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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
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INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations

Baruch Fischhoff and Cherie Chauvin, Editors

Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Grant No. 2008*1199327*000 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2011). Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
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COMMITTEE ON BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH TO IMPROVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY

Baruch Fischhoff (Chair),

Department of Social and Decision Sciences and Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University

Hal R. Arkes,

Department of Psychology, Ohio State University

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,

Department of Politics, New York University and Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Thomas Fingar,

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Reid Hastie,

Chicago Booth Business School, University of Chicago

Edward H. Kaplan,

School of Management, School of Public Health, and School of Engineering and Applied Science, Yale University

Steve W. J. Kozlowski,

Department of Psychology, Michigan State University

Gary H. McClelland,

Department of Psychology, University of Colorado

Kiron K. Skinner,

Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University and Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Barbara A. Spellman,

Department of Psychology and School of Law, University of Virginia

Philip E. Tetlock,

Department of Psychology and Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania

Catherine H. Tinsley,

McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University

Amy Zegart,

School of Public Affairs, University of California, Los Angeles and Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Cherie Chauvin, Study Director

Matthew McDonough, Senior Program Assistant (through April 2010)

Gary Fischer, Senior Program Assistant (from April 2010)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
×

BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES

Philip E. Rubin (Chair),

Haskins Laboratories and Yale University

Lisa Feldman Barrett,

Department of Psychology, Northeastern University

Linda M. Bartoshuk,

College of Dentistry, University of Florida

Richard J. Bonnie,

Institute of Law, Psychiatry and Public Policy, University of Virginia

John T. Cacioppo,

Department of Psychology, University of Chicago

Susan E. Carey,

Department of Psychology, Harvard University

Susan T. Fiske,

Department of Psychology, Princeton University

Nina G. Jablonski,

Department of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University

Patricia K. Kuhl,

Institute for Learning and Brain Sciences and Department of Speech and Hearing Sciences, University of Washington

Jonathan D. Moreno,

Departments of Medical Ethics and History and Sociology of Science, University of Pennsylvania

Richard E. Nisbett,

Department of Psychology, University of Michigan

Michael I. Posner,

Department of Psychology, University of Oregon (Emeritus)

Valerie F. Reyna,

Department of Human Development and Psychology, Cornell University

Richard M. Shiffrin,

Psychology Department, Indiana University

Brian A. Wandell,

Department of Psychology, Stanford University

Barbara A. Wanchisen, Director

Mary Ellen O’Connell, Deputy Director

Christie R. Jones, Program Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
×

Preface

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation’s security depends. Their individual and collective “brainpower” is the human capital of the IC. Their role is the pivotal middle point between gathering information and policy making. The IC’s success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities.

For a century or more, the behavioral and social sciences have studied how individuals and groups perform these fundamental intellectual processes. That research has found that people perform some of these tasks much better than others. In some cases, the research has demonstrated ways to overcome weaknesses (e.g., through training or structuring analytical processes); in other cases, the research has identified problems that reflect limits to analysis that are important for decision makers to understand as aspects of the uncertainties that they face.

Recognizing the potential value of this research, the Office of Analytic Integrity and Standards of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) requested the National Research Council (NRC), through its Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, to form a committee to synthesize and assess the behavioral and social science research evidence relevant to (1) critical problems of individual and group judgment

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
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and of communication by intelligence analysts and (2) the kinds of analytic processes that are employed or have potential in addressing these problems.

To this end, the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security has produced a consensus report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, summarizing its analysis and presenting its conclusions and recommendations, and this collection of individually authored papers, which presents the more detailed evidentiary base for the committee’s conclusions and recommendations.

The papers in this collection represent the individual work of committee members, with two (Chapters 7 and 11) involving collaborations with colleagues having related expertise. The papers summarize research relevant to recruiting, cultivating, deploying, and retaining human capital. The specific topics in this volume were selected by the committee as central to the IC’s mission.

The first chapter sets the context for the volume by describing the analytic process, in terms of its behavioral and social demands. The remaining chapters provide critical assessments of the science relevant to meeting those demands, organized into the three essential elements of successful analysis, analytic methods (Chapter 25), analysts (Chapter 69), and organizations (Chapter 1013).

The committee envisions this volume as a resource for the IC’s leadership and workforce, to help the IC to develop its own programs and be a critical consumer of services secured externally. The committee also envisions this volume being used by the broader audience of those who teach, study, and perform analysis. Even more broadly, the papers in this volume may benefit researchers and educators in other domains who face similarly complex, uncertain analytical problems, such as technological risk management, entrepreneurship, and international development.

In addition to specific acknowledgements made by the authors in their individual chapters, the NRC wishes to thank several individuals who assisted in preparing this collection of papers. Among the NRC staff, special thanks are due to Barbara Wanchisen and Mary Ellen O’Connell who provided oversight and support of the study. Two senior program assistants, Matthew McDonough and Gary Fischer, provided administrative and logistic support over the course of the study. We also thank an NRC consultant, Laura Penny, for her work in the final editing of the collection. Finally we thank the executive office reports staff of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, especially Eugenia Grohman, who provided valuable help with the editing and production of the report, and Kirsten Sampson Snyder, who managed the report review process.

