Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
4 Future Demand for Agricultural Scientists To predict the skills and abilities that agricultural scientists will require, the committee assessed future supply and demand trends for these scientists and developed simple projections of possible changes in the distribution of employment opportunities among employment sectors, work activities, and disciplines. The committee's analysis produced no evidence projected changes in market demand will require changes in competency needs. On the supply side, the committee concluded it is unlikely a serious shortage will arise for scientists trained to carry out agricultural and food system research. Underlying this judgment is the assumption agricultural science positions will provide com- petitive salaries, professional opportunities, and interactions with colleagues. The committee's supply-side conclusions rested on the finding that about 40 percent of doctoral scientists who worked in applied agriculture held degrees in other disciplines, usually basic science. This mobility has potential benefits to agricultural science and research. The committee expects this mobility could grow if basic scientists are persuaded agricultural career opportunities exist in businesses, research institutions, and academia. 41
42 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS PROJECTIONS A number of projections of U.S. science and engineering labor markets have been made, including some disaggregated according to field of employment. Only a few projections examine doctoral scientists, however. The NSF (NSF, 1979) and the Bureau of La- bor Statistics (BLS) (U.S. Department of Labor, 1975) produced projections of doctoral scientists. The most recent NSF publica- tion about this subject was issued in 1979, extends only to 1987, and does not disaggregate the relevant fields more finely than "life sciences." It provides little information directly pertinent to agri- cultural scientists. The most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics doctoral projections were issued in 1975 and extended into 1985. They too did not disaggregate fields below the life sciences level. No new BLS or NSF doctoral projections are currently anticipated. Other projections that have covered agricultural scientists and engineers combine those individuals with bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degrees. The USDA issued projections in 1986 that ex- tend to 1990 (Coulter et al., 1986); the BLS, projections that extend to 1995 (U.S. Department of Labor, 1984); and the NSF, projections that extend to 1987 (NSF, 1984b). In responding to its charge, the committee found these pooled projections of limited use. The committee determined it is inap- propriate to assume that the job placement outlook for doctoral agricultural scientists is similar to that for all agricultural scientists with bachelor's, master's, and Ph.D. degrees. Moreover, there are differences in degree distribution among types of employers and activities. For example, 58 percent of doctoral agricultural sci- entists and engineers (by field of degree) worked in academia in 1983 (see Figure 3-2); 25 percent of all agricultural scientists and engineers worked in this sector. Only 26 percent of these doctoral scientists and engineers worked in industry; 46 percent of all agri- cultural scientists and engineers worked in industry. In terms of major work activities of scientists and engineers among all sectors, 38 percent of those at the doctoral level were primarily engaged in R&D (see Table 3-4); only 30 percent of all agricultural scientists and engineers were similarly engaged (NSF, 1985b,e). Another difference in job opportunities for doctoral, master's, and bachelor's degree recipients who studied agriculture can be noted by the percentage of those who actually worked in agri- culture. About two-thirds of the 1980 graduates who received
FUTURE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS 43 bachelor's and master's degrees in agricultural disciplines and were employed in science and engineering jobs in 1982 worked in agri- culture (NSF, 1984a). In 1981 slightly more than 80 percent of 1979-1980 agricultural doctoral graduates had jobs in agriculture (NRG, 1985b). Available projections on Ph.D.s working in agricultural sci- ence are also inadequate. They are outdated, too aggregated, or do not extend sufficiently into the future. The committee recom- mends an institution or organization with appropriate technical expertise working under the guidance of public sector agencies, particularly the USDA and NSF, should develop projections of supply and demand of scientists at least every three to five years. Congress should commit funds to support compilation, analysis, and distribution of such data. The committee used a variety of data sources to project con- ditions of the labor market for Ph.D. scientists in agriculture (by employment field). Among these sources were several U.S. gov- ernment agencies; trade and educational associations; and agricul- tural science leaders, educators, and research administrators. The data in the source publications were difficult to compare because they are represented by different categories and defini- tions. Additionally, qualitative characteristics of Ph.D.s are hard to measure and, consequently, to project into the future. For these reasons, the committee took the perceptions of agricultural sci- ence leaders, educators, and research administrators into account in making its projections and drawing conclusions. Future Scenarios There are problems in assessing how future employment de- mand might influence the skills and abilities required of agricul- tural scientists. It is difficult to predict future needs because of rapid scientific advancements, which are causing needs for eco- nomic adjustments. There is no verified model, which means that assumptions about international developments, public and private support for research, and academic demographics are necessary. The committee interviewed public- and private-sector research leaders and administrators to assess future needs. Other research leaders and educators directed attention to changes in the skills that future Ph.D.s will need when beginning their careers. The
