National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES— PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract DE-AT01-06EE11206, TO#18, Subtask 3, between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

COMMITTEE ON ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCE NEEDS FOR FUEL CELL AND HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGIES

MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE,1 Chair,

ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey

RAKESH AGRAWAL,

NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

DAVID L. BODDE,

Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina

DAVID FRIEDMAN,

Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C.

SUSAN FUHS,

Conundrum Consulting, Hermosa Beach, California

JUDI GREENWALD,

Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT L. HIRSCH,

Management Information Services, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia

JAMES R. KATZER,

NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington, D.C.

GENE NEMANICH,

ChevronTexaco Technology Ventures (retired), Scottsdale, Arizona

JOAN OGDEN,

University of California, Davis, Davis, California

LAWRENCE T. PAPAY,

NAE, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), La Jolla, California

IAN W.H. PARRY,

Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

WILLIAM F. POWERS,

NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Boca Raton, Florida

EDWARD S. RUBIN,

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

ROBERT W. SHAW, JR.

Aretê Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire

ARNOLD F. STANCELL,2

NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Greenwich, Connecticut

TONY WU,

Southern Company, Wilsonville, Alabama

Consultant

JAMES CANADA

Project Staff

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

ALAN CRANE, Study Director

JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director,

BEES

JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant

NAE Program Office

PENELOPE GIBBS, Senior Program Associate

1

NAE, National Academy of Engineering.

2

Resigned from the committee June 2009.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, Chair,

NAE,1 MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia

ROBERT W. FRI,2 Vice Chair,

Resources for the Future (senior fellow emeritus), Washington, D.C.

RAKESH AGRAWAL,

NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER,

The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan

ALLEN J. BARD,2

NAS,3 University of Texas, Austin

ANDREW BROWN, JR.,

NAE, Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan

MARILYN BROWN,

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

MICHAEL L. CORRADINI,

NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison

PAUL DeCOTIS,

Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York

E. LINN DRAPER, JR.,

NAE, American Electric Power, Inc. (emeritus), Austin, Texas

CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES,

NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station

WILLIAM FRIEND,

NAE, Bechtel Group Inc. (retired), McLean, Virginia

CHARLES H. GOODMAN,2

Southern Company (retired), Birmingham, Alabama

SHERRI GOODMAN,

CNA, Alexandria, Virginia

NARAIN G. HINGORANI,

NAE,

Consultant,

Los Altos Hills, California

MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,

Princeton University, New Jersey

WILLIAM F. POWERS,2

NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan

MICHAEL P. RAMAGE,

NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey

DAN REICHER,

Google.org, San Francisco, California

BERNARD ROBERTSON,

NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan

MAXINE SAVITZ,

NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California

MARK H. THIEMENS,

NAS, University of California, San Diego, California

SCOTT W. TINKER,2

University of Texas, Austin, Texas

RICHARD WHITE,

Oppenheimer & Company, New York City

Staff

JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director

DUNCAN BROWN, Senior Program Officer

DANA CAINES, Financial Associate

ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer

JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer

LaNITA JONES, Program Associate

JASON ORTEGA, Senior Project Assistant (until December 2009)

MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer

JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant

1

NAE, National Academy of Engineering.

2

Term ended September 30, 2009.

3

NAS, National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

Preface

The Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies completed its report Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—A Focus on Hydrogen (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.) in 2008. Subsequently, the U.S. Department of Energy requested the National Research Council (NRC) to expand that analysis to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The committee reconvened to examine the issues associated with PHEVs and wrote this report in response to that additional task.

The nation has only a few options for making great reductions in its dependence on oil and emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, from the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are one, and electric vehicles are another. Both have great potential but also serious disadvantages and uncertainties. In particular, costs for both are currently very high, and both have limited range.

In comparison, PHEVs have some attractive characteristics. Unlike hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, they can be deployed in the marketplace without simultaneously building an infrastructure to supply the energy to operate them, and unlike all-electric battery vehicles, drivers will not have to worry about charging the batteries on a long trip. However, PHEVs have their own limitations, as discussed in this report.

It is unusual for the NRC to reconvene a committee organized for one purpose to investigate another, but this is an unusual committee in another way, too. I have never worked with a committee that was so dedicated, knowledgeable, and talented. This entire additional task has taken about 6 months, an extraordinarily fast pace for a complex issue. The committee members have my deepest appreciation. The project also was very fortunate in having as its study director Alan Crane, who contributed immeasurably with his experience and expertise and his ability to keep the whole process moving on schedule.

The committee operated under the auspices of the NRC Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and is grateful for the able assistance of James Zucchetto and Jonathan Yanger of the NRC staff, and Penelope Gibbs of the National Academy of Engineering Program Office staff.


