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Eileen R. Choffnes and Alison Mack, Rapporteurs Forum on Microbial Threats Board on Global Health
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESSâ 500 Fifth Street, NWâ Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The workshop that is the subject of this workshop summary was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Financial support for this activity was provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Food and Drug Administration, and the Fogarty International Center; U.S. Department of Defense: Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, and Medical Research and Materiel Command; U.S. Department of Justice: Federal Bureau of Investigation; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; U.S. De- partment of Homeland Security; U.S. Agency for International Development; Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; American Society for Microbiology; Burroughs Wellcome Fund; GlaxoSmithKline; Infectious Diseases So- ciety of America; Johnson & Johnson; Merck Company Foundation; and sanofi pasteur. The views presented in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the organiza- tions or agencies that provided support for this activity. International Standard Book Number-13:â 978-0-309-30499-3 International Standard Book Number-10:â 0-309-30499-7 Additional copies of this workshop summary are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. For more information about the Institute of Medicine, visit the IOM home page at: www. iom.edu. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America The serpent has been a symbol of long life, healing, and knowledge among almost all cultures and religions since the beginning of recorded history. The serpent adopted as a logotype by the Institute of Medicine is a relief carving from ancient Greece, now held by the Staatliche Museen in Berlin. Cover images:Map of global sea temperatures as measured by Japan National Space Development Agency (NASDA), courtesy of NASDA/NASA; Map of vegetation and snow cover courtesy of NASAâs Earth Observatory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Emerging and re-emerging disease location data adapted from Morens et al., 2008. Emerg- ing infections: A perpetual challenge. Lancet Infectious Diseases 8:710â719. Suggested citation: IOM (Institute of Medicine). 2014. The influence of global environ- mental change on infectious disease dynamics. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
âKnowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.â âGoethe Advising the Nation. Improving Health.
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PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR A WORKSHOP ON THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ON INFECTIOUS DISEASE DYNAMICS1 MARTIN CETRON, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia PETER DASZAK, EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York ANDREW DOBSON, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey JAMES M. HUGHES, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia LONNIE KING, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio JONATHAN PATZ, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin MARY WILSON, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 1ââInstitute of Medicine planning committees are solely responsible for organizing the workshop, identifying topics, and choosing speakers. The responsibility for the published workshop summary rests solely with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution. v
FORUM ON MICROBIAL THREATS1 DAVID A. RELMAN (Chair), Stanford University, and Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, California JAMES M. HUGHES (Vice-Chair), Global Infectious Diseases Program, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia LONNIE J. KING (Vice-Chair), Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio KEVIN ANDERSON, Chemical and Biological Defense Division, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC ENRIQUETA C. BOND, Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Emeritus), QE Philanthropic Advisors, Marshall, Virginia ROGER G. BREEZE, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California JOHN E. BURRIS,2 Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina ARTURO CASADEVALL, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York ANDREW CLEMENTS, U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC PETER DASZAK, EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York JEFFREY S. DUCHIN, Public HealthâSeattle and King County, Seattle, Washington JONATHAN EISEN, Genome Center, University of California, Davis, California MARK B. FEINBERG, Merck Vaccine Division, Merck & Co., Inc., West Point, Pennsylvania JACQUELINE FLETCHER, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma CLAIRE FRASER, Institute for Genome Sciences, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland JESSE L. GOODMAN,3 Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland EDUARDO GOTUZZO, Instituto de Medicina TropicalâAlexander von Humboldt, Universidad PeruaÃ±a Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru CAROLE A. HEILMAN, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland DAVID L. HEYMANN, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom 1ââInstitute of Medicine forums and roundtables do not issue, review, or approve individual docu- ments. The responsibility for the published workshop summary rests with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution. 2ââForum member until October 18, 2013. 3ââForum member until February 28, 2014. vi
