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Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets (2009)

Chapter:Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation

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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Section 1 - U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14285.
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Introduction to the Freight Transportation Industry • Every product purchased must be transported. • The nation’s freight system faces increasing challenges. • These challenges involve both the public and private sectors and the decisions they make. • Interests and priorities in decision making in the public and private sectors are not always aligned, leading to inefficiencies in meeting the country’s freight transportation needs. • However, public sector officials can take concrete steps to increase public and private cooperation. • If the United States does not fully meet its demand for the efficient movement of goods, the consequences will include lost jobs and a lower standard of living. Free Flow of Goods Essential to Economic Competitiveness The freight transportation and logistics industry is of growing importance to the U.S. econ- omy. As the U.S. economy is increasingly linked to the economies of other countries, supply chain and transportation networks become more complex and more critical to commerce and to workers whose jobs depend on these linkages. In the United States, the transportation and supply management industry is complex, contain- ing public sector elements such as the road network and waterways and private sector elements such as freight railroads, trucking companies, and private warehouses. All of these elements are interdependent. The growing role of goods movement in the U.S. economy also reflects profound changes at work across the nation where the agricultural and manufacturing economy of the twentieth cen- tury has evolved, changing the mix of jobs held by the U.S. workforce. Services are now the fastest-growing portion of the economy. The freight transportation and logistics sector has the second fastest rate of growth and supports the integration of all other sectors. The efficient movement of goods is essential to the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. A competitive economy needs efficient freight services to move goods reliably at minimum cost. Adequate freight infrastructure supports continued growth in export-related jobs as well as pro- vides affordable consumer products. It also supports export manufacturing and agriculture jobs by making producers more competitive with those in foreign countries. Without an adequate freight system, the prices of all goods we consume will increase, reduc- ing what we can afford to buy and lowering our standard of living. 2 S E C T I O N 1 U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation Freight transportation is fundamental to our way of life.

U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation 3 Users and Beneficiaries of Freight Transportation Freight transportation is so important to the U.S. economy because any industry that pro- duces or sells transportable goods relies on the freight transportation and logistics sector. Together, the industries that rely on freight transportation to function make up a significant por- tion of the U.S. economy. These industries account for over one-third of value-added and over three-quarters of the revenue generated in the U.S. economy1. A non-exhaustive list of sectors in Table 1 shows that the industries that rely on freight transportation have grown an average of 2.8% per year for the last 10 years. These sectors generate more than 3.8 trillion dollars of economic value and all except mining and construction are growing. Trends Behind Fast Growth in Freight Transportation 1. Freight volumes increase with the increased consumption accompanying economic and population growth 2. Manufacturing output continues to grow, despite a decline in manufacturing employment 3. Freight activity increases with the efficiency of America’s just-in-time inventory and supply strategies 4. International trade stimulates growing import and export volumes Globalization, Growth in Trade, and Increases in the Volume of Goods Shipped on U.S. Freight Infrastructure U.S. freight infrastructure is expected to face many challenges as the volume of goods trans- ported on it increases due to both domestic growth and growth in international trade. Long-term freight demand growth is a reflection of a healthy, expanding economy. Because goods-related economic activity in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, oil and gas drilling, mining, and wholesale and retail trade is so significant to the economy, accommodating the increased traffic demand is in the national interest. Both the public and private sectors should work together to ensure that U.S. infrastructure and transportation policy will be able to efficiently transport the predicted increase in volumes. Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Retail Wholesale Construction Total 1997 $86.6 $1,205.4 $124.3 $569.9 $506.8 $406.6 $2,899.6 2007 $122.1 $1,618.6 $111.4 $887.5 $698.0 $356.4 $3,834.4 CAGR % 3.5% 3.0% -1.1% 4.5% 3.3% -1.3% 2.8% Source: IHS Global Insight, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 1. Growth of freight dependent sectors of the U.S. economy. (Value in $Billions, Compound Average Annual Growth Rate 1997–2007) 1 Value-added is the contribution of each sector to the total revenue it is paid for what it sells. Total revenue across sectors double counts the net contributions of each sector as products move from being a collection of raw material inputs through manufacturing/assembly to wholesale distribution and ultimately to final retail sale. Value-added is the measure preferred by economists. These calculations are based on U.S. GDP in 2007.

