic initiatives. One of the committee’s conclusions is that there is no technological “silver bullet” at present that could transform the U.S. energy system through a substantial new source of clean and reasonably priced domestic energy. Instead, the transformation will require a balanced portfolio of existing (though perhaps modified) technologies, multiple new energy technologies, and new energy-efficiency and energy-use patterns. This will in turn require a sustained national will and commitment of resources to develop and deploy these assets where needed.

Throughout this study the committee also paid close attention to the practical problems of developing and deploying new technologies, even assuming that there is the requisite national commitment to do so. An example is the integration of sizable new supplies of electricity from intermittent sources (e.g., wind and solar power) into the nation’s electrical transmission and distribution systems. These systems need to be upgraded and continuously improved to enhance their reliability and security, to meet the needs of 21st-century electricity production technologies, and to provide for patterns of use that are more efficient.

Although this report focuses on the U.S. energy system, decision makers will need to take a wider view. It is clear that the country’s economic, national security, and environmental goals, especially with respect to energy, cannot be fully achieved without collective international action.3 Our nation’s prosperity depends on global prosperity, our national security is tied to international security, and the achievement of our environmental goals depends on environmental protection actions taken elsewhere. In short, full realization of goals of the United States for transforming its energy sector requires that we find effective mechanisms for working with other nations, many of which face similar challenges. Maintaining an awareness of international developments and cooperating with other countries on research and development, pilot projects, and commercial demonstrations will be key to our own success.

3

Such collective action among nations is not easy to achieve, as it requires broad participation, consequential monitoring, and meaningful compliance by all.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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It is beyond the scope of this committee’s charge to opine on the priority, relative to other national issues, of initiating and sustaining a national effort to transform our energy sector. However, I personally believe that despite the uncertainties before us, it is a truly urgent matter to begin such a transformation and, moreover, that the technology and knowledge for doing so are at hand. Indeed, the urgency for action to meet the nation’s needs in the economic, environmental, and national security arenas as they relate to energy production and use are unique in our history, and delayed action could dramatically increase the challenges we face. But a timely transformation of the energy system is unlikely to happen without finally adopting a strategic energy policy to guide developments over the next decades. Long-term problems require long-term solutions, and only significant, deliberate, stable, integrated, consistent, and sustained actions will move us to a more secure and sustainable energy system.

I also believe that we should not allow short-term fluctuations, either in the prices of energy supplies or in geopolitical affairs, to distract us from this critical long-term effort. Creating a more sustainable and secure energy system will require leadership, courage, risk-taking, and ample support, both public and private, but in my view such investments will generate a significant stream of long-term dividends.

Harold T. Shapiro, Chair

Committee on America’s Energy Future

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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Acknowledgments

This study could not have been done so well and on such a rapid schedule without the inspired contributions of a large number of individuals and organizations. First and foremost, I thank the committee members and staff for their dedication and hard work. These individuals brought a remarkably diverse array of disciplines, skills, and viewpoints to the study. As a result, our deliberations were intellectually stimulating—sometimes vigorous, but always respectful—as we worked together to develop this consensus report.

The committee initially organized itself into seven subgroups to facilitate information-gathering and, ultimately, the development of Chapters 49, which appear in Part 2 of this report:

  • Alternative liquid transportation fuels (chaired and staffed, respectively, by Mike Ramage and Evonne Tang)

  • Crosscutting and integration issues (Jim Sweeney and Madeline Woodruff)

  • Electricity transmission and distribution (Jim Markowsky; Alan Crane and Sarah Case)

  • Energy efficiency (Lester Lave; Madeline Woodruff, Greg Eyring, and Tom Menzies)

  • Fossil-fuel energy (Lynn Orr and Greg Eyring)

  • Nuclear energy (Dick Meserve and Sarah Case)

  • Renewable energy (Larry Papay and K. John Holmes, assisted by Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellows Amy Hee Kim, Dorothy Miller, and Stephanie Wolahan).

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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I thank these chairs for their able leadership, and I thank the subgroup members, staff, and fellows for their good work. I also express my gratitude to study director Kevin Crowley, who worked tirelessly to keep the entire study moving forward and to help the committee develop and articulate its key findings, which appear in Part 1 of this report.

