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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (2010)

Chapter:Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
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Appendix A
Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

Gilman Louie, Chair, is a partner of Alsop Louie Partners, a venture capital company. Mr. Louie is a former president and CEO of In-Q-Tel, the venture capital group helping to deliver new technologies to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the intelligence community. Before helping found In-Q-Tel, Mr. Louie served as Hasbro Interactive’s chief creative officer and as general manager of the Games.com group, where he was responsible for creating and implementing the business plan for Hasbro’s Internet games site. Before joining Hasbro, he served as chief executive of the Nexa Corporation; Sphere, Inc.; and Spectrum HoloByte, Inc. As a pioneer in the interactive entertainment industry, Mr. Louie’s successes include the Falcon, F-16 flight simulator, and Tetris, which he brought over from the Soviet Union. He has served on the boards of directors of Wizards of the Coast; the Total Entertainment Network; Direct Language; Ribbit; and FASA Interactive. He currently serves as a member of the technical advisory group of the Senate Select Committee for Intelligence and was an active member of the Markle Foundation Task Force on National Security and the Information Age.


Prithwish Basu is a senior scientist in the Network Research Group at BBN Technologies in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He is the principal investigator at BBN on multiple networking programs funded by U.S. Army Research Laboratory, namely, Collaborative Technology Alliance and the U.S./U.K. International Technology Alliance. He is also the chief architect at BBN on DARPA’s Disruption-Tolerant Networking program. In 2006 he was named to MIT Technology Review’s list of Top Innovators Under 35 (TR35). His current research interests include theoretical as well as practical aspects of disruption-tolerant networking; energy-efficient medium access control, routing, and synchronization in wireless ad hoc and sensor networks; and robot networking. Recently he has also been interested in network science and is also exploring the use of biological metaphors for developing new networking algorithms. He received a B.Tech. in computer science and engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi and M.S. (1999) and Ph.D. (2003) degrees in computer engineering from Boston University. Dr. Basu has co-authored over 30 conference and journal articles and two invited book chapters and has two patents pending. He is a senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, the Association for Computing Machinery, and Sigma Xi and has served on the technical program committees and organizing committees of several leading networking conferences such as IEEE INFOCOM.


Harry Blount is currently founder and CEO of Gold Vision Ventures. Mr. Blount is chairman of the Futures Committee for the Tech Museum of Innovation and is chairman of the Advisory Committee for Alpha Theory (www.alphatheory.com),

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×

a portfolio management software company. He served on the board of directors of Lefthand Networks until the time of its purchase by Hewlett-Packard in November 2008. Mr. Blount spent 21 years on Wall Street, most recently with Lehman Brothers, where he was a leading analyst in multiple consumer and enterprise technology disciplines, including the Internet, wireless networks, PCs, servers, storage, hard drives, telecommunications, IT distribution, environmental services, and convertible securities. His weekly publication, In Blount Terms, was widely read by technology investors and executives. Prior to leaving Lehman Brothers in November 2007, Mr. Blount worked at a variety of firms, including Credit Suisse First Boston; Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette; and CIBC Oppenheimer. Mr. Blount was named an All-American in Information Technology Hardware and Internet Infrastructure Services by Institutional Investor magazine. He was also recognized as a Wall Street Journal All-Star for Computer Hardware. From 2002 to 2006, while at Lehman Brothers, Mr. Blount served as an outside advisor to Nokia Innovent, a Nokia Ventures Organization company. Innovent evaluated emerging technologies for the digital home and data center. He has spoken at numerous events including Storage Visions, IDEMA (the Hard Disk Drive Industry Association), the Digital Home Developers Conference, and the Global Technology Distribution Council conference, and at internal management events at some of the world’s leading technology companies. He appeared frequently on CNBC and the Bloomberg Report and has been quoted in numerous publications, including the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, Forbes, Fortune, and Business Week. Mr. Blount is a chartered financial analyst. He earned a bachelor’s degree in finance from the University of Wisconsin at La Crosse in 1986.