4 Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets Freight Volumes Are Forecast to Continue to Increase Population, economic growth, and increasing trade will result in additional freight shipments. Freight volumes are projected to nearly double from current levels by 2035. As U.S. supply chains become more global and service-sensitive in scope, the overall demand for U.S. freight trans- portation will increase 90% between 2004 and 2035. This growth represents the research team’s forecast for U.S. freight transportation (i.e., U.S. domestic freight transport and the U.S. portion of imports and exports) increasing from 15 billion tons in 2004 to 29 billion tons in 20352. Mea- sured in ton-miles, growth is even greater, from 6.1 trillion ton-miles in 2004 to 11.7 trillion ton- miles in 2035, or a 92% increase. The growth in freight traffic will affect all modes of transportation. As Figures 1 and 2 show, the amount of freight transported by rail will likewise increase, although not to the same extent as by truck. The following graph (Figure 3) shows the projected increase in the volume of goods moved by water. Waterborne shipments of goods moving along domestic waterways including coasts, lakes, and rivers, are projected to increase from about 870 million short-tons in 2007 to about 1,080 million short-tons by 2035, or by 24%. Shipments of petroleum products and other liquids through the U.S. pipeline network are projected to increase as well, although slowly Source: IHS Global Insight TRANSEARCH Insight Truck Traffic Forecast 2008. Trucks per Day 2035 500-5,000 5,000-10,000 10,000-20,000 20,000-40,000 40,000-60,000 60,000-110,000 Figure 1. Growth in freight demand nationwide—forecast of daily truck traffic 2035. 2 Forecast of Global Insight’s TRANSEARCH freight flow database. This database includes most movements of raw materials and finished goods to, from, and within the United States. The database excludes small packages, some bulk commodities, and municipal wastes, as well as products transiting the United States. At the total level, there is also some double counting of tons (but not ton miles) of goods that use multiple modes of transport or are reshipped. National Freight Truck Traffic Demand Doubles by 2035

U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation 5 Source: IHS Global Insight TRANSEARCH Insight 2035 Rail Traffic Forecast. Figure 2. Growth in freight demand nationwide—forecast of daily rail traffic 2035. 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2007 2010 2015 2020 Year 2025 2030 2035 Sh or t-T o n s (m illi on s) Note: Includes all domestic and foreign cargo shipped on domestic waterways including inland waterways, lakewise, and coastwise. Excludes foreign cargo entering or exiting ports but transported to/from ports by modes other than water. Source: IHS Global Insight TRANSEARCH database. Figure 3. Growth in freight demand nationwide—total waterborne traffic 2007–2035.

6 Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets because pipeline capacity is difficult to add given right-of-way acquisition challenges and requirements for advance regulatory approval processes. The growth in the movement of goods will be felt throughout the country. Even rural regions of the country with slow population and economic growth will see substantial freight traffic increases where there are highway, rail, or waterway routes that connect faster growing regions elsewhere. Rapid Growth in International Trade Over the past 25 years, international trade volumes have increased even more rapidly than the volumes of domestic freight. As a result, the share of imports and exports out of the total amount of goods being transported over U.S. infrastructure has doubled (see Figure 4). Trade-related freight is projected to continue to increase in the long term as a share of all freight and in its rel- ative importance to the economy. Shipping domestic goods within the country usually involves moving goods a shorter distance than when goods move across the border or through ports to overseas destinations. Conse- quently, increases in trade-related freight transportation mean that the distances goods are shipped are increasing as well. Longer shipping distances imply the use of a greater proportion of the transportation network for each product moved. This added use of the system is an extra demand, adding to the pressure on freight system capacity. The nation’s top 10 freight gateways for imported and exported goods—measured by value of trade—are spread around the country’s borders and serve several different modes of trans- portation (see Figure 5). Among the top 10 are 3 airports (JFK, LAX, and Chicago), reflecting the high value of air cargo in international trade; 3 NAFTA border crossings (Detroit, Michigan; Laredo, Texas; and Buffalo- Niagara Falls, New York); and 4 marine ports (Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, and Houston). These gateways do not all serve imports and exports equally. The seaports handle much more import value than export value, while the airports and most land border crossings are more equally split between imports and exports. Much of the imported cargo that arrives at ports is then transported around the country in containers or as bulk cargo by rail and by truck. Note: Share of U.S. real GDP in percent; forecasts after 2007 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Exports Imports Figure 4. International trade accounts for an increasing share of U.S. GDP.