Each paper has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
×

procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Nancy J. Cooke, Applied Psychology Program, Arizona State University; Susan T. Fiske, Department of Psychology, Princeton University; John Gannon, Global Analysis, BAE Systems, McLean, VA; Robert L. Jervis, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; Tania Lambrozo, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley; John McLaughlin, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Jonathan Moreno, Department of History and Sociology of Science, Center for Bioethics, University of Pennsylvania; Scott E. Page, Santa Fe Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor; Charles Perrow, Department of Sociology (emeritus), Yale University; Paul R. Pillar, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University; Stephen M. Robinson, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering (emeritus), University of Wisconsin, Madison; R. Scott Rodgers, Behavioral Influences Analysis Flight (GTRB), National Air and Space Intelligence Center; Frank Yates, Ross School of Business, University of Michigan.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the papers, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this collection of papers was overseen by Richard J. Bonnie, Institute of Law, Psychiatry and Public Policy, University of Virginia. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the papers was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this publication rests entirely with the authors and the institution.


Baruch Fischhoff, Chair

Cherie Chauvin, Study Director

Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2011. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13062.
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 Operations Research for the Masses

 

42

   

 Operations Research on the Back of an Envelope

 

43

   

 Operations Research for Intelligence Analysis

 

48

   

 References

 

53

3

 

Applications of Game Theory in Support of Intelligence Analysis
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

 

57

   

 What Is Game Theory?

 

58

   

 Categorizing Constraints on Foreign Policy Actions

 

61

   

 Empirical Considerations Related to Strategic Interaction

 

70

   

 Prediction of Future Events

 

74

   

 Limitations

 

76

   

 Conclusion

 

78

   

 References

 

79

4

 

Use of Signal Detection Theory as a Tool for Enhancing Performance and Evaluating Tradecraft in Intelligence Analysis
Gary H. McClelland

 

83

   

 Signal Detection Theory

 

85

   

 Benefits of Keeping Score

 

94

   

 Evidence-Based Practice

 

95

   

 Summary

 

97

   

 References

 

97

5

 

Qualitative Analysis for the Intelligence Community
Kiron K. Skinner

 

101

   

 What Is the Issue?

 

101

   

 Theoretical Grounding: The Strategic Perspective

 

103

   

 Insights from the Strategic Perspective

 

105

   

 Concluding Statement

 

110

   

 References

 

111

PART III:
ANALYSTS

 

115

6

 

Individual Reasoning
Barbara A. Spellman

 

117

   

 Characterizations of Reasoning

 

117

   

 Characteristics of Reasoning I: People Seek Coherence

 

125

   

 Characteristics of Reasoning II: People Are Particularists

 

133

   

 Conclusion

 

139

   

 References

 

139

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7

 

Intuitive Theories of Behavior
Hal R. Arkes and James Kajdasz

 

143

   

 Intuitive Theory #1:  Why People Behave in Predictable Ways

 

144

   

 Intuitive Theory #2:  High-Confidence Predictions Are Likely to Be Correct

 

147

   

 Intuitive Theory #3:  Expertise Has Only Benefits, Not Costs

 

151

   

 Intuitive Theory #4:  More Information Is Always Better

 

157

   

 Intuitive Theory #5:  Accurate, Quickest—and Dangerous

 

161

   

 Concluding Comments

 

166

   

 References

 

166

8

 

Group Processes in Intelligence Analysis
Reid Hastie

 

169

   

 What Do Intelligence Teams Do?

 

169

   

 What Is Distinctive About Intelligence Analysis?

 

171

   

 Four Essential Conditions for Effective Teamwork

 

172

   

 Breaking the Overarching Analytic Task into Subtasks

 

173

   

 Why Teamwork Is Important in Intelligence Analysis

 

191

   

 References

 

191

9

 

Social Categorization and Intergroup Dynamics
Catherine H. Tinsley

 

197

   

 Intergroup Dynamics as a Fact of Organizational Life

 

199

   

 How Social Categorization Influences Individuals

 

202

   

 Intergroup Dynamics from Social Categorization Processes

 

204

   

 When Might Intergroup Dynamics Be More Acute?

 

207

   

 How Have Negative Intergroup Effects Been Attenuated?

 

209

   

 Conclusion: Why Interagency Collaboration Is Vital

 

217

   

 References

 

217

PART IV:
ORGANIZATIONS

 

225

10

 

Communicating About Analysis
Baruch Fischhoff

 

197

   

 Analyst–Client Communications

 

228

   

 Analyst–Analyst Communcations

 

241

   

 Managing for Communication Success

 

243

   

 Conclusion

 

245

   

 References

 

246

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The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities.

Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations.

Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

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