SEA CHANGE
2015-2025
Decadal Survey
of Ocean Sciences
Committee on Guidance for NSF on National Ocean Science Research Priorities: Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences
Ocean Studies Board
Division of Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Funding for this study was provided by the National Science Foundation under grant number OCE-1341319. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-36688-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-36688-7
Library of Congress Control Number: 2015937043
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COMMITTEE ON GUIDANCE FOR NSF ON NATIONAL OCEAN SCIENCE RESEARCH PRIORITIES: DECADAL SURVEY FOR OCEAN SCIENCES
Shirley A. Pomponi, Co-Chair, Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute-Florida Atlantic University, Fort Pierce
David W. Titley, Co-Chair, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Edward Boyle, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
Melbourne Briscoe, OceanGeeks, LLC, Alexandria, Virginia
Russ E. Davis, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
Margo Edwards, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Mary (Missy) H. Feeley, ExxonMobil Exploration Company (retired), Houston, Texas
Donald Forsyth, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
Peter Liss, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom, and Texas A&M University, College Station
Susan Lozier, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
Roberta Marinelli, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
James J. McCarthy, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Alan Mix, Oregon State University, Corvallis
Steven A. Murawski, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
Robert T. Paine, University of Washington, Seattle
Charles Paull, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California
Don Walsh, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon
Bess B. Ward, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
James A. Yoder, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
William R. Young, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
Ocean Studies Board Staff
Deborah Glickson, Study Director
Susan Roberts, Board Director
Payton Kulina, Senior Program Assistant
Stacee Karras, Research Associate
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
Robert A. Duce, Chair, Texas A&M University, College Station
E. Virginia Armbrust, University of Washington, Seattle
Kevin R. Arrigo, Stanford University, California
Claudia Benitez-Nelson, University of South Carolina, Columbia
Edward A. Boyle, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
Rita R. Colwell, University of Maryland, College Park
Sarah W. Cooksey, State of Delaware, Dover
Cortis K. Cooper, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
Robert Hallberg, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton University, New Jersey
David Halpern, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
Susan E. Humphris, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
Bonnie J. McCay, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
Steven A. Murawski, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
John A. Orcutt, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Oregon State University, Corvallis
Steven E. Ramberg, Penn State Applied Research Lab, Washington, DC
Martin D. Smith, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
Margaret Spring, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California
Don Walsh, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon
Douglas Wartzok, Florida International University, Miami
Lisa D. White, University of California, Berkeley, and San Francisco State University
Staff
Susan Roberts, Board Director
Deborah Glickson, Senior Program Officer
Claudia Mengelt, Senior Program Officer
Stacee Karras, Research Associate
Pamela Lewis, Administrative Coordinator
Shubha Banskota, Financial Associate
Payton Kulina, Senior Program Assistant
Acknowledgments
This report was greatly enhanced by the efforts of those who participated in committee meetings, attended town halls, provided information to the committee, and assisted with successful meetings. The committee would like to acknowledge Art Allen (U.S. Coast Guard), Jon Alberts (University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System), Holly Bamford (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]), Anjuli Bamzai (National Science Foundation [NSF]), Jack Barth (Oregon State University), Jeff Bingham (congressional staff), Paula Bontempi (National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA]), Scott Borg (NSF), Natalie Bruso (University of Hawaii at Manoa), RADM Nevin Carr (retired, U.S. Navy), Charlie Chestnutt (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), Tim