U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation 7 The most significant characteristic of most of these top international trade gateways is that they are located in already congested urban areas, where the pressures on the local transporta- tion system capacity are high even without international trade. This indicates that the challenges of handling growing international trade will be concentrated in areas where adding more capac- ity is difficult. Bottlenecks at gateways will also result in goods taking a longer time to arrive at inland destinations. (See Table 2.) Globalization Affects the Entire Country International trade touches every state and region in the United States. As Figures 6 and 7 demonstrate, almost every U.S. county is an importer and/or an exporter of goods. The effi- ciency of global supply chains affects the costs of goods and our standard of living across the country. Globalization of trade extends to goods moving across the United States. Many inland loca- tions are important for handling traded goods. Supply Chains Are More Complex and Sophisticated Today, goods move along complex supply chains that connect our economy. Supply chains pro- vide raw commodities for the manufacturing process and ultimately move parts and final goods to warehouses and distribution centers, to retail stores, and to the homes of American consumers. Supply chains include both the physical movement of goods and the information and finan- cial links to manage and pay for the goods movement. Although there is no government entity identified as an element of a typical supply chain, the public sector has a crucial role in the chain as a provider of transport infrastructure and regulator of both freight carriers and freight ship- ping industries. RANK PORT MODE $ BILLIONS 1 JFK International Airport, NY Air 134.9 2 Los Angeles, CA Vessel 134.3 3 Detroit, MI Land 130.5 4 New York, NY Vessel 130.4 5 Long Beach, CA Vessel 124.6 6 Laredo, TX Land 93.7 7 Houston, TX Vessel 86.1 8 Chicago, IL Air 73.4 9 L.A. International Airport, CA Air 72.9 10 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Land 70.5 These top 10 gateways account for over 50% of the value of U.S. goods trade. International Trade Gateways Serve the Nation Figure 5. Top 10 U.S. trade gateways, in value. U.S. Custom Ports TEUs Los Angeles, CA 5,700,231 Long Beach, CA 4,961,416 New York, NY 3,893,491 Savannah, GA 2,017,255 Norfolk, VA 1,568,112 Oakland, CA 1,422,585 Charleston, SC 1,400,806 Houston, TX 1,393,554 Seattle, WA 1,276,508 Tacoma, WA 1,132,961 1 Twenty-foot equivalent units. Source: U.S. Maritime Administration. Table 2. Top 10 U.S. ports by TEUs1 2007. Trade issues intersect with public policy in states and regions. Be- come aware of goods sources and flows in the community.

