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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (2010)

Chapter:Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
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Appendix B
Meetings and Speakers

MEETING 1


October 15-16, 2007

Keck Center of the National Academies

Washington, D.C.


X2 Program

Marina Gorbis, Institute for the Future

Mike Love, Institute for the Future

Matt Daniels, Institute for the Future


Globalization of Technology: Impact on Defense S&T Planning

Alan Shaffer, Plans and Programs Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering


Technology Forecasting

Steven D. Thompson, Defense Intelligence Agency


Delta (S&T) Scan: Uses in U.K. Government

Harry Woodroof, Horizon Scanning Centre, Government Office for Science, Dept. for Innovation, United Kingdom

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×

MEETING 2


February 26-27, 2008

Beckman Center of the National Academies

Irvine, California


Technology Forecasting and Long Term S&T Planning

Adam Nucci, Defense Research and Engineering


Adaptivity in a Disruptive World

Jeffery Hersh, Booz Allen Hamilton


Anticipating Future Disruptive Technologies

Jae Engelbrecht, Toffler Associates

Deb Westphal, Toffler Associates


International Forecasting

Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network


Search and Research: Bringing Science Onto the Web

Mark Kaganovich, Labmeeting, Inc.


Prediction Market Overview: Effectiveness in Forecasting Disruptive Technological Change

Russell Andersson, HedgeStreet Exchange


X2 Framework

Marina Gorbis, Institute for the Future

Mike Love, Institute for the Future

Matt Daniels, Institute for the Future


Processes and Strategies that Affect Commercialization Success

David Pratt, M-CAM, Inc.


The Global Technology Revolution 2020: Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

Philip Anton, RAND Corporation

Richard Silberglitt, RAND Corporation


X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science & Technology

Alex Pang, Institute for the Future

Matt Daniels, Institute for the Future

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×

MEETING 3


May 28-29, 2008

Keck Center of the National Academies

Washington, D.C.


Are Patents Useful for Predicting Important Technologies?

Paul Henderson, Clarify LLC


Disruptive Technologies Systems Approach

Gil Decker, Independent Consultant


Complex Digital Systems in the Knowledge Economy: Some Key Grand Challenges

Irving Wladawsky-Berger, IBM Academy of Technology


X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science & Technology

Alex Pang, Institute for the Future

Matt Daniels, Institute for the Future


Scalable Text Mining

V.S. Subrahmanian, University of Maryland


Macro Trends and Related Technologies of Disruption

Jeff Jonas, IBM Entity Analytics


Online Research/Technology Forecasting Systems: Highlights of the TechCast Project

William Halal, George Washington University

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
Page117
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
Page118
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
Page119
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2010. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12557.
×
Page120
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Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers.

The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.

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