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BEHAVIORAL SOE AND THE SECRETS Toward the Prevention of Assassination Division of Mental Health and Behavioral Medicine INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE Jane Takeuchi Fredric Solomon W. Walter Menninger Editors NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1981 DEC 3 0 1981 LIBRARY
C-l NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors ac- cording to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. IOM The Institute of Medicine was chartered in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to enlist distinguished members of the appropriate profes- sions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. In this, the Institute acts under both the Academy's 1863 congressional charter responsibility to be an adviser to the federal government and its own initiative in identifying issues of medical care, research, and education. This conference summary was developed by the staff of the Division of Mental Health and Behavioral Medicine, Institute of Medicine, with the advice and assistance of the planning committee chairman, W. Walter Menninger. Conclusions and recommendations by conference participants on matters of policy are reported to assure completeness of the summary, but are not recommendations of the Institute of Medicine. IOM Publication Number 81-008 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 81-85235 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03225-3 Available from National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America
National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine Workshop on Behavioral Research and the Secret Service: Problems in Assessing and Managing Dangerous Behavior Planning Committee W. Walter Menninger, M.D., Chair* Senior Staff Psychiatrist Division of Law and Psychiatry Menninger Foundation Topeka, KS Elissa P. Benedek, M.D. Director Center for Forensic Psychiatry Ann Arbor, MI Joseph T. English, M.D.* Director of Psychiatry St. Vincent's Hospital New York, NY Shervert H. Frazier, M.D. Psychiatris t-in-Chie f McLean Hospital Belmont, MA David A. Hamburg, M.D.* Director Division of Health Policy Research and Education Harvard University Cambridge, MA Kenneth R. Hammond, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Center for Research on Judgment and Policy Institute of Behavioral Sciences University of Colorado Boulder, CO Lincoln E. Moses, Ph.D.* Professor Department of Statistics Stanford University Stanford, CA *Member, Institute of Medicine Frank M. Ochberg, M.D. Director Department of Mental Health State of Michigan Lansing, MI Saleem A. Shah, Ph.D. Chief Center for Studies of Crime and Delinquency National Institute of Mental Health Rockville, MD Alan A. Stone, M.D. Professor of Law and Psychiatry Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences Stanford, CA Charles H. Whitebread, L.L.B. Visiting Professor of Law University of Southern California Law Center University Park Los Angeles, CA iii
Marvin E. Wolfgang, Ph.D. Professor of Sociology and Professor of Law University of Pennsylvania Center for Studies in Criminology and Criminal Law Philadelphia, PA Franklin E. Zimring, J.D. Professor of Law University of Chicago Law School Chicago, IL Workshop Staff Jane Takeuchi, Ph.D. Staff Officer Division of Mental Health and Behavioral Medicine Fredrlc Solomon, M.D. Director Division of Mental Health and Behavioral Medicine Delores Parron, Ph.D. Associate Director Division of Mental Health and Behavioral Medicine Mireille Mesias Secretary Division of Mental Health and Behavioral Medicine
CONTENTS Chairman's Introduction, W. Walter Menninger 1 Questions Raised by Secret Service and Summaries of Conference Responses 7 Opening Remarks, David A. Hamburg 13 Opening Remarks, H.S. Knight 17 Secret Service Expectations from the Conference, Robert R. Snow 19 Summary of Workshop and Plenary Discussions 23 Papers "Problems in Assessing and Managing Dangerous Behavior," Shervert H.Frazier, et al 93 "Notes on the Secret Service and the Protection of the President," Robert JJichels 107 "Learning from Experience, the Secret Service, and Controlled Experimentation," Lincoln E. Moses 113 "Problems in Assessing and Managing Dangerous Behavior: Some Comments and Reflections," Saleem A. Shah 121 Presentations "Predicting Violent Behavior: A Review and Critique of Clinical Prediction Studies," John Monahan 129 "On Interviewing Potentially Dangerous Persons," Shervert H. Frazier 133 "Problems and Methods in Predicting Parole Behavior: Utility of Prediction Instruments," Don M. Gottfredson 139
"Suicide and Suicide Prevention Research," James H. Billings 143 "Assessing the Credibility of Nuclear Threat Messages," Brian M. Jenkins 145 "Coping With Violence," W. Walter Menninger 147 "The Secret Service and the Mental Health Delivery System: Problems and Prospects," Joseph T. English 155 "Legal and Ethical Implications of Secret Service Intervention," Charles R. Halpern 159 "Ethical and Medical Implications of Secret Service Intervention," Robert Michels 163 "Personal Liberty and the Secret Service Protective Function," Charles H. Whitebread 167 "Some Thoughts on 'Threats' and Free Speech, and Case Management," R. Kirkland Gable 169 Memoranda "Research and Legal Issues," R. Kirkland Gable .......... 171 "On Assessment," Kenneth R. Hammond ............... 175 "The Escalating Incidence of Assassination," Brian M. Jenkins ......................... 177 "Prediction Research," John Monahan ............... 179 "On Case Management and Decision-Making," Loren Roth ............................ 181 "Secret Service 'Dangerousness ' Research," Franklin E. Zimring ....................... 183 APPENDIXES Appendix A Conference Participants ............ 185 Appendix B Conference Agenda ............... 187 vi