ZHI HONG,4 GlaxoSmithKline, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina PHILIP HOSBACH, sanofi pasteur, Swiftwater, Pennsylvania STEPHEN ALBERT JOHNSTON, Arizona BioDesign Institute, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona KENT KESTER,5 Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland GERALD T. KEUSCH, Boston University School of Medicine and Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts RIMA F. KHABBAZ, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia MARK KORTEPETER,6 Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland STANLEY M. LEMON, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina MARGARET McFALL-NGAI, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin EDWARD McSWEEGAN, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland PAULA J. OLSIEWSKI, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York, New York STEPHEN OSTROFF,7 Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland JULIE PAVLIN, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Silver Spring, Maryland GEORGE POSTE, Complex Adaptive Systems Initiative, Arizona State University, SkySong, Scottsdale, Arizona DAVID RIZZO, Department of Plant Pathology, University of California, Davis GARY A. ROSELLE, Department of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration, Cincinnati, Ohio KEVIN RUSSELL, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Silver Spring, Maryland JANET SHOEMAKER, American Society for Microbiology, Washington, DC JAY P. SIEGEL,8 Johnson & Johnson, Radnor, Pennsylvania P. FREDERICK SPARLING, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina MARY E. WILSON, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts EDWARD H. YOU, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Washington, DC 4ââForum member until October 18, 2013. 5ââRetired as of December 31, 2013. 6ââForum member since January 1, 2014. 7ââForum member since March 1, 2014. 8ââForum member since January 15, 2014. vii
IOM Staff EILEEN CHOFFNES, Scholar and Director KATHERINE McCLURE, Associate Program Officer REBEKAH HUTTON, Research Associate CHARLEE ALEXANDER,9 Senior Program Assistant PRIYANKA NALAMADA,10 Senior Program Assistant JOANNA ROBERTS,11 Senior Program Associate (Temp) 9ââStaff member until November 15, 2013. 10ââStaff member since March 1, 2014. 11ââStaff member until March 31, 2014. viii
BOARD ON GLOBAL HEALTH1 RICHARD GUERRANT (Chair), Thomas H. Hunter Professor of International Medicine and Director, Center for Global Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia JO IVEY BOUFFORD (IOM Foreign Secretary), President, New York Academy of Medicine, New York, New York CLAIRE V. BROOME, Adjunct Professor, Division of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia JACQUELYN C. CAMPBELL, Anna D. Wolf Chair, and Professor, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing, Baltimore, Maryland THOMAS J. COATES, Michael and Sue Steinberg Professor of Global AIDS, Research Co-Director, UC Global Health Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California GARY DARMSTADT, Director, Family Health Division, Global Health Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington VALENTIN FUSTER, Director, Wiener Cardiovascular Institute Kravis Cardiovascular Health Center Professor, Cardiology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, New York JACOB A. GAYLE, Vice President, Community Affairs, Executive Director, Medtronic Foundation, Minneapolis, Minnesota GLENDA E. GRAY, Executive Director, Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, University of the Witwatersrand, Diepkloof, South Africa STEPHEN W. HARGARTEN, Professor and Chair, Emergency Medicine, Director, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin JAMES HOSPEDALES, Coordinator, Chronic Disease Project, Health Surveillance and Disease Management Area, Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization, Washington, DC PETER J. HOTEZ, Professor and Chair, Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Tropical Medicine, The George Washington University, Washington, DC CLARION JOHNSON, Global Medical Director, Medicine and Occupational Medicine Department, ExxonMobil, Fairfax, Virginia FITZHUGH MULLAN, Professor, Department of Health Policy, The George Washington University, Washington, DC OLUFUNMILAYO F. OLOPADE, Walter L. Palmer Distinguished Service Professor of Medicine, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 1ââInstitute of Medicine boards do not review or approve individual workshop summaries. The responsibility for the content of the workshop summary rests with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution. ix
GUY PALMER, Regents Professor of Pathology and Infectious Diseases, Director of the School for Global Animal Health, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington THOMAS C. QUINN, Associate Director for International Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Professor of Medicine, International Health, Epidemiology, and Molecular Biology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland JENNIFER PRAH RUGER, Associate Professor, Division of Health Policy and Administration, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut IOM Staff PATRICK KELLEY, Director ANGELA CHRISTIAN, Program Associate x
Reviewers This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Councilâs Report Review Com- mittee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and criti- cal comments that will assist the institution in making its published workshop summary as sound as possible and to ensure that the workshop summary meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this workshop summary: Enriqueta Bond, Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Emeritus), QE Philanthropic Advisors, Marshall, Virginia James M. Hughes, Global Infectious Diseases Program, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia Rima F. Khabbaz, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia Dirk Pfeiffer, The Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, United Kingdom P. Frederick Sparling, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this workshop summary was overseen by Melvin Worth. Appointed by the Institute of Medicine, he was responsible for making xi
xii REVIEWERS certain that an independent examination of this workshop summary was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this workshop summary rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the institution.
