Measuring the Risks and
Causes of Premature Death
Summary of Workshops
Holly G. Rhodes, Rapporteur
Committee on Population
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Board on Health Care Services
Institute of Medicine
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL AND
INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. HHSN26300057 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institute on Aging. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Research Council and Institute of Medicine. (2015). Measuring the Risks and Causes of Premature Death: Summary of Workshops. H.G. Rhodes, Rapporteur. Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Board on Health Care Services, Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THE
WORKSHOPS ON MEASURING THE RISKS
AND CAUSES OF PREMATURE DEATH
Eileen M. Crimmins (Cochair), Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California
Linda J. Waite (Cochair), Department of Sociology, University of Chicago
Christine Bachrach, Maryland Population Research Center, University of Maryland
Lisa F. Berkman, Harvard Center for Population and Development, Harvard University
Majid Ezzati, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Christopher J.L. Murray, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Samuel H. Preston, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania
Thomas J. Plewes, Board Director
Kevin Kinsella, Senior Program Officer
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
Robert D. Mare (Chair), Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles
Jere R. Behrman, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
Jason D. Boardman, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado Boulder
Dora L. Costa, Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles
Peter J. Donaldson, Population Council, New York, NY
Vicki A. Freedman, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
Kathleen Mullan Harris, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Mark D. Hayward, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin
Hillard S. Kaplan, Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico
Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Sara S. McLanahan, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing, Princeton University
Emilio A. Parrado, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania
David R. Weir, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
John R. Wilmoth, Population Division/DESA, United Nations
Thomas J. Plewes, Director
Tina M. Latimer, Program Coordinator
BOARD ON HEALTH CARE SERVICES
Gail R. Wilensky (Chair), Project HOPE
Peter B. Bach, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Joseph R. Baker, Medicare Rights Center
Elisabeth Belmont, MaineHealth
Robert A. Berenson, The Urban Institute
David Blumenthal, The Commonwealth Fund
Otis W. Brawley, American Cancer Society
Stuart M. Butler, The Brookings Institution
Jon B. Christianson, School of Public Health, Division of Health Policy & Management, University of Minnesota
Carolyn M. Clancy, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
Jane L. Delgado, National Alliance for Hispanic Health
Jack C. Ebeler, Health Policy Alternatives, Inc.
Robert S. Galvin, Equity Healthcare, The Blackstone Group
Rebekah E. Gee, School of Public Health, Louisiana State University
Charles N. Kahn, III, Federation of American Hospitals (FAH)
Nadine Kaslow, Emory University School of Medicine
Christopher F. Koller, Milbank Memorial Fund
Elizabeth A. McGlynn, Kaiser Permanente
Mary D. Naylor, Gerontology and the New Courtland Center for Transitions and Health, University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing
Alan Weil, Health Affairs
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Acknowledgments
This report summarizes the proceedings of two workshops convened in September 2013 and September 2014 to consider issues in the measurement of the risks and causes of premature death. The workshops were sponsored by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and convened by the Committee on Population (CPOP) in the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE) of the National Research Council (NRC) in cooperation with the Institute of Medicine (IOM).
The workshops were organized by a seven-member steering committee composed of experts in the fields of demography, population health, epidemiology, and health measurement. The committee was cochaired by Linda Waite of the University of Chicago in 2013 and Eileen Crimmins of University of Southern California in 2014. The committee included Christine Bachrach, University of Maryland; Lisa Berkman, Harvard University; Majid Ezzati, Imperial College London; Christopher Murray, University of Washington; and Samuel Preston, University of Pennsylvania. The committee provided guidance in developing the workshop agendas, securing expert presentations, and facilitating the conduct of the workshops. The committee also benefited from the input of Richard Suzman, National Institute on Aging, prior to and during the two workshops. Although the steering committee members played a central role throughout, they did not actively participate in writing this summary.
The presentations during the workshops provided the basis for lively and informative discussions. In addition to presentations by several steering committee members, we greatly appreciate the contributions of Robert Anderson, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Mark Cullen, Stanford University; Jessica Ho, Duke University; Michael McGinnis, Institute of Medicine; Ali Mokdad, University of Washington; Haidong Wang, University of Washington; and Theo Vos, University of Washington.
The steering committee acknowledges the work of the staff of the NRC in organizing the workshops and this report. Thomas Plewes, CPOP director, provided overall direction and guidance for the project. Holly Rhodes of the Board on Science Education of DBASSE served as rapporteur for this summary. Kevin Kinsella and Danielle Johnson of CPOP provided assistance with logistical details and various aspects of report preparation. Paula Whitacre edited the report, and Kirsten Sampson Snyder orchestrated the review process. The steering committee also is grateful to Linda Ettinger and other staff of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, Washington, for arranging meeting space and logistical support for the 2014 workshop.
This workshop summary was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the institution in making its report as sound as possible, and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
The panel thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: Jessica Y. Ho, Population Research Institute and Department of Sociology, Duke University; Richard G. Rogers, Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder; and Michael A. Stoto, Health Systems Administration and Population Health, School of Nursing and Health Studies, Georgetown University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Mark D. Hayward, Population Research Center, Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that
the independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of the report rests entirely with the author and the NRC.
Eileen M. Crimmins, Cochair
Linda J. Waite, Cochair
Steering Committee for the Workshops
on Measuring the Risks and Causes of
Premature Death
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Contents
2 DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY IN THE STUDY OF PREMATURE MORTALITY
Review of the Methodology for the 1993 Estimates of the Actual Causes of Mortality
Approaches to Measuring Premature Mortality and Risk Factors
Methodology Used in Major Studies of Premature Mortality
Issues in the Measurement of Premature Mortality and Risk Factors
3 DATA FROM MAJOR STUDIES OF PREMATURE MORTALITY
Updating McGinnis’ Actual Causes of Death
Findings from International Comparisons
