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REFERENCE COPY FOR LIBRARY USE ONtY Workshop on Systems Analysis Summary Report Jakarta, Indonesia February 8-12,1983 Jointly sponsored by Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) Government of the Republic of Indonesia and Board on Science and Technology for International Development Office of International Affairs National Research Council United States of America NAS-NAE 31384 NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1984 LIBRARY
M NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. These proceedings have been prepared by the Board on Science and Technology for International Development, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council, for the Mission to Indonesia, U.S. Agency for International Development, under Contract AID 497-79-100-23. Copies available from: Board on Science and Technology for International Development National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 USA Residents of Indonesia should request copies directly from: National Science Documentation Center (PDIN) Indonesian Institute of Sciences Jalan Jenderal Gatat Subroto P.O. Box 3056/JKT Jakarta, Indonesia
PREFACE In 1982, Indonesia's Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) invited the Board on Science and Technology for International Development (BOSTID) of the National Research Council (NRC) to join it in sponsoring a workshop on systems analysis (S/A). Held in Jakarta, Indonesia, February 8-12, 1983, this workshop explored the use of systems analysis as a tool for attaining development goals. The BPPT recently introduced this methodology as a significant interdisciplinary team activity within its organization with the purpose of integrating research and technology more effectively within the Indonesian economy. BOSTID addressed this subject in 1976 with its publication of Systems Analysis and Operations Research; A Tool for Policy and Program Planning for Development. Systems analysis is a methodology that, when properly undertaken, permits policy decisions to be informed and based on the relative merits of alternative courses of action within complex areas of the Indonesian government's infrastructure. This methodology can also be used to reinforce the development of REPELITA IV, Indonesia's fourth 5-year plan (1984-89), and master plans for implementing the courses of action chosen. Particular attention was given in the workshop to illustrative studies focusing on Indonesian concerns with solid waste management, urban transportation, and the food system. Addressing these concerns were scientists, engineers, development specialists, administrators, and educators. These discussions were one activity in a larger program of cooperation between BOSTID and the Indonesian government. Begun in 1968, this program has featured a series of workshops on food policy, industrial and technological research, natural resources, rural productivity, and manpower planning. BOSTID's participation was supported in the context of a science and technology loan from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to the government of Indonesia. The project with BOSTID calls for two or three activities (panel discussions, workshops, seminars, or small advisory groups) to be organized each year. 111
ORGANIZATION OF THE WORKSHOP BPPT organized the workshop to explore the overall applications of systems analysis as a tool in attaining development goals, focusing particularly on three studies being undertaken by BPPT: solid waste management, urban transportation, and the Indonesian food system. Dr. David B. Hertz, director of the Intelligent Computer Systems Research Institute, University of Miami, and member of the panel for the 1976 BOSTID systems analysis report, chaired the NRC panel. Other panel members, who were chosen for their experience in the specific problem areas, were: Abraham Michaels, consulting engineer, Osterville, Massachusetts (solid waste management); Professor Britton Harris, School of Public and Urban Policy, University of Pennsylvania (urban transportation); and Dr. Walter L. Fishel, assistant director, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, Ohio State University (food systems). The chairman of the Indonesian workshop organizing committee, Ir. Suleman Wiriadidjaja (BPPT deputy chairman for systems analyses), convened the workshop in plenary session on the morning of February 8 (see Appendix A). At the opening session, Dr. B. J. Habibie, minister of state for research and technology and chairman of BPPT, addressed the participants and stressed the need for further development of systems analysis in Indonesia (see Appendix A for opening remarks by Dr. Habibie and Dr. Hertz). Professor M. T. Zen for BPPT and Dr. Hertz also delivered lectures at this session on S/A approaches and needs for developing countries. Subsequently, the participants broke into three working groups, each addressing a different problem area (see Appendix B for the workshop agenda and Appendix C for a list of participants). Study team leaders in the three areas outlined their methodology and efforts, and the NRC panelists led discussions based on papers they had prepared on the utilization of systems analysis in those areas. The following two days, NRC panelists accompanied small groups of the Indonesian study teams on field visits. The solid waste management group visited a composting plant, the solid waste improvement program pilot project, and the open dumping and sanitary landfill in Jakarta, and the composting plant and waste disposal equipment center in Surabaya. The urban transportation group visits included the Jakarta area and the Tool Road and Sidoarjo Corridor in Surabaya. The food system group concentrated on site visits in the Yogyakarta region, including rice producers, cooperatives, and distribution centers. These visits allowed firsthand observation and discussions at field sites and intensive interaction with Indonesian study members. To address some of the general principles of systems analysis and their applications to problem solving, Dr. Hertz gave an informal lecture at BPPT upon the return of the waste management and transporta- tion groups the morning of February 11 (see Appendix D). In the after- noon, following the return of the food system group, working group sessions were continued at BPPT to formulate recommendations. These were drafted by the NRC panelists on behalf of the working groups and were presented at the final plenary session at BPPT the morning of February 12. iv