Acknowledgments The Forum on Emerging Infections was created by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) in 1996 in response to a request from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The purpose of the Forum is to provide structured opportunities for leaders from govern- ment, academia, and industry to regularly meet and examine issues of shared concern regarding research, prevention, detection, and management of emerg- ing, reemerging, and novel infectious diseases in humans, plants, and animals. In pursuing this task, the Forum provides a venue to foster the exchange of information and ideas, identify areas in need of greater attention, clarify policy issues by enhancing knowledge and identifying points of agreement, and inform decision makers about science and policy issues. The Forum seeks to illuminate issues rather than resolve them. For this reason, it does not provide advice or recommendations on any specific policy initiative pending before any agency or organization. Its value derives instead from the diversity of its membership and from the contributions that individual members make throughout the activities of the Forum. In September 2003, the Forum changed its name to the Forum on Microbial Threats. The Forum on Microbial Threats, and the IOM, wish to express their sincere appreciation to the individuals and organizations who contributed their valuable time to provide information and advice to the Forum. Their participation in the planning and execution of this workshop made it greater than the sum of its parts. A full list of presenters, and their biographical information, may be found in Ap- pendixes B and E, respectively. xiii
xiv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Forum gratefully acknowledges the contributions of the members of the planning committee1: Martin Cetron (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), Peter Daszak (EcoHealth Alliance), Andrew Dobson (Princeton University), James M. Hughes (Emory University), Lonnie King (Ohio State University), Jonathan Patz (University of Wisconsin, Madison), and Mary Wilson (Harvard University). The Forum is also indebted to the IOM staff who tirelessly contributed throughout the planning and execution of the workshop and the production of this workshop summary report. On behalf of the Forum, we unreservedly acknowledge these efforts led by Dr. Eileen Choffnes, Scholar and Director of the Forum; Katherine McClure, Associate Program Officer; Rebekah Hutton, Research Associate; Charlee Alexander,2 Senior Program Associate; Priyanka Nalamada,3 Senior Program Assistant; and Joanna Roberts,4 Senior Program As- sistant (Temp). Without the contributions and dedication of the staff to the work of the Forum in developing this workshopâs agenda and for their thoughtful and insightful approach and skill in planning for the workshop and in translating the workshopâs proceedings and discussion into this workshop summary report, this report would not have been possible. We would also like to thank the follow- ing IOM staff and consultants for their invaluable contributions to this activity: Daniel Bethea, Laura Harbold DeStefano, Chelsea Frakes, Greta Gorman, Alison Mack, and Julie Wiltshire. Finally, the Forum wishes to recognize the sponsors that supported this activity. Financial support for this activity was provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Preven- tion, Food and Drug Administration, and the Fogarty International Center; U.S. Department of Defense: Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, and Medical Research and Materiel Command; U.S. Department of Justice: Federal Bureau of Investigation; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; U.S. Department of Home- land Security; U.S. Agency for International Development; Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; American Society for Microbiology; Burroughs Wellcome Fund;5 GlaxoSmithKline;6 Infectious Diseases Society of America; Johnson & Johnson; Merck Company Foundation; and sanofi pasteur. The views presented in this workshop summary are those of the workshop participants and have been summarized by the rapporteurs. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the Forum on Microbial Threats, its spon- sors, or the IOM. 1ââInstitute of Medicine planning committees are solely responsible for organizing the workshop, identifying topics, and choosing speakers. The responsibility for the published workshop summary rests solely with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution. 2ââStaff member until November 15, 2013. 3ââStaff member since March 1, 2014. 4ââStaff member until March 31, 2014. 5ââSponsor until October 18, 2013. 6ââSponsor until October 18, 2013.
