New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract NNX08AN97G between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Contract AST-0743899 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation, and Contract DE-FG02-08ER41542 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Support for this study was also provided by the Vesto Slipher Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project.
Cover: Complexity abounds in the universe, especially during the birth phases of stars and planetary systems. The M17 region, also known as the Omega Nebula, in the constellation Sagittarius is rich in massive stars, including those recently formed and already impacting their environment (bright nebulous regions—e.g., back lower), as well as those still in the process of formation within cold dense clouds (dark regions—e.g., front center). Provinces such as this within our galaxy and others allow astronomers to understand and quantify the cycling of matter and energy within the cosmic ecosystem. The image depicts mid-infrared emission at 3.6- to 24-micrometer wavelengths as detected by NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope, although the region has been studied from high-frequency gamma-ray to low-frequency radio energies. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech.
Dedication (p. xxxiii): Photo courtesy of American Astronomical Society.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
National Research Council (U.S.). Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics.
New worlds, new horizons in astronomy and astrophysics / Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Space Studies Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-309-15802-2 (case bdg.) — ISBN 978-0-309-15799-5 (pbk.) — ISBN 978-0-309-15800-8 (pdf)
1. Astronomy—Research—Forecasting. 2. Astrophysics—Research—Forecasting. 3. Research—International cooperation. I. Title.
QB61.N385 2011
520.72—dc22
2010044515
This report is available in limited quantities from the Board on Physics and Astronomy, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001; bpa@nas.edu, http://www.nationalacademies.edu/bpa.
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
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Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
ROGER D. BLANDFORD,
Stanford University,
Chair
MARTHA P. HAYNES,
Cornell University,
Vice Chair
JOHN P. HUCHRA,
Harvard University,
Vice Chair
MARCIA J. RIEKE,
University of Arizona,
Vice Chair
LYNNE HILLENBRAND,
California Institute of Technology,
Executive Officer
STEVEN J. BATTEL,
Battel Engineering
LARS BILDSTEN,
University of California, Santa Barbara
JOHN E. CARLSTROM,
University of Chicago
DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN,
Vassar College
JOSHUA FRIEMAN,
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
FIONA A. HARRISON,
California Institute of Technology
TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN,
Johns Hopkins University
ROBERT C. KENNICUTT, JR.,
University of Cambridge
JONATHAN I. LUNINE,
University of Arizona and University of Rome, Tor Vergata
CLAIRE E. MAX,
University of California, Santa Cruz
DAN McCAMMON,
University of Wisconsin
STEVEN M. RITZ,
University of California, Santa Cruz
JURI TOOMRE,
University of Colorado
SCOTT D. TREMAINE,
Institute for Advanced Study
MICHAEL S. TURNER,
University of Chicago
NEIL deGRASSE TYSON,
Hayden Planetarium, American Museum of Natural History
PAUL A. VANDEN BOUT,
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
A. THOMAS YOUNG,
Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired)
Staff
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director,
Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA)
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director,
Space Studies Board (SSB)
BRANT L. SPONBERG, Senior Program Officer,
BPA (until December 2009)
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer,
BPA
BRIAN D. DEWHURST, Program Officer,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (until July 2009)
JAMES C. LANCASTER, Program Officer,
BPA
DAVID B. LANG, Program Officer,
BPA
TERI THOROWGOOD, Administrative Coordinator,
BPA (from November 2009)
CARMELA CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator,
SSB
CATHERINE GRUBER, Editor,
SSB
CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Research Associate,
BPA
LaVITA COATES-FOGLE, Senior Program Assistant,
BPA (until October 2009)
BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate,
BPA
SCIENCE FRONTIERS PANELS
Panel on Cosmology and Fundamental Physics
DAVID N. SPERGEL,
Princeton University,
Chair
DAVID WEINBERG,
Ohio State University,
Vice Chair
RACHEL BEAN,
Cornell University
NEIL CORNISH,
Montana State University
JONATHAN FENG,
University of California, Irvine
ALEX V. FILIPPENKO,
University of California, Berkeley
WICK C. HAXTON,
University of California, Berkeley
MARC P. KAMIONKOWSKI,
California Institute of Technology
LISA RANDALL,
Harvard University
EUN-SUK SEO,
University of Maryland
DAVID TYTLER,
University of California, San Diego
CLIFFORD M. WILL,
Washington University
Panel on the Galactic Neighborhood
MICHAEL J. SHULL,
University of Colorado,
Chair
JULIANNE DALCANTON,
University of Washington,
Vice Chair
LEO BLITZ,
University of California, Berkeley
BRUCE T. DRAINE,
Princeton University
ROBERT FESEN,
Dartmouth University
KARL GEBHARDT,
University of Texas
JUNA KOLLMEIER,
Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington
CRYSTAL MARTIN,
University of California, Santa Barbara
JASON TUMLINSON,
Space Telescope Science Institute
DANIEL WANG,
University of Massachusetts
DENNIS ZARITSKY,
University of Arizona
STEPHEN E. ZEPF,
Michigan State University
Panel on Galaxies Across Cosmic Time
C. MEGAN URRY,
Yale University,
Chair
MITCHELL C. BEGELMAN,
University of Colorado,
Vice Chair
ANDREW J. BAKER,
Rutgers University
NETA A. BAHCALL,
Princeton University
ROMEEL DAVÉ,
University of Arizona
TIZIANA DI MATTEO,
Carnegie Mellon University
HENRIC S. W. KRAWCZYNSKI,
Washington University
JOSEPH MOHR,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
RICHARD F. MUSHOTZKY,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
CHRIS S. REYNOLDS,
University of Maryland
ALICE SHAPLEY,
University of California, Los Angeles
TOMMASO TREU,
University of California, Santa Barbara
JAQUELINE H. VAN GORKOM,
Columbia University
ERIC M. WILCOTS,
University of Wisconsin
Panel on Planetary Systems and Star Formation
LEE W. HARTMANN,
University of Michigan,
Chair
DAN M. WATSON,
University of Rochester,
Vice Chair
HECTOR ARCE,
Yale University
CLAIRE CHANDLER,
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
DAVID CHARBONNEAU,
Harvard University
EUGENE CHIANG,
University of California, Berkeley
SUZAN EDWARDS,
Smith College
ERIC HERBST,
Ohio State University
DAVID C. JEWITT,
University of California, Los Angeles
JAMES P. LLOYD,
Cornell University
EVE C. OSTRIKER,
University of Maryland
DAVID J. STEVENSON,
California Institute of Technology
JONATHAN C. TAN,
University of Florida
Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolution
ROGER A. CHEVALIER,
University of Virginia,
Chair
ROBERT P. KIRSHNER,
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,
Vice Chair
DEEPTO CHAKRABARTY,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SUZANNE HAWLEY,
University of Washington
JEFFREY R. KUHN,
University of Hawaii
STANLEY OWOCKI,
University of Delaware
MARC PINSONNEAULT,
Ohio State University
ELIOT QUATAERT,
University of California, Berkeley
SCOTT RANSOM,
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
HENDRIK SCHATZ,
Michigan State University
LEE ANNE WILLSON,
Iowa State University
STANFORD E. WOOSLEY,
University of California, Santa Cruz
Staff
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director,
Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA)
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director,
Space Studies Board (SSB)
BRANT L. SPONBERG, Senior Program Officer,
BPA (until December 2009)
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer,
BPA
DAVID B. LANG, Program Officer,
BPA
CARMELA CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator,
SSB
CATHERINE GRUBER, Editor
CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Research Associate,
BPA
LaVITA COATES-FOGLE, Senior Program Assistant,
BPA (until October 2009)
BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate,
BPA
PROGRAM PRIORITIZATION PANELS
Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space
ALAN DRESSLER,
Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington,
Chair
MICHAEL BAY,
Bay Engineering Innovations
ALAN P. BOSS,
Carnegie Institution of Washington
MARK DEVLIN,
University of Pennsylvania
MEGAN DONAHUE,
Michigan State University
BRENNA FLAUGHER,
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
TOM GREENE,
NASA Ames Research Center
PURAGRA (RAJA) GUHATHAKURTA,
