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- CONCLUSIONS The main conclusions of this report are summarized as follows: The engineering labor market has exhibited a high degree of resiliency to the shocks of external forces, such as wide fluctuations in defense spending (see p. 41. The current defense buildup represents a relatively small increase when compared with earlier buildups (see pp. 5-71. · Although the current demand for engineering services is high, evidence drawn from a variety of sources does not suggest pervasive or serious industnal shortages. However, problems may exist in particular fields requiring highly specific training, such as optics, and shortages of engineering faculty have been well documented (see pp. 8-1 1~. Current understanding of the distribution of the best-qualified engineers . between defense and commercial markets is poor (see pp. 10-11~. Quantitative models of engineering manpower supply and demand developed thus far are inadequate to predict effects of future defense Brogan requirements on the civilian economy or other similar issues (see pp. 13-15~. In addition, the Panel suggests the following areas of further study to improve the quantity and the quality of information about the engineering labor market: There is a significant need to refine and improve our understanding of all aspects of the engineering labor market. Better understanding is needed of how market adjustment mechanisms work and what steps would improve their functioning (see pp. 15-171. Quantitative models of engineering manpower supply and demand need further improvement. There is little reason to expend large sums In using present models to predict the future. Such projections may bear little resemblance to the actual future. But basic research on the models should be aimed to provide eventually an analytic tool to make more useful projections. The ability to assess potential future problems depends strongly on the development of a suitable continuing empirical knowledge base about engineering personnel supply =d demand. Careful attention should be given to accumulating the essential data, to bndging current gaps, and to avoiding unnecessary duplication of effort Considerably more attention needs to be given to conceptualizing and developing indicators of quality and, therefore, of understanding the most effective means of improving quality of education and of engineering performance (see pp. 15-17~. There is need to monitor the engineering labor market on a continuing basis, using both the developing emptncal data base and the improving theoretical models to recognize emerging problems in a timely marmer (pp. 15-17~. A study is needed to understand the rapidly changing international character of the supply of engineering services and its effect upon the competitiveness arid national security of the United States (see p. 91. 1 8 . ;,