Contents Workshop Overview 1 Workshop Overview References, 100 Appendixes A Contributed Manuscripts, 111 A1 Animal Migration and Infectious Disease Risk, 111 Sonia Altizer, Rebecca Bartel, and Barbara A. Han A2 Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework, 129 Sonia Altizer, Richard S. Ostfeld, Pieter T. J. Johnson, Susan Kutz, and C. Drew Harvell A3 Migration, Civil Conflict, Mass Gathering Events, and Disease, 146 Chris Beyrer and James Wren Tracy A4 The Importance of Movement in Environmental Change and Infectious Disease, 154 Nina Bharti A5 Toward a County-Level Map of Tuberculosis Rates in the U.S., 165 David Scales, John S. Brownstein, Kamran Khan, and Martin S. Cetron A6 Assessing the Origin of and Potential for International Spread of Chikungunya Virus from the Caribbean, 170 Kamran Khan, Isaac Bogoch, John S. Brownstein, Jennifer Miniota, Adrian Nicolucci, Wei Hu, Elaine O. Nsoesie, Martin Cetron, Maria Isabella Creatore, Matthew German, and Annelies Wilder-Smith xv
xvi CONTENTS A7 Eight Critical Questions for Pandemic Prediction, 182 Toph Allen, Kris Murray, Kevin J. Olival, and Peter Daszak A8 Misconceptions and Emerging Pathogens: What Can Mathematical Models Tell Us?, 193 Andrew Dobson A9 Environmental Change and Infectious Disease: How New Roads Affect the Transmission of Diarrheal Pathogens in Rural Ecuador, 213 Joseph N. S. Eisenberg, William Cevallos, Karina Ponce, Karen Levy, Sarah J. Bates, James C. Scott, Alan Hubbard, Nadia Vieira, Pablo Endara, Mauricio Espinel, Gabriel Trueba, Lee W. Riley, and James Trostle A10 In-Roads to the Spread of Antibiotic Resistance: Regional Patterns of Microbial Transmission in Northern Coastal Ecuador, 230 Joseph N. S. Eisenberg, Jason Goldstick, William Cevallos, Gabriel Trueba, Karen Levy, James Scott, Bethany Percha, Rosana Segovia, Karina Ponce, Alan Hubbard, Carl Marrs, Betsy Foxman, David L. Smith, and James Trostle A11 Social Connectedness Can Inhibit Disease Transmission: Social Organization, Cohesion, Village Context, and Infection Risk in Rural Ecuador, 251 Jonathan L. Zelner, James Trostle, Jason E. Goldstick, William Cevallos, James S. House, and Joseph N. S. Eisenberg A12 Climate, Wind Storms, and the Risk of Valley Fever (Coccidioidomycosis), 266 Heidi E. Brown, Andrew C. Comrie, James Tamerius, Mohammed Khan, Joseph A. Tabor, and John N. Galgiani A13 Zoonotic Disease Risks Associated with Trade and Movement of Animals, 282 Nina Marano, Adam J. Langer, G. Gale Galland, Nicole J. Cohen, Emily Lankau, Ashley Marrone, David McAdam, Casey Barton Behravesh, and Nicki Pesik A14 The Global Distribution and Burden of Dengue, 297 Samir Bhatt, Peter W. Gething, Oliver J. Brady, Jane P. Messina, Andrew W. Farlow, Catherine L. Moyes, John M. Drake, John S. Brownstein, Anne G. Hoen, Osman Sankoh, Monica F. Myers, Dylan B. George, Thomas Jaenisch, G. R. William Wint, Cameron P. Simmons, Thomas W. Scott, Jeremy J. Farrar, and Simon I. Hay A15 Circumpolar Populations, Climate and Environmental Change, and the Impact on Infectious Disease Patterns, 310 Alan J. Parkinson
CONTENTS xvii A16 Climate Change and Human Health: A One Health Approach, 328 Jonathan A. Patz and Micah B. Hahn A17 Impacts of Climate Change on Plant Diseases: New Scenarios for the Future, 359 Marco Pautasso and Michal J. Jeger A18 Water Quality and Health for a Sustainable Society, 375 Joan B. Rose, Georgia Mavrommati, and Erin A. Dreelin B Agenda 391 C Acronyms 395 D Glossary 399 E Speaker Biographies 411