8 Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets Efficient goods movement depends on the capacity and performance of both the public and private portions of the freight transportation system. Coinciding with the growth in freight vol- ume has been the increasing interdependency between the public and private sectors in provid- ing essential freight system services to the population. As freight transportation networks become more sensitive to performance, the capacity and conditions of the publicly provided elements of the system become more critical to the functioning of the private sector’s supply chains. With excess capacity on public portions of the system used up and increasing security and environ- mental regulations, the public sector-related constraints on freight have become more impor- tant for the private sector’s operations and planning. Globalization has meant increasing trade in more types of goods and adding complexity and distance to the transportation of goods to market. Supply chains have thus evolved into far reach- ing and intertwined supply networks. U.S. producers are increasingly able to sell more to over- seas customers. U.S. consumers are able to enjoy a greater variety of products at lower prices through imports. The complexity of supply chains and associated freight transportation services is also grow- ing. Sophisticated technology has allowed global supply chains to be linked and managed more effectively. At the same time, the purposes of U.S. freight system facilities are changing to play more specialized roles within distribution networks. The variety of approaches to warehouse management and distribution center use is increasing, with companies tailoring their facilities to match the specific product mix and market geography served by each location. Control is Source: IHS Global Insight U.S. Inland Trade Monitor County Destination of Import Tons 2007. Figure 6. U.S. import tons by county.

U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation 9 Source: IHS Global Insight U.S. Inland Trade Monitor County Origin of Export Tons 2007. Figure 7. U.S. export tons by county. Figure 8. Global intermodal supply chains involve many businesses and transportation providers.

10 Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets increasingly outsourced to third parties who sometimes combine the goods of different compa- nies to achieve economies of scale across interlaced freight networks. Decision-making control can be far away from the physical locations that make up a network. Where decisions are made continues to evolve over time. These shifts are changing local and regional influence over the freight transportation system. Purpose of Facilities Is Changing In the past, freight facilities such as terminals and warehouses were less sophisticated than today. Modern-day logistics practices have transformed the function and purposes of freight facil- ities. Freight facilities are now much more automated and computerized to meet the needs of just- in-time delivery practices for many manufacturers. Other facilities are organized for storing goods whose final destination is not decided until as late as possible, governed by market demand. The high-volume supply chains of large retailers that extend to overseas manufacturers have facility requirements that permit segmentation of freight flows along geographic lines and by the product life cycle of the individual products. Because consumer products can vary greatly in how long they are viable as products in the market place (contrast the product life of digital cameras with that of graphite pencils), retailers of both have a financial incentive to treat the products differently in their supply chains and distribution centers. Many warehouses are now more commonly referred to as distribution centers (see Figure 9). The emphasis of these facilities is more oriented toward being an intermediary in the movement of the goods than in the storage of goods. The operational goal for many of these facilities is to increase the velocity of goods moving through them rather than manage product storage. Distribution center networks are modified on a regular basis by companies trying to minimize costs through optimization of space requirements and facility locations. They try to achieve a bal- ance between focusing on their own supply networks versus focusing on the need to serve their customers. Distribution center locations and sizing decisions are specific to the company’s own business network, which is made up of suppliers, stores, factories, and/or customer locations with which it does business. Consequently, the market geography served by a distribution center can be as large as the entire continent or as small as a portion of one metropolitan area, depending on the size, density, velocity, and other operational characteristics of the shipper’s business. Many freight facilities and distribution centers are used by multiple companies. Involvement of specialty “third-party logistics” companies that manage transportation services on behalf of others has increased the shared use of facilities. The cost savings from economies of scale of larger shared facilities benefits shippers and their customers, but it increases the complexity of the freight networks serving each facility. Most Freight Activity Happens Outside of Public View Although freight transportation and supply chains affect every community, most freight activ- ity occurs outside of the public view. Every urban area has extensive freight transportation activ- ity. Large-scale freight activity tends to be concentrated in industrialized sections of urban areas. Freight deliveries are concentrated at night and early morning, to minimize exposure to conges- tion and to have goods ready for sale on shelves during regular business hours. The following three examples illustrate freight handling that is largely unnoticed by the public. 1. Port of Wilmington, Delaware. This Atlantic seaport on the Delaware River is the largest import port for fresh fruit, bananas, and juice concentrate in North America. It is located in Photo courtesy of Cargo Agencies Diplomat Kft. Figure 9. Distribution center. Manufacturing and freight distribution facilities located away from prominent public view have far reaching impacts on U.S. consumers, jobs, industry, and the transportation network.