Cowles (Ocean Leadership), Beth Curry (University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory), Paul Cutler (NSF), John Delaney (University of Washington), Annette DeSilva (University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System), Tommy Dickey (University of California, Santa Barbara), Paul Digiacomo (NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service), Tom Drake (Office of Naval Research [ONR]), John Farrell (U.S. Arctic Research Commission), Sarah Giddings (Scripps Institution of Oceanography [SIO]), Peter Girguis (Harvard University), Rebecca Green (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management [BOEM]), John Haines (U.S. Geological Survey), Frank Herr (ONR), Susan Humphris (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution [WHOI]), Martin Jeffries (ONR), Walter Johnson (BOEM), Rebecca Lent (Marine Mammal Commission), Naomi Levine (University of Southern California), Eric Lindstrom (NASA), Kim Martini (University of Washington), Kathleen McNeil (NOAA/National Weather Service), Brian Melzian (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), Richard Merrick (NOAA/National Marine Fisheries Service), Allison Miller (Schmidt Ocean Institute), Berrien Moore III (University of Oklahoma), John Orcutt (SIO), Peter Ortner (University of Miami), Leonard Pace (Schmidt Ocean Institute), Jamie Pierson (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science), Al Plueddemann (WHOI), Helmut Portmann (NOAA National Data Buoy Center), David Score (NOAA), Simon Stephenson (NSF), Steven Squyres (Cornell University), Jason Sylvan (University of Southern California), Andrew Thompson (California Institute of Technology), Woody Turner (NASA), Jennifer Wade (NSF), Chuck Wilson (Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative), Carl Wunsch (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Bill Zamer (NSF), and Victor Zykov (Schmidt Ocean Institute).
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:
KEIR BECKER, University of Miami
CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina
PETER BREWER, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
WILLIAM CURRY, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences
KENDRA DALY, University of South Florida
EDWARD DELONG, University of Hawaii at Manoa
ROBERT DETRICK, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology
CHRISTOPHER GARRETT, retired
JACQUELINE GREBMEIER, University of Maryland
STEVEN LOHRENZ, University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth
JAMES MCWILLIAMS, University of California, Los Angeles
TERRY PLANK, Columbia University
MARTIN VISBECK, Kiel University
ROBERT WINOKUR, retired
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by David Karl, University of Hawaii at Manoa, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Michael Kavanaugh, Geosyntec Consultants, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Contents
1 21st-Century Achievements in Ocean Science
The Ocean Component of Climate Variability and Change
Biogeochemical and Ecological Dimensions of a Changing Ocean
Biodiversity, Complexity, and Dynamics of Ocean Ecosystems
The Seafloor Is Geologically, Physically, and Biologically Dynamic
New Technologies Enable Efficient Collection of Global Ocean Data
Collaborations Advance Oceanography Achievements
Analysis of the Scientific Accomplishments
2 Ocean Science Priorities for 2015-2025
Priority Science Questions for 2015-2025
Interdisciplinary Science and Funding within NSF and OCE
Technology Development for the Next Decade
Would a Different Committee Have Chosen Different Priority Science Questions?
The Academic Research Fleet and Icebreakers
Ocean Observatories Initiative
The National Deep Submergence Facility
Other Facilities and Infrastructure
4 The Path Forward: Maintaining Ocean Science in a Constrained Budget Environment
The Impact of Rising Infrastructure Costs on the OCE Budget
A Strategy to Reduce Infrastructure Costs
Achieving an Initial 10% Reduction in Infrastructure Costs
Achieving Additional Cost Reductions
Examples of Possible Cost Reductions
A Committee and Staff Biographies
B Presentations at DSOS Committee Meetings
Boxes, Tables, and Figures
BOXES
1-2 A Decade of Discovery of Marine Life
1-3 Advances in Bathymetric Mapping
1-4 Contributions of Long-Term Monitoring Programs
2-2 Exploration: Key to Paradigm Shifts
4-1 Decadal Planning in Uncertain Budget Environments
TABLES
3-1 Small Facilities and Infrastructure Funded by NSF OCE Core Programs
FIGURES
S-1 NSF investments in core ocean science and infrastructure since 2000, in dollars
1-2 Yearly minimums of Arctic ice volume from 1980 to 2014
1-4 Incidences of dead zones from hypoxic systems in coastal regions
1-5 Shifts in the distribution of marine taxa