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Suggested Citation:"Introduction." National Research Council. 1989. The Impact of Defense Spending on Nondefense Engineering Labor Markets: A Report to the National Academy of Engineering. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1708.
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Suggested Citation:"Introduction." National Research Council. 1989. The Impact of Defense Spending on Nondefense Engineering Labor Markets: A Report to the National Academy of Engineering. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1708.
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Page 2

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INTRODUCTION The National Academy of Eng~neenng (NAE) requested that the National Research Council through its Office of Scientific and Engineenng Personnel (OSEP) undertake an exploratory study to assess how recent increases in defense spending are affecting the supply of engineering personnel in civilian, nondefense labor markets. The current expansion of the defense program coincides with recent increases in the supply of engineers. There is, however, concern about the potential impact of the decline in the college-age population on future supply. If the availability of engineers for nondefense industries were to be reduced in the future, less qualified workers may be substituted, with adverse effects on productivity and costs, contributing to a weakening of international competitiveness. This issue is seen as part of the general problem of perturbation of the engineering labor market bY major chances in government programs the energy crisis of the 1970s~ , , _ . _' , and other external shocks. To evaluate it requires reviewing recent changes in demand for and supply of engineers and the current market, as well as estimating future demand and the ability of the market's supply adjustment mechanisms to deal with it. From this review it may be possible to deter~Tune whether policy interventions are caned for. The focus of the study is on engineers; information on scientists and technicians is included because of their potential to substitute for engineers in employment. ~ , ~ ~ ~ The Research Council appointed a Pane! on Engineering Labor Markets to oversee the study and to prepare this report for the NAE. For the use of the Panel, OSEP assembled relevant statistics on defense expenditures and on the eng~neenng, scientific, and technical labor market. Three papers were commissioned.) The first reviews the critical incidents that affected employment of scientific and engineering personnel in the postwar period; this caner helps to identify national forces that triggered personnel changes and provides the background needed to learn from historical patterns. The other two papers review, respectively, methods of projecting demand for engineers and supply. In addition, recruiters for major companies and college placement officials were consulted to get a picture of Me current labor market. The Pane! met on May ~ and 2, 1986, with several of the recruiters and placement officials, authors of the commissioned papers, and staff of the NAE and OSEP to review and discuss the issues and the material assembled and met subsequently to reach consensus on the report and its conclusions. This report first reviews the effects of the defense program on the labor market for engineers from 1945 to the present and considers prospects for the next few years. It then examines in a more general way the methods by which the effects of major shocks or perturbations may be anticipated and evaluated iThese commissioned papers are included in Appendix A of this report: Eli Ginzberg, "Scientific and Engineering Personnel: Lessons and Policy Directions"; W. Lee Hansen, "What Can Demand and Manpower Requirement Models Tell Us About the Impact of Defense Spending on the Labor Market for Scientists and Engineers?"; and Michael McPherson, "Modeling the Supply of Scientists and Engineers: An Assessment of He DauffenBach-Fiorito WorL" 1

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