University of California Observatories/Lick Observatory
MICHAEL G. HAUSER,
Space Telescope Science Institute
HAROLD MCALISTER,
Georgia State University
PETER F. MICHELSON,
Stanford University
BEN R. OPPENHEIMER,
American Museum of Natural History
FRITS PAERELS,
Columbia University
ADAM G. RIESS,
Johns Hopkins University
GEORGE H. RIEKE,
Steward Observatory, University of Arizona
PAUL L. SCHECHTER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
TODD TRIPP,
University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Panel on Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground
PATRICK S. OSMER,
Ohio State University,
Chair
MICHAEL SKRUTSKIE,
University of Virginia,
Vice Chair
CHARLES BAILYN,
Yale University
BETSY BARTON,
University of California, Irvine
TODD A. BOROSON,
National Optical Astronomy Observatory
DANIEL EISENSTEIN,
University of Arizona
ANDREA M. GHEZ,
University of California, Los Angeles
J. TODD HOEKSEMA,
Stanford University
ROBERT P. KIRSHNER,
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
BRUCE MACINTOSH,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
PIERO MADAU,
University of California, Santa Cruz
JOHN MONNIER,
University of Michigan
IAIN NEILL REID,
Space Telescope Science Institute
CHARLES E. WOODWARD,
University of Minnesota
Panel on Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation
JACQUELINE N. HEWITT,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Chair
ERIC G. ADELBERGER,
University of Washington
ANDREAS ALBRECHT,
University of California, Davis
ELENA APRILE,
Columbia University
JONATHAN ARONS,
University of California, Berkeley
BARRY C. BARISH,
California Institute of Technology
JOAN CENTRELLA,
NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center
DOUGLAS FINKBEINER,
Harvard University
KATHY FLANAGAN,
Space Telescope Science Institute
GABRIELA GONZALEZ,
Louisiana State University
JAMES B. HARTLE,
University of California, Santa Barbara
STEVEN M. KAHN,
Stanford University
N. JEREMY KASDIN,
Princeton University
TERESA MONTARULI,
University of Wisconsin–Madison
ANGELA V. OLINTO,
University of Chicago
RENE A. ONG,
University of California, Los Angeles
HELEN R. QUINN,
SLAC National Laboratory (retired)
Panel on Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Astronomy from the Ground
NEAL J. EVANS,
University of Texas,
Chair
JAMES M. MORAN,
Harvard University,
Vice Chair
CRYSTAL BROGAN,
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
AARON S. EVANS,
University of Virginia
SARAH GIBSON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory
JASON GLENN,
University of Colorado at Boulder
NICKOLAY Y. GNEDIN,
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
CORNELIA C. LANG,
University of Iowa
MAURA MCLAUGHLIN,
West Virginia University
MIGUEL MORALES,
University of Washington
LYMAN A. PAGE JR.,
Princeton University
JEAN L. TURNER,
University of California, Los Angeles
DAVID J. WILNER,
Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory
Staff
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director,
Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA)
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director,
Space Studies Board (SSB)
BRANT L. SPONBERG, Senior Program Officer,
BPA (until December 2009)
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer,
BPA
BRIAN D. DEWHURST, Program Officer,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (until July 2009)
JAMES C. LANCASTER, Program Officer,
BPA
CARMELA CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator,
SSB
CATHERINE GRUBER, Editor
CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Research Associate,
BPA
LaVITA COATES-FOGLE, Senior Program Assistant,
BPA (until October 2009)
BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate,
BPA
BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
ADAM S. BURROWS,
Princeton University,
Chair
PHILIP H. BUCKSBAUM,
Stanford University,
Vice Chair
RICCARDO BETTI,
University of Rochester
PATRICK L. COLESTOCK,
Los Alamos National Laboratory (until June 30, 2010)
JAMES DRAKE,
University of Maryland
JAMES EISENSTEIN,
California Institute of Technology
DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN,
Vassar College
PAUL FLEURY,
Yale University
ANDREA M. GHEZ,
University of California, Los Angeles (until June 30, 2010)
PETER F. GREEN,
University of Michigan
LAURA H. GREENE,
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
MARTHA P. HAYNES,
Cornell University
JOSEPH HEZIR,
EOP Group, Inc.
