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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12878.
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Assessment of Interseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12878.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number DG133R-08-CQ-0062, TO# 2. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its sub agencies.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15183-2

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15183-X

Additional copies of this report are available from the

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Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12878.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12878.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12878.
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COMMITTEE ON ASSESSMENT OF INTRASEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY

ROBERT A. WELLER (Chair),

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts

JEFFREY L. ANDERSON,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado

ALBERTO ARRIBAS,

Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom

ROBERT E. DICKINSON,

University of Texas, Austin

LISA GODDARD,

Columbia University, New York, New York

EUGENIA KALNAY,

University of Maryland, College Park

BENJAMIN KIRTMAN,

University of Miami, Florida

RANDAL D. KOSTER,

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland

MICHAEL B. RICHMAN,

University of Oklahoma, Norman

R. SARAVANAN,

Texas A&M University, College Station

DUANE WALISER,

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena

BIN WANG,

University of Hawaii, Honolulu

NRC Staff:

MARTHA MCCONNELL, Study Director

JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow

LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate

SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant

DAVID REIDMILLER, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Fellow

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12878.
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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair),

University of Maryland, College Park

ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

RICHARD CARBONE,

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

WALTER F. DABBERDT,

Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado

KIRSTIN DOW,

University of South Carolina, Columbia

GREG S. FORBES,

The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia

ISAAC HELD,

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey

ARTHUR LEE,

Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California

RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT,

University of Chicago, Illinois

KIMBERLY PRATHER,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

KIRK R. SMITH,

University of California, Berkeley

JOHN T. SNOW,

University of Oklahoma, Norman

THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR,

Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins

XUBIN ZENG,

University of Arizona, Tucson

Ex Officio Members

GERALD A. MEEHL (Chair, Climate Research Committee),

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

NRC Staff

CHRIS ELFRING, Director

EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

IAN KRAUCUNAS, Senior Program Officer

MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer

MAGGIE WALSER, Associate Program Officer

TOBY WARDEN, Associate Program Officer

KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer

JOSEPH CASOLA, Postdoctoral Fellow

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

LAUREN A. BROWN, Research Associate

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant

RICARDO PAYNE, Program Assistant

JANEISE STURDIVANT, Program Assistant

SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12878.
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Acknowledgements

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:

Brian Hoskins, Imperial College London, UK

Richard Kleeman, New York University

Robert A. Knox, University of California, San Diego

Arthur Lee, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, CA 94583

Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

Robert E. Livezey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (retired), Silver Spring, MD

Andrew M. Moore, University of California, Santa Cruz

Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, College Park

Tim Palmer, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

Matthew C. Wheeler, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Roger B. Lukas (University of Hawaii). Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

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