Tables, Figures, and Boxes TABLES WO-1 Planetary Boundaries, 9 WO-2 Infectious Diseases Influenced by Urbanization and Urban Poverty, 41 WO-3 Top 15 Source Countries with Largest Populations in the United States as Percent of Foreign Born, 2008, 94 A5-1 Comparison of Average Annual TB Rates of U.S. Counties and Regions by Urban (Rural/Micropolitan/Metropolitan) Classification, 2006â2010, 167 A6-1 Leading Destination Countries for Travelers Departing Chikungunya Indigenous Areas of the Caribbean, 174 A9-1 Community Characteristics, 217 A9-2 Number of Cases and Controls by Remoteness, 218 A9-3 Crude Infection Prevalence by Case Status and Remoteness, 219 A9-4 Comparison of Infection Prevalence in Communities vs. BorbÃ³n, 220 A9-5 Infection as a Function of Remoteness, 220 A10-1 Estimated Prevalence, Weighted by the Inverse Sampling Probability, of Antibiotic-Resistant E. coli Profiles, 241 A10-2 Prevalence and Odds Ratio of Simultaneous Antibiotic Resistance to amp and sxt Among Participants Living in 21 Villages in Ecuador, 242 xix
xx TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES A11-1 Descriptive Characteristics of Villages, 258 A11-2 Multivariate Models for Risk of Disease in Previous Week, 259 A11-3 Indirect Effects of Remoteness and Village-Level Average Degree on Risk of Illness, 261 A13-1 Importations of Rabid Dogs to the Continental United States, 2004â 2008, 284 A14-1 Estimated Burden of Dengue in 2010, by Continent, 302 A16-1 Projected Earth System Changes, 334 A16-2 Selected Examples of Climatic Factors Influencing the Transmission and Distribution of Vector-Borne Diseases, 340 FIGURES WO-1 The increasing rates of change in human activity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, 5 WO-2 Global scale changes in the Earth system as a result of the dramatic increase in human activity, 7 WO-3 Beyond the boundary, 8 WO-4 The epidemiological triad, 14 WO-5 Patterns of change in land cover due to land use and climate change by 2100, 22 WO-6 These two figures illustrate computer realizations of the network structure of (a) the fauna and (vertebrate) fauna of Yellowstone National Park (Barmore, 2003; Frank and McNaughton, 1992) and the (b) vertebrate immune system (based on Cox and Liew, 1992), 27 WO-7 Travel over four male generations of the same family, 30 WO-8 They come arm in armâAmerican seaports must close their gates to all three, 32 WO-9 Selected dispersal events of fungal pathogens, 36 WO-10 Global change impacts on plant health, 37 WO-11 World urban and rural population for developed and developing regions (percent of total), 40 WO-12 Causal loop diagram illustrating the relationship between climate change, international and national governance, and conflict in Myanmar in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, 45 WO-13 Coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework, 48 WO-14 Causal loop diagram representing two pathways, 50 WO-15 Causal diagram linking proximity of the road to increases in infection and diarrheal disease, 51
TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES xxi WO-16 Postulated conceptual model: Effects of social relationships on disease outcomes, Esmeraldas, Ecuador, 2007, 54 WO-17 ecological perspective, 55 An WO-18 Major taxonomic groups of pathogens causing plant emerging infectious diseases, 60 WO-19 Coffee rust and climate change, 61 WO-20 Example of the spatially explicit simulation model of P. ramorum dispersal in England and Wales, 65 WO-21 Four basic scenarios for the further development of ash dieback in Europe, based on levels of pathogen dispersal and host susceptibility, 66 WO-22 Pathogen responses to climate change depend on thermal tolerance relative to current and projected