MARC A. KASTNER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Chair until June 30, 2010)
MARK B. KETCHEN,
IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
JOSEPH LYKKEN,
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
PIERRE MEYSTRE,
University of Arizona
HOMER A. NEAL,
University of Michigan
MONICA OLVERA de la CRUZ,
Northwestern University
JOSE N. ONUCHIC,
University of California, San Diego
LISA RANDALL,
Harvard University
CHARLES V. SHANK,
Janelia Farm, Howard Hughes Medical Institute (until June 30, 2010)
MICHAEL S. TURNER,
University of Chicago
MICHAEL C.F. WIESCHER,
University of Notre Dame
Staff
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Associate Director (until March 30, 2010)
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
CHARLES F. KENNEL,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego,
Chair
A. THOMAS YOUNG,
Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired),
Vice Chair
DANIEL N. BAKER,
University of Colorado, Boulder (until June 30, 2010)
STEVEN J. BATTEL,
Battel Engineering,
CHARLES L. BENNETT,
Johns Hopkins University (until June 30, 2010)
YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant
ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN,
Dixie State College/Aerospace Corporation
ALAN DRESSLER,
The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution
JACK D. FELLOWS,
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
HEIDI B. HAMMEL,
Space Science Institute
FIONA A. HARRISON,
California Institute of Technology
ANTHONY C. JANETOS,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE,
Naval War College
KLAUS KEIL,
University of Hawaii (until June 30, 2010)
MOLLY K. MACAULEY,
Resources for the Future
BERRIEN MOORE III,
Climate Central (until June 30, 2010)
JOHN F. MUSTARD,
Brown University
ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
JAMES PAWELCZYK,
Pennsylvania State University
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,
University of California, Irvine
DAVID N. SPERGEL,
Princeton University
JOAN VERNIKOS,
Thirdage LLC
JOSEPH F. VEVERKA,
Cornell University (until June 30, 2010)
WARREN M. WASHINGTON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
CHARLES E. WOODWARD,
University of Minnesota
THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN,
University of Michigan
ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL,
University of Wisconsin (until June 30, 2010)
Staff
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director (from April 2010)
RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Director (from March 2009 through March 2010)
MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (through February 2009)
BRANT L. SPONBERG, Associate Director (until December 2009)
Preface
The summary of the charge to the Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics reads:
This decadal survey of astronomy and astrophysics is charged to survey the field of space-and ground-based astronomy and astrophysics and to recommend priorities for the most important scientific and technical activities of the decade 2010-2020. The principal goals of the study are to carry out an assessment of activities in astronomy and astrophysics, including both new and previously identified concepts, and to prepare a concise report that will be addressed to the agencies supporting the field, the congressional committees with jurisdiction over those agencies, the scientific community, and the public.
The complete statement of task is given in Appendix E.
Essentially, the committee was asked to consider (1) the acquisition, analysis, and interpretation of observations of the cosmos, including technology development and new facilities needed, as well as the computational and theoretical framework for understanding the observations; (2) the extent of the common ground between fundamental physics and cosmology as well as other areas of interface with related scientific disciplines, as appropriate; and (3) the federal research programs that support work in the field of astronomy and astrophysics, including programs at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and selected aspects of the physics programs at the NSF and the Department of Energy (DOE). Only physics topics with a strong overlap with astronomy and astrophysics were within the study charge. In addition, only
ground- and not space-based solar astronomy was to be considered.1 Direct detection of dark matter was also excluded from prioritization. The survey was also charged to assess the infrastructure of the field, broadly defined, and to consider the importance of balance within and among the activities sponsored by the various agencies that support research in astronomy and astrophysics.