44 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS perceptions of research leaders helped the committee structure an- alytical assessments and projections. Sector and activity scenarios for the next decade were examined. Three scenarios for employment demand are projectedâmini- mum growth, extension of current (1975-1985) growth, and max- imum growth. (Because only economic indicator of demand is employment, the term agricultural scientist in the ensuing section is defined in terms of field of employment.) To make appropriate curricular changes, it is necessary to assess the time period during which new graduates will receive their training. Individuals who received Ph.D.s in agricultural science in 1984 required an average of 5.9 years of registered time to obtain their degrees, and 8.4 years of total time (NRC, 1985c). Many Ph.D. recipients in the 1990s are in graduate school. The 1985-1995 Period Because of variable growth rates in academia, industry, and government, the distribution of agricultural science Ph.D.s among employment sectors would change by 1995, with a continuing shift toward industry (see Table 4-1). Academia would decrease its share slightly but would still be employing nearly half of the agri- cultural science and engineering Ph.D.s; industry would increase its share from 34 to 38 percent; and the government would decrease its share from 18 to 15 percent. A more sophisticated projection requires consideration of fac- tors that are likely to affect future growth rates among sectors. The committee examined factors expected to affect academia, in- dustry, and government. Academia In academia, R&D expenditures and enrollments are the two dominant factors determining employment demand. During the 1975-1985 period, these two parameters followed dis- tinctly different patterns. R&D expenditures increased steadily between 1975 and 1982, but leveled off in 1984. This increase reflected support from state government for research at land-grant colleges and universities and at agricultural experiment stations. Currently, about 30 percent of academia's agricultural R&D ex- penditures come from the federal government, about 60 percent from state government, and the balance from industry and grower organizations (NSF, 1985d).
FUTURE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS 45 TABLE 4-1 Sectoral Employment Distributions, 1985-1995 (percentage) 1995 Share of Agricultural 1985 Share of Agricultural Ph.D. Employment Ph.D. Employment Current Trendsb Minimum Maximum Academia Industry Government 48 34 47 (1.4) 38 (2.8) 15 (0.5) 43 (0.0) 35 (1.4) 50 (9.0) 15 (2.9) 18 40 (2.8) 17 (0.0) Total 100 100 (1.8) 100 (1.1) 100 (5.4) aFigures in parentheses show projected yearly 1985-1995 growth rates based on alternative assumptions. bTrends are for 1975-1985. SOURCE: NRC (1986b). Data on the number of degrees conferred (bachelor's, master's, and doctoral) are widely viewed as the best available data to use as a surrogate for enrollment. (Data on enrollments for academic institutions are not consistently collected or compiled.) Enrollments declined steadily from the mid-1970s until the mid-1980s (U.S. Department of Education, 1983). Yet, academic employment of agricultural science doctorates increased steadily. These and data cited in Chapter 3 (see Table 3-4) suggest that a growing portion of faculty time was devoted to research and extension activities instead of teaching. If these trends in en- rollments and R&D funding continue, employment demand for academic department and experiment station staff with Ph.D.s may become more dependent on state and federal appropriations for agricultural research. There is little evidence that recent downward enrollment trends in the agricultural sciences at the undergraduate level are changing. Available demographic data point to an approximate 15 percent decline in the college-age population (18- to 22-year-olds) between 1985 and 1995 (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1984). Economic prospects throughout the agricultural, food, and fiber industries appear to be reinforcing declining enrollments. As shown in Table 4-1, the committee believes a minimum
46 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS rate of change in academic employment over the 1985-1995 pe- riod would be 0.0 percent per year; the maximum rate would be a continuation of the trend of 1.4 percent per year experienced during 1975-1985. While these growth rates in the total number of Ph.D.s working in academia are low, additional opportunities will arise for new hires, because there are significant numbers of individuals in the existing labor pool who will be retiring. About one-quarter of academically employed applied agricultural science Ph.D.s will reach 65 by 1995 (NRC, 1985c). Industry In addition to factors such as regulatory policy and international trade, the degree to which commercially significant biotechnologic advances occur in plant breeding; pesticide devel- opment; animal health, growth, and reproduction; and related areas will determine the near-term employment demand in the industrial sector. Multibillion-dollar worldwide markets for new products stem- ming from biotechnology are considered realistic within 20 years. U.S. agricultural industries are attempting to capitalize on biotech- nologic advances by structuring R<kD activities