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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment (2014)

Chapter: Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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C

Meetings and Speakers

MEETING 1
JUNE 26-27, 2013
KECK CENTER OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
WASHINGTON, D.C.

Vision for the Study

Michael Shoults, Senior Executive Service, Office of the Assistant Chief of Staff of the Air Force for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U.S. Air Force

Air Force Global Strike Command Perspectives

Duane Hiebsch, Chief, Strategic Plans (A8X)

Regional Conflict and Nuclear Deterrence

David Stein, Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy)

Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Perspectives

Pamela McCue, Deputy Director for Analytic Resources, DIA

Discrimination and Escalation Management in U.S. Nuclear Policy

Elbridge Colby, Principal Analyst and Division Lead for Global Strategic Affairs, Strategic Initiatives Group, Center for Naval Analyses

Page 115 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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Joint Staff Perspectives

Timothy G. Fay, Deputy Director, Command, Control and Nuclear Operations, Joint Staff

Recent Deterrence Studies at IDA

Mike Wheeler, Senior Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses

RAND Corporation (Results of Recent Studies)

Paul Davis, Principal Researcher, Pardee Graduate School

MEETING 2
SEPTEMBER 17-19, 2013
U.S. STRATEGIC COMMAND
OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE, NEBRASKA

Deterrence Planning

STRATCOM J52, J53, J55

Wargaming

STRATCOM J55

Force Structure Analysis

STRATCOM J55 and J87

Stockpile Sizing

STRATCOM J87

Campaign Plan Assessment

STRATCOM J9

Ongoing Areas of Improvement

JFCC GS, STRATCOM J55

MEETING 3
OCTOBER 8-9, 2013
KECK CENTER OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
WASHINGTON, D.C.

North Korea’s WMD Profile

Katy Hassig, Senior Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses

Page 116 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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Iran

Gregory Giles, SAIC

Deterrence of Russia: Past and Present

Linton F. Brooks, Department of Energy (retired)

China

J. Stapleton Roy, Distinguished Scholar and Founding Director Emeritus, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States Wilson Center

Deterrence and the Social Sciences

Hriar Cabayan, Joint Staff/J-38

Narrative Dimensions of Deterrence: Recent Developments in Neurobiology

William Casebeer, Program Manager, DARPA

MEETING 4
NOVEMBER 19-21, 2013
ARNOLD AND MABEL BECKMAN CENTER
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT IRVINE

Crisis Stability and Long-Range Strike

Forrest Morgan, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation

Reducing the Great Divide: Leveraging the Data Deluge to Modernize Operational Deterrence Analytics

Andrea Little Limbago, Chief Social Scientist, Berico Technologies

Ballistic Missile Defense and Associated Analytic Issues

John Ahearne, Executive Director Emeritus, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society

An Enabler for Smart Power Analytics: The Hybridization of Algorithmic and Heuristical Methodologies and Tools—The Vit Tall Analytical Approach

Steve Chan, Director/Senior Fellow, IBM Network Science Research Center/Harvard Kennedy School Center for Public Leadership

WMD and Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Overview

Robert Powell, Robson Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

Page 117 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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Quantitative Approaches to the Study of Nuclear Deterrence

Matthew Fuhrmann, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Texas A&M University

Deterrence in Context

Patrick Morgan, Emeritus Tierney Chair, Peace and Conflict, Political Science School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine

Sanctions, Statecraft, and Nuclear Proliferation

Etel Solingen, Thomas T. and Elizabeth C. Tierney Chair in Peace Studies, Political Science School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine

Perspectives

Brad Roberts, William J. Perry Fellow in International Security, Stanford University

WRITING MEETINGS

• Meeting 5, December 17-19, 2013, AT&T Conference Center, University of Texas, Austin

• Meeting 6, January 13-15, 2014, The Keck Center of the National Academies, Washington, D.C.

Page 114 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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Page 115 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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Page 117 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Meetings and Speakers." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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Next: Appendix D: Tailored Deterrence and Strategic Capabilities: Situation-Specific Knowledge of Peers, Near-Peers, Regional, and Non-State Actors »
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Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces.

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.

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