The committee was asked to formulate a decadal research strategy with recommendations for initiatives in priority order within different categories (related to the size of the activities and their home agencies). In addition to reviewing individual initiatives, aspects of infrastructure, and so on, the committee also was asked to make a judgment about how well the current program addresses the range of scientific opportunities and how it might be optimized—all the time guided by the principle that the priorities would be motivated by maximizing future scientific progress.
An important characteristic of contemporary astronomy, and therefore of this survey, is that most research is highly collaborative, involving international, interagency, private, and state partnerships. This feature has expanded the scope of what is possible but also makes assessment and prioritization more complicated. Another important characteristic is that astronomy remains a discovery-oriented science and that any strategy designed to optimize the science must leave room for the unexpected.
In contrast to previous surveys of the field, the prioritization process for this one included consideration of those unrealized projects that had been recommended in previous decadal surveys but had not had a formal start, alongside new research activities2 that have emerged more recently from the research community. The survey was asked to review the technical readiness of the projects being considered for prioritization, assess various sources of risk, and develop independent estimates of the cost and schedule risks of the activity with help from an independent contractor hired by the National Research Council (NRC), the Aerospace Corporation. There were also instructions to consider and make recommendations relating to the allocation of future budgets and to address choices that may be faced, given a range of budget scenarios—including establishing criteria on which the recommendations depend, and suggesting strategies for the agencies on how to rebalance programs within budgetary scenarios upon failure of one or more of the criteria.
STUDY PROCESS AND PARTICIPANTS
The committee began its work in the fall of 2008 with preparations for the first plenary meeting of the Astro2010 Survey Committee in December 2008. The first task was to define the work for the nine expert panels appointed in early 2009 by the NRC to assist the committee in the execution of its charge. The five Science Frontier Panels (SFPs) defined and articulated the themes for the science case that underpins the survey recommendations. The four Program Prioritization Panels (PPPs) conducted an in-depth study of the technical and programmatic issues related to the 100 or so research activities—in total more than 10 times the program that could be supported under any credible budget—that the community presented to the survey in the months that followed.
The nine appointed panels comprised 123 members drawn from across all of astronomy and astrophysics. In the first phase of the survey, the five SFPs worked to identify science themes that define the research frontiers for the 2010-2020 decade in five areas: Cosmology and Fundamental Physics, the Galactic Neighborhood, Galaxies Across Cosmic Time, Planetary Systems and Star Formation, and Stars and Stellar Evolution. Drawing on the 324 white papers on science opportunities submitted to the NRC in response to an open call from the committee to the astronomy and astrophysics research community,3 as well as on briefings received from federal agencies that provide support for the field, the SFPs strove to identify the scientific drivers of the field and the most promising opportunities for progress in research in the next decade, taking into consideration those areas where the technical means and the theoretical foundations are in place to enable major steps forward. The SFPs were instructed to avoid advocacy for prioritization of specific new missions, telescopes, and other research activities. They also worked ahead of and therefore independent of the PPPs. The input of the SFPs to the committee was organized around four science questions ripe for answering and general areas with unusual discovery potential. The SFPs, and especially their chairs, dealt with the considerable challenge of anticipating future scientific developments and making tough choices with careful deliberation and collegiality.