Michael P. Ramage

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

Acknowledgments

The Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies is grateful to the many individuals who contributed their time and efforts to this National Research Council (NRC) study. The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insights that enhanced the committee’s understanding of the technologies and barriers involved. The committee thanks the following individuals and companies for their briefings and information:

Shinichi Abe, Toyota Motor Corporation,

Dick Cromie, Southern California Edison,

Bob Graham, Southern California Edison,

Dave Howell, U.S. Department of Energy,

Tien Nguyen, U.S. Department of Energy,

Phil Patterson, U.S. Department of Energy,

Bill Reinert, Toyota Motor Sales, USA, Inc.,

Sandy Thomas, H2Gen,

Mark Verbrugge, General Motors,

David Vieau, A123 Systems,

Michael Wang, Argonne National Laboratory,

Jake Ward, U.S. Department of Energy,

Compact Power, Inc.

Delphi Corporation,

DENSO International America, Inc., and

Ford Motor Corporation.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Paul Blumberg, Consultant,

Andrew Brown, Delphi Corporation,

Doug Chapin, MPR Associates,

John German, International Council for Clean Transportation,

Charles Goodman, Consultant,

Paul Gray, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Daniel Greenbaum, Health Effects Institute,

Trevor Jones, ElectroSonics Medical, Incorporated,

Maryann Keller, Maryann Keller and Associates, and

Brijesh Vyas, LGS Innovations, Limited Licensing Corporation.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

Tables, Figures, and Boxes

TABLES

S.1

 

Estimated Future PHEV Incremental Costs,

 

2

S.2

 

PHEV Transition Times and Costs,

 

4

2.1

 

Characteristics of Li-Ion Batteries Involving Different Chemistries,

 

9

2.2

 

Estimates of Li-Ion Battery Performance Parameters for a PHEV-40,

 

12

2.3

 

Estimated Battery Performance Properties for a PHEV-10,

 

12

2.4

 

Projected Incremental Cost of Components for PHEV-40 for Production in 2010 Using Current Technology Compared with an Equivalent Current Nonhybrid Vehicle,

 

14

2.5

 

Projected Incremental Cost of Components for PHEV-10 for Production in 2010 Using Current Technology Compared with an Equivalent Current Nonhybrid Vehicle,

 

14

2.6

 

Percent Projected Cost Reductions for Different Components with Increased Production and Learning by Doing,

 

15

2.7

 

Estimated PHEV Incremental Costs,

 

15

3.1

 

Approximate Charging Time as a Function of Vehicle Size and Electric Driving Range,

 

20

4.1

 

Energy Requirements of Midsized Vehicles,

 

26

4.2

 

Estimated Retail Prices of PHEVs Incremental to Retail Price of Reference Case Gasoline Car,

 

26

4.3

 

PHEV Transition Times and Costs,

 

28

4.4

 

Comparison of Transition Costs for PHEV and HFCV Cases,

 

29

C.1

 

Ratio of Energy Use in PHEVs Compared to Energy Use in Gasoline HEVs,

 

47

C.2

 

Input Variables for Sensitivity Study,

 

50

C.3

 

Range of Inputs Normalized to Base Value,

 

50

FIGURES

S.1

 

Projections of number of PHEVs in the U.S. light-duty fleet,

 

3

S.2

 

Gasoline use for PHEV-10s and PHEV-40s introduced at the Maximum Practical rate and the Efficiency Case from the 2008 Hydrogen Report,

 

3

S.3

 

GHG emissions for cases combining high-efficiency conventional vehicles and HEVs with mixed PHEV or HFCV vehicles for the two different grid mixes,

 

3

S.4

 

Gasoline consumption for scenarios that combine conventional vehicle efficiency, PHEVs, biofuels, and HFCVs,

 

4

2.1

 

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle concepts,

 

8

2.2

 

Differences in state of charge (SOC) requirements for PHEV batteries and HEV batteries,

 

10

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

3.1

 

Net generation of U.S. electric power industry, 2007,

 

18

3.2

 

Electric generation by fuel in four cases, 2007 and 2030,

 

19

4.1

 

Number of light-duty vehicles in the fleet for the Reference Case,

 

22

4.2

 

On-road fuel economy of vehicles for the Reference Case,

 

22

4.3

 

Types and numbers of light-duty vehicles for the Efficiency Case,

 

22

4.4

 

Fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles for the Efficiency Case,

 

22

4.5

 

Biofuel supply for the Biofuels-Intensive Case,

 

22

4.6

 

Penetration of PHEVs in the U.S. light-duty fleet,

 

23

4.7

 

Number of vehicles for the Portfolio Cases, a mix of PHEVs and efficient ICEVs and HEVs, introduced at the Maximum Practical rate,

 

25

4.8

 

Retail prices for PHEVs for probable and optimistic rates of technology progress, compared to the Reference Case vehicle (conventional ICEV),

 

27

4.9

 

Price of gasoline over time and at electricity price of 8 cents per kilowatt-hour,

 

27

4.10

 

Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Maximum Practical Case, Optimistic technical assumptions,

 

28

4.11

 

Gasoline consumption for PHEV-10s or PHEV-40s introduced at Maximum Practical and Probable penetration rates,

 

29

4.12

 

Gasoline use for the Reference Case and the Efficiency Case and when PHEVs are included in an already highly efficient fleet,

 

29

4.13

 

Gasoline use for scenarios that combine efficiency, biofuels, and either PHEVs or HFCVs,

 

30

4.14

 

GHG emissions from the future electric grid,

 

30

4.15

 

GHG emissions for PHEVs at the market penetrations shown in Figure 4.6 for the grid mix estimated by EIA,

 

30

4.16

 

GHG emissions for PHEVs at the market penetrations shown in Figure 4.6 for the grid mix estimated by EPRI/NRDC,

 

30

4.17

 

GHG emissions for cases combining ICEV Efficiency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles at the Maximum Practical penetration rate with the EPRI/NRDC grid mix,

 

31

4.18

 

GHG emissions for cases combining ICEV Efficiency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles at the Maximum Practical penetration rate with the EIA grid mix,

 

31

4.19

 

GHG emissions for cases combining the ICEV Efficiency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles for the EPRI/NRDC grid mix,

 

31

4.20

 

GHG emissions for scenarios combining ICEV Efficiency Case, Biofuels Case, and PHEVs or HFCVs, for the EIA grid mix,

 

31

4.21

 

GHG emissions for scenarios combining ICEV Efficiency Case, Biofuels Case, and PHEVs or HFCVs for the EPRI/ NRDC grid mix,

 

32

C.1

 

Number of vehicles in the Hydrogen Report Reference Case,

 

45

C.2

 

Fuel economy for vehicles in the Hydrogen Report Reference Case,

 

45

C.3

 

Number of vehicles in the ICEV Efficiency Case (Hydrogen Report Case 2),

 

45

C.4

 

Fuel economy for the ICEV Efficiency Case (Hydrogen Report Case 2),

 

45

C.5

 

Biofuel supply for the Biofuels-Intensive Case (Hydrogen Report Case 3),

 

45

C.6

 

Numbers of light-duty vehicles for portfolio approach, where PHEVs are combined with efficient ICEVs and HEVs,

 

45

C.7

 

PHEV operating modes,

 

46

C.8

 

National VMT fraction available for substitution by a PHEV using 100 percent electric charge-depleting mode,

 

47

C.9

 

Tank-to-wheels energy use in advanced vehicles, assuming 44 percent blending during charge-depleting operation,

 

47

C.10

 

Energy consumption in a PHEV-30 as electricity and gasoline for different blending strategies in CD mode,

 

47

C.11

 

Estimated on-road, fleet-average gasoline consumption for ICEVs, HEVs, and PHEVs in this study,

 

48

C.12

 

Estimated fleet-average electricity use over drive cycle for PHEVs in this study,

 

48

C.13

 

Cash flow analysis for PHEV-40, Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions,

 

48

C.14

 

Cash flow analysis for PHEV-40, Probable case, Probable technical assumptions,

 

48

C.15

 

Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions,

 

49

C.16

 

Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Probable case, Probable technical assumptions,

 

49

C.17

 

Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions,

 

49

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
×

C.18

 

Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Probable Case, Probable technical assumptions,

 

49

C.19

 

PHEV-10: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables,

 

50

C.20

 

PHEV-40: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables,

 

50

C.21

 

PHEV-10: Sensitivity of buydown cost to changes in input variables,

 

50

C.22

 

PHEV-40: Sensitivity of buydown cost to changes in input variables,

 

51

C.23

 

GHG emissions from the future electric grid,

 

51

C.24

 

Hydrogen GHG emissions per megajoule of energy,

 

51

F.1

 

Historical cost reduction experience for NiMH battery packs and for Li-ion battery packs,

 

56

BOXES

2.1

 

Department of Energy Targets for Battery Performance,

 

13

4.1

 

Manufacturers’ Announced Plans for Electric Vehicles (Partial List),

 

23

4.2

 

Factors Affecting Deployment and Impact,

 

24

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12826.
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The nation has compelling reasons to reduce its consumption of oil and emissions of carbon dioxide. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) promise to contribute to both goals by allowing some miles to be driven on electricity drawn from the grid, with an internal combustion engine that kicks in when the batteries are discharged. However, while battery technology has made great strides in recent years, batteries are still very expensive.

Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles builds on a 2008 National Research Council report on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The present volume reviews the current and projected technology status of PHEVs; considers the factors that will affect how rapidly PHEVs could enter the marketplace, including the interface with the electric transmission and distribution system; determines a maximum practical penetration rate for PHEVs consistent with the time frame and factors considered in the 2008 Hydrogen report; and incorporates PHEVs into the models used in the hydrogen study to estimate the costs and impacts on petroleum consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.

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