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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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avoiding technology surprise for tomorrow’s warfighter—symposium 2010

Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This is a report of work supported by contract HHM402-05-D-0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15568-7

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15568-1

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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COMMITTEE FOR THE SYMPOSIUM ON AVOIDING TECHNOLOGY SURPRISE FOR TOMORROW’S WARFIGHTER—2010

J. JEROME HOLTON, Chair,

Tauri Group, Alexandria, Virginia

RUTH A. DAVID, Vice Chair,

Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER), Arlington, Virginia

BRIAN BALLARD,

Berico Tailored Systems, Columbia, Maryland

ALAN H. EPSTEIN,

Pratt & Whitney, East Hartford, Connecticut

JOHN GANNON,

BAE Systems, Reston, Virginia

CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN,

Wayne State University

DIANE E. GRIFFIN,

Johns Hopkins University

KENNETH A. KRESS,

KBK Consulting, Inc., Arlington, Virginia

GILMAN G. LOUIE,

Alsop Louie Partners, San Francisco

JULIE J.C.H. RYAN,

George Washington University

Staff

MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director

DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director

CARTER FORD, Program Officer

SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate

MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator

SHANNON C. THOMAS, Program Associate

CHRIS JONES, Financial Manager

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Preface

The symposium described in this report was the second annual gathering of this type, representing a new venue for the ongoing engagement between the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review (TIGER) Standing Committee, the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community, and the consumers of S&TI products.1 TIGER’s sponsor, the Defense Warning Office (DWO) of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), intends that the personal interactions that occurred throughout the symposium, this report, and similar products of future sessions will help to systemically strengthen U.S. S&TI capabilities.

The chair and vice chair express their appreciation to the members of the Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010 for their earnest contributions to the generation of this report. We are also grateful for the active participation of many members of the technology community as well as to the sponsor for its support. Likewise, we recognize the substantial contribution made by the staff of the Lockheed Martin Center for Innovation in supporting the conduct of this symposium at the facility in Suffolk, Virginia. The committee would also like to express sincere appreciation for the support and assistance of the NRC staff, including Daniel Talmage, Carter Ford,

1

The preceding symposium is described in National Research Council, 2009, Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report, Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12735.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Greg Eyring, Sarah Capote, Marguerite Schneider, Chris Jones, and Shannon Thomas.


J. Jerome Holton, Chair

Ruth A. David, Vice Chair

Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

James J. Carafano, The Heritage Foundation,

Lawrence J. Delaney, Titan Corporation (retired),

Stephen W. Drew (NAE), Drew Solutions LLC,

Allison A. Hickey (USAF, retired), Accenture National Security Services,

Larry G. Lehowicz (USA, retired), Quantum Research International, and

Gregory S. Martin (USAF, retired), GS Martin Consulting.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert J. Hermann (NAE). Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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Acronyms and Abbreviations

COCOM combatant command

COD currency of development

DIA Defense Intelligence Agency

DoD Department of Defense

DWO Defense Warning Office

EMP electromagnetic pulse

FOIA Freedom of Information Act

IC intelligence community

JFCOM United States Joint Forces Command

NRC National Research Council

ORD Office of Research and Development

RCAs riot control agents

R&D research and development

S&T science and technology

S&TI scientific and technical intelligence

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: Symposium 2010. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12919.
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TFP total factor productivity

TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review

TQM total quality management

USJFCOM United States Joint Forces Command

WoW World of Warcraft

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The Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter is a forum for consumers and producers of scientific and technical intelligence to exchange perspectives on the potential sources of emerging or disruptive technologies and behaviors, with the goal of improving the Department of Defense's technological warning capability. This volume summarizes the key themes identified in the second and most recent symposium, a two-day event held in Suffolk, Virginia, on April 28 and 29, 2010. The symposium combined presentations highlighting cutting-edge technology topics with facilitated discourse among all participants. Three categories of surprise were identified: breakthroughs in product and process technology, new uses of existing technology, and the unexpectedly rapid progression of a technology to operational use. The incorporation of an adversary's own culture, history, beliefs, and value systems into analyses also emerged in discussions as an important factor in reducing surprise.

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