toward short- and long-term commercial opportunities. Commercial success will have an effect on the demand for agricultural and food scientists because most industrial firms devote a percentage of gross sales to R&D programs. In the agrochemical industry, for example, R&D expen- ditures rose in proportion to sales through the 1970s. The annual increase of RfcD expenditures in 1985, adjusted for inflation, was close to 10 percent (NAGA, 1986). It is difficult to predict how applications of biotechnology will improve agricultural competitiveness in less-developed countries (LDCs). Some individuals believe that biotechnology will upgrade agricultural productive capacity in areas of the world where food is grown at or near subsistence levels, with little or no yield- enhancing inputs, such as fertilizer (Hardy, 1985). Adjustments will occur in international commodity markets and the structure and location of agribusinesses if biotechnology can be applied in LDCs. This outcome may affect the kinds of skills that U.S. agricultural scientists need. The committee does not foresee enough biotechnology-gener- ated profits to finance additional R&D activity for up to a decade. But the committee does foresee growing emphasis in industrial research programs on ways to use biotechnology to develop
FUTURE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS 47 products, production processes, and diagnostic and monitoring ca- pabilities. A minimum growth rate in the industrial sector from 1985 to 1995 period would be a continuation of the 1975-1985 growth rate of 2.8 percent per year. If economic conditions improve, a max- imum annual growth rate of 9 percent in industrial employment could occur. Government Current fiscal pressures at the federal level are unlikely to lessen during the next several years. But costs in equip- ment, facilities, and other support are increasing, which means that more funds are needed to sustain the current number of ac- tive scientists. From 1985 to 1995, the committee assumes that 0.0 is the minimum annual growth rate in government sector employment. The assumed maximum growth rate would be 2.9 percent per year, which is equal to the actual 1975-1985 average annual growth rate. Summary and Implications of 1985-1995 Scenarios Shifts Among Sectors Table 4-1 shows the growth rates assumed under each sce- nario and the estimated proportions of employment by sector. Several shifts occur in moving from current trends to the mini- mum and maximum scenarios. A progressively larger decline in academia's share of total employed agricultural Ph.D.sâfrom 47 to 35 percentâwould be accompanied by corresponding increases in industry's shareâfrom 38 to 50 percent. The number employed by the government would remain relatively stable at about 15 to 17 percent regardless of scenario. The most likely projection foresees a smaller share of total agri- cultural doctoral employment for academia and a correspondingly larger share for industry. Each of these sectors would account for a roughly equal portion of total agricultural scientist employment. Required Skills The committee drew tentative conclusions from the data it analyzed regarding changes in skills required by future agricultural scientists. From 1975 to 1985 the industrial and academic shares of
48 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS employed doctoral degree recipients in agricultural sciences moved in opposite directions. Industry's share increased and academia's decreased. The committee believes that this pattern will continue until 1995. It is unclear what this shift means for educational programs and priorities, however. Many individuals expressed the view that doctoral-level scientists in industry, many of whom follow career paths that soon leave the laboratory, can best learn the skills they need on the job. Industrial research leaders stressed their interest in scientists with strong basic skills and the ability to work in multidisciplinary, mission-oriented environments. In contrast to academia, work patterns in industry are skewed toward non-R<kD activities. Only 25 percent of industrial scien- tists with doctorates in applied agricultural disciplines were pri- marily involved in R&D in 1975. Ten years later, the figure had marginally increased to 27 percent. The time devoted to man- agement and marketing represented another change in industrial work activity distribution. Management accounted for 46 percent of the primary activities in 1975, but decreased to 28 percent in 1985. Other activities, which included marketing and responding to regulatory requirements, rose from 25 percent in 1973 to 41 percent in 1985. The difficulties involved in applying technologies, gaining li- censes, distributing and marketing commodities, and advising farmers in the use of new technologies probably accounted for much of this shift toward non-R&D activity in the industrial sector. While thorough training in basic science skills should be the prin- cipal educational goal, providing graduates with skills to carry out these non-R&D activities should be explored. Specific objectives should include skills in applied problem-solving, communications, and management of the application of biotechnological advances. Graduates should also understand economic market forces and opportunities, including those related to the changes in the inter- national marketplace, trade rules, export controls, international patent and licensing laws, and agricultural policies. The shift in the skills needed as a consequence of the expan- sion of industrial activities may lead to changes in the skills needed in government and academia. Academic research administrators and leaders in state legislatures and Congress may need to direct additional research support to public policy issues including the economic, environmental, and social implications of agricultural