Part I of this report includes the presentations made at the opening plenary session of the workshop; Part II, Indonesian studies of the three problem areas of solid waste management, urban transpor- tation, and food systems which formed the basis for the working group discussions and comments by the NRC panelists; and Part III, the obser- vations and recommendations of workshop participants on the application of systems analysis to the three problem areas. This workshop report was prepared by Augustus Nasmith, Jr., of the BOSTID staff using the papers written by the Indonesian and NRC workshop participants. The papers have been edited to eliminate duplication, but they accurately reflect the discussions. The final draft was reviewed and approved by the members of the NRC panel and the Indonesian steering committee. Sabra Bissette Ledent, BOSTID consultant, edited the report. Participants would like to acknowledge the valuable contribution of the workshop's organizing committee to the final arrangements for the workshop as well as the site visits to Surabaya and Yogyakarta. The organizing committee was chaired by Ir. Suleman Wiriadidjaja, deputy chairman for systems analyses, BPPT, and cochaired by Ir. Wardiman Djojonegoro, deputy chairman for administration. Dr. Untung Iskandar, leader, Basic Human Needs Project, BPPT, was coordinator. Organizing committee members included: Drs. Ansorudin, Dra. Habsari Kuspurwahati, Ir. Hariadi Wardi, Ir. Henky Sutanto, Ir. Jajang Hasyin, Drs. Komarudin, Drs. Lukman Sukarma, Ir. Soedarmodjo. INTRODUCTORY NOTE: SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, AN APPLIED RESEARCH PROCESS David B. Hertz Chairman, NRC Panel Policy decisions and specific plans related to transport, food, waste disposal and sanitation, industry, export, and tourism, among other key systems, are in the long run improved by the application of S/A techniques. Systems analysis is an applied research process that includes the following key elements: 1. Statement of the problem. Systems analysis begins with a statement of the problems to be tackled, such as those presented to the NRC panel concerning solid waste disposal, urban transportation, and the food system in Indonesia. 2. The objectives of an S/A study must be outlined at the outset as well as the measures of performance used to determine whether the results of S/A recommendations would in fact improve the system outputs. These objectives may be modified as the study proceeds. 3. The structure or pattern of behavior of the system under study must be analyzed through the collection of data and information and by examining how the variables interact. This step provides the basis for the systems model or models. 4. The variablesâelements of the systemâmust be identified and the general outlines of the system sketched out. The scope or boundaries of the system to be analyzed must be clearly understood by the analysts and policymakers.
5. The constraints on variables and performance, minimum or maximum, and the availability of resources establish the framework within which systems analysis is carried out. 6. The criteria used to evaluate the performance measures must be agreed on by the S/A team, in cooperation and coordination with the policymakers and agency leaders who have provided the statement of the problem. These criteria should be determined in conjunction with the decision makers prior to the study since they will directly affect the S/A study design. 7. The concept of trade-offs follows directly from the criteria applied to the performance measures. Two or more such criteria may be opposed to one another in the decision process and must be balanced in arriving at final conclusions. 8. Assumptions about the process, variables, objectives, and constraints must be spelled out explicitly if the results of the systems analysis are to be effective in the long term. Because the world constantly changes, assumptions that held at one time may no longer be valid in the future. Thus they must not be buried where they cannot be continually examined and realistically appraised and adjusted. 9. Hypotheses as to system relationships must be developed using assumptions, data, information, performance measures, and analytical methods. These hypotheses can be formulated from theoretical methods and algorithms, computer programs, and practical applications used and reported in the operations research/management science/systems analysis literature throughout the world, including the developing countries. From the analyses and hypotheses, a model or models to test the alter- native courses of action evolve. The time span that the alternatives cover must be spelled out in terms of the statement of the problem and the objectives. 10. Real and simulated tests of the systems models and data analysis are then necessary to evaluate the analysts' approaches to the problem under study. The best alternatives will be those that are stable and resilient. 11. Recommendations to the policymakers, citing reasons for the choices suggested, show the visual outcomes of these studies. Because many will have multiple and nonquantifiable measures and objectives, trade-offs, requiring subjective judgments as to appropriate decisions, will be necessary. These, of course, will be modified by the final decision makers, giving consideration to policy issues that may not or could not have been included in the analysis. 12. Finally, it is incumbent upon the systems analysts to suggest plans for implementing any alternative suggested and controlling the decision's implementation. This report seeks to demonstrate each of these steps as they are applied to the specific areas of the NRC panel's work with BPPT staff in Indonesia, both during and after its visit. VI
CONTENTS PART I OPENING PRESENTATIONS 1 A Systems Approach to Development Planning Processes 3 M. T. Zen Deputy Chairman for Natural Resource Development Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) Systems Analysis, Companion to Economic Development 7 David B. Hertz Chairman, National Research Council Panel PART II INDONESIAN PRESENTATIONS, WITH COMMENTS BY NRC PANELISTS 11 Preliminary Study of a Waste Disposal 13 System for Central Jakarta Team for the Solid Waste Management Study, BPPT Systems Analysis and Solid Waste Management Planning 33 Abraham Michaels, NRC Panelist Public Transport in the Eastern Corridor of Jakarta 35 Transportation System Study Group, BPPT Systems Analysis and a Study of Urban Transportation 55 Problems Britton Harris, NRC Panelist Toward a Conceptual Food System Flow Model for Rice in 63 Indonesia Bambang Setiadi, BPPT Systems Analysis and a Study of the Indonesian 71 Food System Walter L. Fishel, NRC Panelist vii