In the second phase of the survey, the PPPs were charged to develop a ranked program of research activities in four programmatic areas: Electromagnetic Observations from Space; Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground; Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation; and Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Astronomy from the Ground. In addition to the draft science questions and discovery areas received from the SFP chairs at a joint meeting held in May 2009, the PPPs also reviewed the more than 100 proposals for research activities presented
3 |
The set of white papers submitted is available at http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/BPA_050603. Accessed May 2010. |
by the astronomy and astrophysics community for consideration by the survey.4 In addition the PPPs received briefings from federal agencies, project proponents, and other stakeholders at public sessions held in June 2009 at the summer meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Pasadena, California. In their final assembly of priorities, the PPPs also took into account assessments of cost and schedule risk, and of the technical readiness of the research activities under consideration for prioritization. Each PPP proposed a program of prioritized, balanced, and integrated research activities, reflecting the results of its in-depth study of the technical and programmatic issues and of its consideration of the results of the independent technical evaluation and cost and schedule risk estimate. The committee received draft reports of the PPPs’ input on proposed programs at its fourth committee meeting in October 2009. All four PPPs and especially their chairs dealt with the daunting task of choosing, with objectivity and on the basis of their broad expertise, just a few of the many scientifically exciting and credible proposals in front of them. The reports of the five SFPs and the four PPPs are collected in a separate volume of this survey report.5
In addition to the nine panels, six Infrastructure Study Groups (ISGs) also provided input for the committee’s consideration. Consisting of 71 volunteer consultants drawn for the most part from the astronomy and astrophysics community, the ISGs gathered and analyzed data on “infrastructural” issues in six areas—Computation, Simulation, and Data Handling (including archiving of astronomical data); Demographics (encompassing astronomers and astrophysicists working in different environments and subfields); Facilities, Funding, and Programs (including infrastructure issues such as support for laboratory astrophysics and technology development and theory); International and Private Partnerships; Education and Public Outreach; and Astronomy and Public Policy (focusing on benefits to the nation that accrue from federal investment in astronomy and the potential contributions that professional astronomers make to research of societal importance, and mechanisms by which the astronomy community provides advice to the federal government)—to describe recent trends and past quantifiable impacts on research programs in astronomy and astrophysics. The ISGs provided preliminary factual material to the committee and the PPPs at the May 2009 meeting, and their final internal working papers were made available to the committee in the fall of 2009. The members of the six ISGs are listed in the section that follows this preface.
4 |
For more information see http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/BPA_049855. Accessed May 2010. |
5 |
National Research Council, Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2011. |
The five SFPs, four PPPs, and six ISGs were crucial components of the survey, not only for the content and critical analysis they supplied but also because of the connections they provided to the astronomy and astrophysics community. Moreover the panels and study groups completed a Herculean set of tasks in an extraordinarily short time. The results of their efforts were essential to the deliberations of the committee, the success of whose work depended critically on the sequential and orderly flow of information from the SFPs to the PPPs and then to the committee as provided for in the survey plan and structure. The committee acknowledges with heartfelt thanks the volunteers from the astronomy and astrophysics community who served on the panels and study groups. Their reports stand testament to the hard work done by the members, and especially their chairs, work whose full value will be recognized through the decade to come.
In addition, the survey as a whole benefited immensely from the broader participation of the astronomy and astrophysics community, which, over the course of the study, and in particular in the first half of 2009, undertook a massive effort to provide input to the survey process. Included were informal reports from 17 community town hall meetings, in addition to more than 450 white papers on topics including science opportunities, the state of the profession and infrastructure, and opportunities in technology development, theory, computation, and laboratory astrophysics. Critical to the success of the nine panels’ and six study groups’ work, these inputs were also an early product of the survey in that the white papers and various reports were made available on NRC Web pages.6 Far more important than the quantity, however, is the quality of the input. As public documents, many of these essays and proposals have already been widely cited in the professional literature. Although it will be many years before the significance of the survey can be assessed, the impact of the community input is already assured. On behalf of the committee and the panels, sincere thanks are extended to the volunteers from the research community who gave so much of their time to formulate this backbone of information and data as input for the Astro2010 survey process.
In addition to the 27 panel meetings conducted over the course of this survey, the survey committee itself met in person six times and held more than 100 teleconferences between December 2008 and May 2010. There were also detailed briefings from Jon Morse on behalf of NASA, Craig Foltz on behalf of NSF, and Dennis Kovar on behalf of DOE. All three agencies are thanked for their generous sponsorship of the survey and patient responses to requests for information that provided policy and budgetary context. In addition, the committee was pleased to receive critical perspectives from the U.S. Congress, the Office of Science and Tech-
6 |
The set of white papers submitted is available at http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/BPA_050603. Accessed May 2010. For more information see http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/BPA_049855. Accessed May 2010. |
nology Policy, and the Office of Management and Budget. Kevin Marvel and Kate Kirby, executive officers of the American Astronomical Society and the American Physical Society, respectively, offered their insights and arranged important interfaces to the community. Members of the committee met regularly with the Board on Physics and Astronomy and the Space Studies Board, whose members provided wise feedback and advice.