Ruth David (NAE) is the president and chief executive officer of ANSER, an independent, not-for-profit, public service research institution that provides research and analytic support on national and transnational issues. In April 2004, ANSER was selected by the Department of Homeland Security to establish and operate a new federally funded research and development center, the Homeland Security Institute. From September 1995 to September 1998, Dr. David was deputy director for science and technology at the CIA. As technical advisor to the Director of Central Intelligence, she was responsible for research, development, and deployment of technologies in support of all phases of the intelligence process. She represented the CIA on numerous national committees and advisory bodies, including the National Science and Technology Council and the Committee on National Security. Previously, Dr. David served in several leadership positions at the Sandia National Laboratories, where she began her professional career in 1975. Most recently, she was director of advanced information technologies. From 1991 to 1994, Dr. David was director of the Development Testing Center that developed and operated a broad spectrum of full-scale engineering test facilities. Dr. David has also been an adjunct professor at the University of New Mexico. She has technical experience in digital and microprocessor-based system design, digital signal analysis, adaptive signal analysis, and system integration. Dr. David is a member of the Department of Homeland Security Advisory Council, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE), and the Corporation for the Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. She is chair of the National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review and vice chair of the HSAC Senior Advisory Committee of Academia and Policy Research. Dr. David received a B.S. degree in electrical engineering from Wichita State University, and an M.S. and a Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from Stanford University.


Michele Gelfand is professor of organizational psychology at University of Maryland, College Park. Her research interests include cross-cultural social/organizational psychology; cultural influences on conflict, negotiation, justice, revenge, and leadership; discrimination and sexual harassment; and theory and method in assessing aspects of culture (individualism-collectivism; cultural tightness-looseness). She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in 1996 and has been published in many top journals, including The Academy of Management Review, The Academy of Management Journal, The Journal of Applied Psychology, The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, and Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. She also recently published a chapter on cross-cultural organizational behavior in The Annual Review of Psychology with Miriam Erez and Zeynep Aycan.


Jennie S. Hwang (NAE) is CEO of H-Technologies and has had a wide-ranging career, encompassing international collaboration, corporate and entrepreneurial businesses, research management, technology transfer, and

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×

global leadership positions, as well as corporate and university governance. Her work is highlighted by numerous national and international awards and honors, as well as distinguished alumni awards. Dr. Hwang was inducted into Women in Technology International Hall of Fame and named an Industry Week R&D Star to Watch. In her 30-year career, she has built new businesses in corporate America, having held senior executive positions with Lockheed Martin Corp., SCM Corp., Sherwin Williams Co., and co-founded entrepreneurial businesses. She is internationally recognized as a pioneer and long-standing leader in the fast-moving infrastructure development of electronics miniaturization and environment-friendly manufacturing. She is also an invited distinguished adjunct professor at the engineering school of Case Western Reserve University and has served on the University’s board of trustees since 1996. Dr. Hwang is the holder of several patents and author of more than 300 publications; she is the sole author of several internationally used textbooks published by McGraw-Hill and other European and Japanese publishers. She is a columnist for the globally circulated trade magazines Global Solar Technology and SMT, where she addresses technology issues and global market thrusts, respectively. Additionally, she is a prolific author and speaker on education, workforce, and social and business issues. Over the years, she has taught over 25,000 researchers and engineers in professional development courses, focusing on disseminating new technologies and providing the professional advancement education to the workforce. Additionally, Dr. Hwang has served as a board director for Fortune 500 NYSE and NASDAQ-traded private companies and various university and civic boards. She has also served on the International Advisory Board of the Singapore Advanced Technology and Manufacturing Institute, among other international organizations. Her formal education includes a Ph.D. in materials science and engineering, two M.S. degrees in chemistry and liquid crystal science, respectively, and a B.S. in chemistry. She attended the Harvard Business School Executive Program.