The subgroups held separate meetings to obtain presentations and to gather the information that now appears in the Part 2 chapters. On behalf of the entire committee, I thank the outside experts who participated in these meetings. They are too numerous to list in this short section but are identified in Appendix B.

I also gratefully acknowledge the consultants who assisted the committee and its three sister panels (see Appendix C) with some of the analyses that were used in this report:

  • Anup Bandivadekar, International Council on Clean Transportation

  • Peter Biermayer, Sam Borgeson, Rich Brown, Jon Koomey, Alan Meier, and Steve Selkowitz, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

  • Anjan Bose, Washington State University

  • Steve Dunn, Southwest Energy Efficiency Project

  • Adrian A. Fay, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  • Samuel Fleming, Claremont Canyon Consultants

  • Mark Frankel, New Buildings Institute

  • Jim Harding, Independent Consultant

  • Jason Hill, University of Minnesota, St. Paul

  • Narain Hingorani, Independent Consultant

  • Mauricio Justiniano and Nancy Margolis, Energetics, Inc.

  • Sheldon Kramer, Independent Consultant

  • Thomas Kreutz, Eric Larson, and Robert Williams, Princeton University

  • Mike Messenger, Itron, Inc.

  • Christopher Weber, Carnegie Mellon University.

Finally, I thank the many other National Academies staff who helped to make this study a success. Peter Blair and Jim Zucchetto, comanagers of the America’s Energy Future Project, provided critical advice and guidance to the committee throughout the project. Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow Lawrence Lin and senior program associate Matt Bowen helped with the initial assembly of the massive literature that the committee used, and Matt Bowen also assisted with report review. Anderson Commonweal Intern Stephanie

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Oparaugo assisted with research and administrative tasks for the nuclear energy chapter. LaNita Jones and Jonathan Yanger provided critical logistical support of the committee’s work. Consultant Steve Marcus edited the report. Stephen Mautner supervised the report’s publication by the National Academies Press, Estelle Miller provided design and layout, and Susan Maurizi and Livingston Sheats took responsibility for production editing. All figures in the report were rendered by Danial James Studios of Golden, Colorado.

It has been a great pleasure to work with such a talented and committed group of people. We learned a great deal from our presenters, consultants, and each other during the course of this study. It is my hope that our collective efforts have produced a report that will inform decision making and help engender wise policies and actions among our nation’s political and business leaders.

Harold T. Shapiro

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Acknowledgement of Reviewer

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

Rakesh Agrawal, Purdue University

Philip W. Anderson, Princeton University

R. Stephen Berry, University of Chicago

Thomas Cochran, Natural Resources Defense Council

Michael Corradini, University of Wisconsin, Madison

Paul DeCotis, State of New York, Office of the Governor

David Hawkins, Natural Resources Defense Council

Robert Hirsch, Consultant

Dale Jorgenson, Harvard University

Ernest Moniz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Dan Reicher, Google.org

Edward Rubin, Carnegie Mellon University

Christopher Somerville, University of California, Berkeley

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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James Thorp, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Carl J. Weinberg, Consultant

John P. Weyant, Stanford University

John Wise, ExxonMobil (retired)

John Wootten, Peabody Energy

Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Robert A. Frosch, Harvard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and National Research Council. 2009. America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12091.
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Energy touches our lives in countless ways and its costs are felt when we fill up at the gas pump, pay our home heating bills, and keep businesses both large and small running. There are long-term costs as well: to the environment, as natural resources are depleted and pollution contributes to global climate change, and to national security and independence, as many of the world's current energy sources are increasingly concentrated in geopolitically unstable regions. The country's challenge is to develop an energy portfolio that addresses these concerns while still providing sufficient, affordable energy reserves for the nation.

The United States has enormous resources to put behind solutions to this energy challenge; the dilemma is to identify which solutions are the right ones. Before deciding which energy technologies to develop, and on what timeline, we need to understand them better.

America's Energy Future analyzes the potential of a wide range of technologies for generation, distribution, and conservation of energy. This book considers technologies to increase energy efficiency, coal-fired power generation, nuclear power, renewable energy, oil and natural gas, and alternative transportation fuels. It offers a detailed assessment of the associated impacts and projected costs of implementing each technology and categorizes them into three time frames for implementation.

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