The committee undertook the hard and painful task, necessitated by the relatively severe financial constraints under which the agencies expect to have to operate, of consolidating the rich science opportunities and selecting from the many exciting and realizable activities presented to it. It established a set of criteria and, through a deliberative process, developed the program that is proposed in this report. The science objectives were first organized into three general themes enhanced by discovery areas. These themes were then focused into three science objectives for the decade, labeled “Cosmic Dawn,” “New Worlds,” and “Physics of the Universe.” The activities recommended to optimize addressing these objectives were organized into large, medium, and small activities in space and on the ground. The committee also took into account the organization of research programs in astronomy within the current federal agency structure.
ADDITIONAL ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AND COMMENTS
The complexity of this process could have been overwhelming but for the support of the NRC staff at the Board on Physics and Astronomy and the Space Studies Board: Carmela Chamberlain, LaVita Coates-Fogle, Brian Dewhurst, Beth Dolan, Catherine Gruber, Caryn Knutsen, James Lancaster, David Lang, Robert L. Riemer, Richard Rowberg, Brant Sponberg, and Teri Thorowgood. These dedicated supporters of the field undertook the formidable task of making all these meetings work, receiving and organizing all the input, and providing the logistical and tactical support that allowed the committee to remain on task, on schedule, and on budget over the course of close to 2 years. In addition the committee benefited from the inputs provided by three younger members of the community who served as NRC Mirzayan Policy Fellows over the course of the survey—Baruch Feldman, Michael McElwaine, and Leslie Chamberlain. Christine Aguilar provided logistical support from Stanford.
On behalf of the committee, I express my personal gratitude to all of the above. I also thank Ralph Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences, for his unfailing support and helpful guidance. Donald Shapero, director of the Board on Physics and Astronomy, likewise kept watch over the process and used his experience to keep it on track. Michael Moloney directed the survey from the start with remarkable efficiency, foresight, and tact and did not stint in his effort after he also took on the directorship of the Space Studies Board. Lastly, I acknowledge
every one of my 22 colleagues on the committee, who all worked extremely hard to learn about and then represent the whole field of astronomy and astrophysics. I am grateful for all that they have taught me and for their generous and good-natured support over the past 2 years. Among these must be singled out Martha Haynes, John Huchra, and Marcia Rieke, who acted so ably as vice chairs, and, especially, Lynne Hillenbrand, who served wisely, patiently, and tirelessly as executive officer. Each of these contributions was essential to the completion of the survey.
The committee has been faced with making difficult choices in what is widely agreed are sobering times. Our national finances are experiencing significant stress, and although at the time of this report’s release the support of the current administration and Congress for science is remarkable, this survey has had to act responsibly in considering the scope of the program it can envision. This happens in the context of reporting at a singular time in the history of astronomy, one of remarkable ongoing discovery and unlimited possibility. All who have served on or worked with the committee have been conscious of their personal good fortune to be living at this time and the wonderful scientific opportunity that today’s astronomers enjoy to seek new worlds and reach out to the new horizons of the universe. With the aid of the facilities operational today, those that are already started and will be completed during this decade, and those that are recommended to be started soon, this promises to be another extraordinary decade of discovery.
Roger D. Blandford, Chair
Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics
Acknowledgment of Members of the Astro2010 Infrastructure Study Groups
The Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics acknowledges with gratitude the contributions of the members of the six Astro2010 Infrastructure Study Groups, who gathered information on issues related to the broad topics listed below.
Computation, Simulation, and Data Handling: Robert Hanisch, Space Telescope Science Institute, Co-Chair; Lars Hernquist, Harvard University, Co-Chair; Thomas Abel, Stanford University; Keith Arnaud, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Tim Axelrod, LSST; Alyssa Goodman, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Kathryn Johnston, Columbia University; Andrey Kravtsov, University of Chicago; Kristen Larson, Western Washington University; Carol Lonsdale, National Radio Astronomy Observatory; Mordecai-Mark Mac Low, American Museum of Natural History; Michael Norman, University of California, San Diego; Richard Pogge, Ohio State University; and James Stone, Princeton University.