FUTURE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS 49 technologies. Government regulatory agencies may have to in- crease their doctoral staffs to evaluate scientific issues that arise in regulatory decision making. In spite of the prevalence of non-R&D work activities in indus- try, the committee observed that industrial leaders prefer scientists trained in the basic sciences. In 1985, nearly 40 percent of Ph.D.s in industry working in applied science positions came from nonap- plied agricultural science fields, a percentage which the committee expects to grow among newly hired Ph.D.s. (see Table 3-3). There are two possible reasons for the large number of indi- viduals in industry who have Ph.D.s in basic science disciplines. Several industrial research leaders who met with the committee believe that many scientific and technologic advances depend on knowledge about molecules and cells. Another possible explana- tion is that most Ph.D. scientists and engineers in industry begin their careers in research. After the scientists spend some years in research, higher-paying career opportunities open up in product development and management, marketing, and other corporate di- visions. (This shift in work activities implies that a broader range of abilities, in addition to research skills, would benefit Ph.D. scientists employed in industry.) Beyond the Mid-1990s The committee examined only general trends within the agri- cultural science and engineering doctoral labor market to assess likely outcomes through the late 1990s and beyond. Academia It is easier to predict Ph.D. employment in acade- mia than in the other sectors. This is because academic employ- ment depends to a major extent on student enrollments, which in turn are influenced by demographic factors. The size of the cohort of 18- to 22-year-olds, the source of undergraduate enroll- ments, can be estimated with some precision. Individuals born in 1984 will be candidates for undergraduate academic enrollment in 2002âmore than midway into the 1995-2005 decade. Demo- graphic factors are not the only ones influencing enrollments, how- ever. Enrollments in colleges and universities and in agricultural science programs will depend on student preferences and labor market conditions. Negative perceptions about agriculture and
50 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS food system issues are likely to discourage students, at least in the near term, from pursuing careers in agriculture. If national leaders stress the importance of the United States remaining at the forefront of technology and efficiency in all agricultural industries, the image of agriculture as a career choice will improve. Public confidence in agricultural industries may also build over the next decade as agricultural commodity market conditions improve. In addition, faculty retirements will increase between 1995 and 2005. In 1985, 32 percent of the Ph.D.s working in applied agricultural science fields in universities were between the ages of 45 and 55. All who survive will reach age 65 between 1995 and 2005, and most will probably retire near that age. Another factor that may help to change enrollments is the extent to which the United States attracts foreign students to ed- ucational programs. If land-grant colleges and universities make efforts to improve educational curricula and opportunities in this country for foreign students, enrollments of foreign students might grow in the future. Increased enrollment would, in turn, affect the kinds of skills needed by certain faculty members. Language skills, knowledge of agricultural conditions and field research opportuni- ties abroad, familiarity with and access to international scientific literature, and opportunities to work outside the United States would become more important. Industry Agricultural scientists in industry are expected to continue to move from predominantly research jobs into other facets of business during the course of their careers. A growing percentage of the agricultural scientists in industry would ben- efit from more technical, analytic, and communication skills as well as basic science education. Because most U.S. agribusinesses have become internationally active, knowledge about regions of the world will also become more valuable. While formal educa- tional programs are important for the development of scientists' skills, continuing education and learning on the job will also be important. Government Among all the scenarios, committee projections show the least change in the percentage of government-employed agricultural scientists. Research administrators interviewed by the committee sug- gested that there would be some change in the skills required of
FUTURE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS 51 government-employed scientists, at least in fields such as molecu- lar biology and animal genetics. These fields are among those in which biotechnology is changing research techniques and opening up new lines of inquiry (NRC, 1987). The federal government is emphasizing basic science in its laboratories. This is partially be- cause of the expectation that the private sector will pursue applied research and technology development for commercial uses. Regulatory agencies, patent offices, and the judicial system will probably offer some new opportunities for Ph.D. scientists. These public sector scientists will research or analyze regulation and licensing, environmental protection, food safety and quality, ecology, wildlife and forest management, and related policy ar- eas. The committee expects these opportunities to occur because of the complexity of agricultural issues and the growing propor- tion of Ph.D.s working in other sectors that provide data to the government.