Anthony Hyder is associate vice president for graduate studies and research and professor of physics at the University of Notre Dame. Dr. Hyder’s research is in the interaction of spacecraft with the space environment. His recent work has focused on the design of spacecraft systems, especially the electrical power and thermal management subsystems, and on the operation of high-sensitivity infrared sensors aboard spacecraft. He has also worked in the physics of high-brightness particle accelerators. He has been appointed to a number of national and international panels and advisory boards, including the NATO sensors panel, the Defense Intelligence Agency scientific advisory board, the advisory board for the Missile Defense Agency, and the Army Science Board. Dr. Hyder is a graduate of Notre Dame with a B.S. in physics. He holds an M.S. in space physics and a Ph.D. in nuclear physics from the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT). He received the AFIT distinguished alumnus title in 2005.


Fred Lybrand is vice president, North America, for Elmarco, an equipment provider for the industrial-scale production of nanofibers, where he is responsible for new markets and sales and production strategy. He has transitioned between the finance and technology sectors several times. He raised and invested $2 billion into private equity and venture capital funds on behalf of state pension plans with Parish Capital, managed sales and business development with a private-equity-backed semiconductor manufacturer, and financed a number of midmarket and seed-stage transactions as part of Wachovia Securities. Mr. Lybrand holds an undergraduate degree in biology from the University of Virginia, an M.B.A. from the University of North Carolina, and the CFA and LIFA charters.


Peter Schwartz is cofounder and chairman of Global Business Network, a partner of the Monitor Group, which is a family of professional services firms devoted to enhancing client competitiveness. An internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, Mr. Schwartz specializes in scenario planning and works with corporations, governments, and institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. His current research and scenario work encompasses energy resources and the environment, technology, telecommunications, media and entertainment, aerospace, and national security. Mr. Schwartz is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, the Long Now Foundation, the World Affairs Council, and Human Rights Watch. He is the author of Inevitable Surprises, a provocative look at the dynamic forces at play in the world today and their implications for business and society. His first book, The Art of the Long View, is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning and has been translated into multiple languages. He is also a co-author of The Long Boom, When Good Compa-

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×

nies Do Bad Things, and China’s Futures. He publishes and lectures widely and served as a script consultant on the films “The Minority Report,” “Deep Impact,” “Sneakers,” and “War Games.” Mr. Schwartz received a B.S. in aeronautical engineering and astronautics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.


Nathan Siegel is a senior member of the technical staff at Sandia National Laboratories. He received a B.S. in mechanical engineering in 1998 from the California State and Polytechnic Institute at San Luis Obispo. He attended San Diego State University from 1998 until 2000, graduating with an M.S. in mechanical engineering. During this time he was employed at General Atomics in La Jolla and worked in the field of inertial confinement fusion energy, the subject of his master’s thesis. He attended Virginia Tech from 2000 until 2004, when he graduated with a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering. Dr. Siegel’s research at Virginia Tech focused on the development and validation of advanced computational models of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. He has been employed at Sandia National Laboratories since graduating from Virginia Tech. His research activities focus on solar interfaces for high-temperature hydrogen-producing thermochemical (TC) cycles and on the experimental validation of novel TC cycles. He has also recently been involved in PEM fuel cell research using neutron radiography to study two-phase flow within an operating fuel cell.


Alfonso Velosa III graduated from Columbia University with a B.S. in materials science engineering, from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with an M.S. in materials science engineering, and from Thunderbird, the Garvin School of International Management, with an M.I.M. in international management. Mr. Velosa is currently research director for semiconductors at Gartner. In this position, he focuses on semiconductor supply chain research, with a particular focus on global manufacturing and the semiconductor consumption trends of electronic equipment manufacturers. Mr. Velosa previously worked for or consulted to Intel, NASA Langley and NASA headquarters, Mars & Co., and IBM Research.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
Page114
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
Page115
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
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Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers.

The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.

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