U.S. Economy Depends on Freight Transportation 11 an industrial area close to Interstate 95, hardly noticed by the thousands of motorists who pass by the port every day. Because the port is located away from downtown Wilmington, even local residents do not necessarily think of their city as an important port city (see Figure 10). 2. CenterPoint Intermodal Center, Joliet, Illinois. The public–private redevelopment of the former Joliet Arsenal outside Chicago into a major intermodal rail and distribution center relieved pressure on downtown Chicago rail yards. This facility combines a rail yard that han- dles cargo containers from the West Coast with distribution centers and warehouses that store goods. These goods are then distributed by truck to stores throughout the Midwest. The facil- ity is about 1 mile from heavily used roads and therefore is not seen by most of the popula- tion of the greater Chicago region (see Figure 11). This facility includes distribution centers and warehouses for several companies that use it to supply a diverse set of customers. Customers served by the location include businesses that buy goods for use in their own operations as well as retailers that buy a large volume of man- ufactured imports for resale to end consumers. 3. Montgomery, Alabama, Auto Plant. The opening of a new Hyundai automobile assembly plant in Montgomery, Alabama, has created a demand for inbound shipments of automotive components and outbound shipments of finished vehicles. This large plant is located in a pre- viously undeveloped area just east of Interstate 65 and adjacent to CSX railroad, both of which are used for freight shipments to and from this facility (see Figure 12). A $1.4 billion investment by Hyundai funded the construction of the engine manufactur- ing and automobile assembly plant. The plant receives parts from more than 70 suppliers located elsewhere in North America in order to produce up to 300,000 vehicles per year. This plant has resulted in increased trade through the port of Mobile, Alabama, as well as more demand for rail and trucks to move auto parts and finished vehicles. Operation of Freight Systems The performance of the U.S. freight transportation system is remarkably good given the scale and volume of what is physically moving every day. In spite of increasing highway congestion, so far the entire system has continued to operate smoothly without much public notice. There are exceptions, for example, when the freight system is brought to the attention of the public by the media during infrequent incidents of severe disruptions due to weather events or operational or infrastructure failures. However, there are a few areas, such as in Southern California, where the local environmental and traffic impacts of freight activity are so significant they have drawn ongoing attention from the public. Though direct comparisons are difficult, U.S. freight efficiency is believed to compare favor- ably with that of other countries as a result of prior investments in national freight transporta- tion infrastructure and the economies of scale achievable in a market the size of the United States. Though not true in every case, it is generally less costly to move a unit of goods within the United States than it is to move a unit of goods over the same distance in other countries. Photo courtesy of the Port of Wilmington, Delaware. Figure 10. Port of Wilmington, Delaware. Photos courtesy of CenterPoint Properties. Figure 11. Center- Point Intermodal Center, Joliet, Illinois. Photo courtesy of Hyundai. Figure 12. Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Plant, Montgomery, Alabama.

The good performance of the freight sector has been possible because the system ultimately has some flexibility, and, importantly, the portions of the nation’s infrastructure that are already severely capacity-constrained are still limited. With a few exceptions, this smooth functioning has been the status quo. This performance has been achieved in the era following the economic deregulation of trucking and rail at the beginning of the 1980s. Prices charged by carriers were driven down by competition and services offered could be more easily created to match customer needs. This has led to complacency about freight system performance that may put decisions to take needed action to forestall future problems at risk. Consequences for Public Sector Officials Given the growing challenge to public sector officials in upholding the public’s role in Amer- ica’s freight system, it is important to understand where and how these officials can have an impact on this crucial part of the economy. Part of this understanding involves learning about the types of decisions that affect the freight industry, the role of the private sector in freight trans- portation, and how to work together with the private sector to meet the future challenges facing the freight system. 12 Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets

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TRB’s National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) Report 1: Public and Private Sector Interdependence in Freight Transportation Markets is designed as a primer on relationships between public sector and private sector stakeholders in the freight transportation industry. The report explores the freight industry through the use of examples, case studies, and a broad-based examination of the mutually dependent issues facing public and private investment decision makers.

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