conditions across an annual cycle, 68 WO-23 Modeled versus observed AugustâMarch (1995â2013) cocci exposure in Maricopa County, Arizona, 69 WO-24 A schematic of the disease classification process, 72 WO-25 Infectious disease global risk modeling framework, 73 WO-26 Emergence of pandemic zoonotic disease, 78 WO-27 Global emerging disease âhot spots,â 80 WO-28 Global vulnerability from (A) zoonotic EIDS and (B) vector-borne EIDS, 81 WO-29 Protective skirts for palm sap collection, 85 WO-30 More than 60,000 children were vaccinated against measles and polio in the Zaâatari refugee camp in Jordan during a coordinated and targeted campaign in April 2013, 95 WO-31 Final destinations of air travelers departing Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates from June to November 2012 and origins of foreign Hajj pilgrims by World Bank income classification, 100 A1-1 Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), shown here at a wintering site in central Mexico, undertake one of the longest distance two-way migrations of any insect species worldwide, 112 A1-2 Representative migratory species, including migration distances and routes, known parasites and pathogens, and major threats to species persistence, 113 A1-3 Points along a general annual migratory cycle where key processes can increase or decrease pathogen exposure or transmission, 115 A1-4 compartmental model illustrating infectious disease dynamics (S-I A model) in a migratory host population moving between geographically distinct breeding and overwintering habitats, 125
xxii TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES A2-1 Animalâparasite interactions for which field or experimental studies have linked climate change to altered disease risk, 130 A2-2 Rising interest in climateâdisease interactions, 132 A2-3 Theoretical underpinnings and categorization of disease responses to climate change, 134 A3-1 Causal loop diagram of Cyclone Nargis, 151 A3-2 Bibliometric analysis of HIV publications, Democratic Republic of Congo, 1982â2004, 152 A3-3 Malaria studies initiated, Democratic Republic of Congo, 1980â2004, 153 A4-1 Measles transmission rates and brightness for three cities in Niger, 159 A4-2 Measles and brightness in the communes of Niamey, 160 A5-1 Average annual tuberculosis rate per 100,000 population, 2006â2010, by county tuberculosis data from publicly available sources, 168 A6-1 Volume of travelers from chikungunya indigenous areas of the Caribbean to the United States and Canada in May, 177 A6-2 Volume of travelers from chikungunya indigenous areas of the Caribbean to the United States and Canada in June, 178 A6-3 Volume of travelers from chikungunya indigenous areas of the Caribbean to the United States and Canada in July, 179 A7-1 Map of relative risk of a zoonotic disease of wildlife origin emerging in people, 185 A8-1 The expected persistence time of a pathogen that infects its hosts for 2 weeks and is infectious for the second of those weeks in populations of different sizes, 197 A8-2 Deterministic prediction of the parameter ranges where epidemic enhancement may be observed, 198 A8-3 Parameter estimates, 200 A8-4 Geographic patterns and projected impact of environmental change, 203 A8-5 Environmental change, avian biogeography, and loss in range size, 204 A9-1 Map of study region, 216 A9-2 Causal diagram linking proximity of the road to increases in infection and diarrheal disease, 221 A9-3 Relationship between social factors and remoteness, 222
TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES xxiii A10-1 Map of study region, 233 A10-2 Deterministic antibiotic resistance model, 239 A10-3 The risk ratio of AR prevalence comparing a non-remote village (close) with a remote village (far) as a function of the ratio of transmission rates for close versus far villages, 244 A11-1 Postulated conceptual model, 252 A12-1 Coccidioidomycosis, 268 A12-2 Annual coccidioidomycosis, 269 A12-3 Dust storms have little effect on Arizona case rates, 272 A12-4 How dust storm contribution on spore density could be minimal, 273 A12-5 Model results, 275 A12-6 Hindcasting estimates, 276 A14-1 Global estimates of total dengue infections, 300 A14-2 Global evidence consensus, risk and burden of dengue in 2010, 301 A15-1 Global temperature anomalies for 2000â2009 compared to 1951â1980, 312 A15-2 Climate-related outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis, Alaska 2004, 320 A15-3 Climate-related outbreak of Puumula virus infection in Sweden 2007, 321 A15-4 International circumpolar surveillance of emerging infectious diseases, 324 A16-1 Components of radiative forcing, 330 A16-2 Temperature changes due to natural and anthropogenic forcings, 331 A16-3 Potential health impacts of climate variability and change, 336 A16-4 Levels of E. coli in the Milwaukee Estuary and rain events in channels leading to Lake Michigan with and without combined sewer overflow (CSO) systems, 337 A16-5 Daily time series between Jan 1, 1993, and Nov 15, 1998, for admissions for diarrhoea, mean ambient temperature and relative humidity in Lima, Peru, 338 A16-6 Locations at which systematic long-term studies meet stringent criteria documenting recent temperature-related regional climate change impacts on physical and biological systems, 339 A16-7 Precipitation and land cover interactions on malaria risk in the Amazon Basin, 343
xxiv TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES A16-8 Explanation of seasonal changes in hantavirus prevalence, rodent host population density, and population age structure due to delayed- density-dependent prevalence, 345 A16-9 Climate-changeâinduced reproductive mistiming in Dutch great tits, 349 A16-10 The relationship between winter sea ice extent and summer krill density, 351 A17-1 Number of publications retrieved in (a) Web of Science and (b) Google Scholar using the keyword human disease relative to the number of publications retrieved using the keyword human health, and for plant disease in comparison with plant health, 361 A17-2 New scenarios of climate change impacts on plant health will need to take into account the likely introductions of exotic plant pathogens due to increased plant trade, as well as human responses to both climate change (e.g., large-scale cultivation of biofuels) and exotic plant pathogens, 364 A18-1 Exposure pathways in the human-water coupled system, 377 A18-2 Outbreaks in drinking water in the United States, 378 A18-3 Outbreaks in ambient recreational water per year in the United States, 379 A18-4 causal loop diagram that represents coupled socioeconomic and A biophysical systems in Lake St. Clair, 382 A18-5 causal loop diagram that represents a reinforcing feedback loop A (symbolized with R) and a counteractive feedback loop (symbolized with C), 383 A18-6 Comparative assessments of ID50 or LD50, 385 BOXES WO-1 Medical Tourism and Infectious Disease, 31 WO-2 CDC Regulatory Authority for Importation of Animals and Animal Products, 34 WO-3 Lessons from a Model System: Monarch Migration Drives Large- Scale Variation in Parasite Prevalence, 58 WO-4 What Can BioMosaic Do?, 98 A1-1 Lessons from a Model System: Monarch Migration Drives Large- Scale Variation in Parasite Prevalence, 120