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Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESSâ 500 Fifth Street, N.W.â Washington, DC 20001 This booklet is based on the report Severe Space Weather EventsâUnderstanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008). Material in the booklet was derived from and largely reproduces material from the original report, with additions limited to factual details intended to provide illustrative background information. Neither document offers advice that should be construed as conclusions or recom- mendations of the National Research Council or of the agency that provided support for the project. The project of which this booklet is a part was supported by Contract nnh06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop extends special thanks to member William S. Lewis, who prepared the text of the booklet, and to Estelle Miller of the National Acad- emies Press, who did the design and layout. Cover: (Upper left) A looping eruptive prominence blasted out from a powerful active region on July 29, 2005, and within an hour had broken away from the Sun. Active regions are areas of strong magnetic forces. Image courtesy of SOHO, a project of international cooperation between the European Space Agency and NASA. International Standard Book Number 13:â 978-0-309-13811-6 International Standard Book Number 10:â 0-309-13811-6 Copies of this booklet are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this booklet are available for purchase from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org
Committee on the societal and economic impacts OF SEVERE SPACE WEATHER EVENTS: A WORKSHOP DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado at Boulder, Chair ROBERTA BALSTAD, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University J. MICHAEL BODEAU, Northrop Grumman Space Technology EUGENE CAMERON, United Airlines, Inc. JOSEPH F. FENNELL, Aerospace Corporation GENENE M. FISHER, American Meteorological Society KEVIN F. FORBES, Catholic University of America PAUL M. KINTNER, Cornell University LOUIS G. LEFFLER, North American Electric Reliability Council (retired) WILLIAM S. LEWIS, Southwest Research Institute JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Inc. (retired) ARTHUR A. SMALL III, Pennsylvania State University THOMAS A. STANSELL, Stansell Consulting LEONARD STRACHAN, JR., Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory Staff SANDRA J. GRAHAM, Study Director THERESA M. FISHER, Program Associate VICTORIA SWISHER, Research Associate CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor
SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), Vice Chair DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado at Boulder STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation ALAN DRESSLER, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution JACK D. FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, Naval War College KLAUS KEIL, University of Hawaii MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future BERRIEN MOORE III, Climate Central ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine JOAN VERNIKOS, Thirdage LLC JOSEPH F. VEVERKA, Cornell University WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research CHARLES E. WOODWARD, University of Minnesota ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL, University of Wisconsin Richard ROWBERG, Interim Director vi
Contents The Societal Context 3 The Impact of Space Weather 4 Industry-Specific Space Weather Impacts, 4 Electric Power Industry, 4 Spacecraft Operations, 5 Airline Operations, 6 Space-Based Positioning, Navigation, and Timing, 8 Future Vulnerabilities: The Specter of Extreme Space Weather Past, 9 Collateral Impacts of Severe Space Weather, 11 Space Weather Infrastructure 17 Space Weather Forecasting: Capabilities and Limitations, 19 Space Weather Models, 19 Understanding the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather 22 References 23 vii