Demographics: James Ulvestad, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Chair; Jack Gallimore, Bucknell University; Evalyn Gates, University of Chicago; Rachel Ivie, American Institute of Physics; Christine Jones, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Patricia Knezek, WIYN Consortium, Inc.; Travis Metcalfe, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Naveen Reddy, National Optical Astronomy Observatory; Joan Schmelz, University of Memphis; and Louis-Gregory Strolger, Western Kentucky University.
Facilities, Funding, and Programs: J. Craig Wheeler, University of Texas at Austin, Chair; Rebecca A. Bernstein, University of California, Santa Cruz; David Burrows, Pennsylvania State University; Webster Cash, University of Colorado; R. Paul Drake, University of Michigan; Jeremy Goodman, Princeton University; W. Miller Goss, National Radio Astronomy Observatory; Kate Kirby, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Anthony Mezzacappa, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Robert Millis, Lowell Observatory; Catherine Pilachowski, Indiana University; Farid Salama, NASA Ames Research Center; and Ellen Zweibel, University of Wisconsin.
International and Private Partnership: Robert L. Dickman, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Chair; Michael Bolte, University of California, Santa Cruz; George Helou, California Institute of Technology; James Hesser, Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics; Wesley T. Huntress, Carnegie Institution of Washington; Richard Kelley, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Rolf-Peter Kudritzki, University of Hawai’i; Eugene H. Levy, Rice University; Antonella Nota, Space Telescope Science Institute; and Brad Peterson, Ohio State University.
Education and Public Outreach: Lucy Fortson, Adler Planetarium, Co-Chair; Chris Impey, University of Arizona, Co-Chair; Carol Christian, Space Telescope Science Institute; Lynn Cominsky, Sonoma State University; Mary Dussault, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Richard Tresch Feinberg, Phillips Academy; Andrew Fraknoi, Foothill College; Pamela Gay, Southern Illinois University; Jeffrey Kirsch, Reuben H. Fleet Science Center; Robert Mathieu, University of Wisconsin; George Nelson, Western Washington University; Edward Prather, University of Arizona; Philip Sadler, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Keivan Stassun, Vanderbilt University; and Sidney Woolf, LSST.
Astronomy and Public Policy: Daniel F. Lester, University of Texas at Austin, Chair; Jack Burns, University of Colorado; Bruce Carney, University of North Carolina; Heidi Hammel, Space Science Institute; Noel W. Hinners, Lockheed (retired); John Leibacher, National Solar Observatory; J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory; Melissa McGrath, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; and Annelia Sargent, California Institute of Technology.
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Jonathan Bagger, Johns Hopkins University,
James Barrowman, NASA (retired),
Edmund Bertschinger, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Raymond Carlberg, University of Toronto,
Henry Ferguson, Space Telescope Science Institute,
Michael E. Fisher, University of Maryland,
Reinhard Genzel, Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics,
Philip R. Goode, New Jersey Institute of Technology,
Joseph Hezir, EOP Group, Inc.,
Eugene H. Levy, Rice University,
Malcolm Longair, Cavendish Laboratory,
J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory,
Richard McCray, University of Colorado, Boulder,
Christopher McKee, University of California, Berkeley,
Saul Perlmutter, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
Catherine A. Pilachowski, Indiana University,
Anneila I. Sargent, California Institute of Technology,
Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and
Mark Wyatt, University of Cambridge.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology, and Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Astronomy is in a golden age with spectacular discoveries such as the first extrasolar planets, pinning down the age of the Universe, dark energy, galactic black holes, and galaxies formed only a few hundred million years after the Big Bang as just some of the drivers for new questions…. Whatever else happens, we are privileged to be a part of this enterprise.
—John Huchra (AAS Newsletter, Issue 152, May/June 2010)
The Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics dedicates this report to a dear friend and valued colleague, John P. Huchra, who served as a vice chair for the decadal survey.