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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
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APPENDIX B

Workshop Agenda

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
Workshop Agenda
October 21-22, 2015
Keck Center
500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC

WORKSHOP GOALS

Inform the committee as they write their report on the science of attribution of specific extreme weather events to human-caused climate change and natural variability.

Specifically, the committee will:

  • Provide an assessment of current scientific understanding and capabilities for attribution of specific extreme weather events to climate change.
  • Provide guidance about the robustness of extreme event attribution science. The guidance should discriminate among different attribution approaches and different classes of extreme events, and it should consider various characteristics of the analysis (e.g., data coverage and quality, model performance, etc.).
  • Identify research priorities for further development of the approaches.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2015

OPEN SESSION–Keck 103
12:00 P.M. Lunch available to all participants
OPEN SESSION–Keck 100
1:00 P.M. Welcoming remarks and introduction
David Titley, Pennsylvania State University
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
×
1:30 P.M. Framing of event attribution questions and risk-based perspective for decision making
Alexis Hannart, National Center for Scientific Research (France)
2:00 P.M. Background and overview on climate attribution of extreme events
Friederike Otto, University of Oxford
2:30 P.M. Break
3:00 P.M. Panel on Methods and Uncertainties
Moderated by: Ted Shepherd, University of Reading
Panelists will have 5 min for a brief presentation; remaining time to be used for discussion.
  • Observed climate change, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (WebEx)
  • Coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models, David Karoly, University of Melbourne (WebEx)
  • Large ensembles, Myles Allen, University of Oxford
  • SSTs and sea ice, Judith Perlwitz, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory
  • Circulation analogs, Pascal Yiou, Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (France)
  • Building confidence, Leonard Smith, University of Oxford
5:00 P.M. General Discussion
(includes questions/comments from Webinar participants)
Moderated by: John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
5:45 P.M. Adjourn
6:15 P.M. Reception [Keck Atrium]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015

OPEN SESSION–Keck 100
9:30 A.M Panel on Attribution of Specific Weather Phenomena
Moderated by: Phil Mote, Oregon State University
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
×

Panelists will have 5 min for a brief presentation; remaining time to be used for discussion.

  • Extreme heat and cold events, Ken Kunkel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information/North Carolina State University
  • Drought events, Marty Hoerling, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory
  • Wildfires, Eric Kasischke, National Aeronautics and Space Administration/University of Maryland
  • Extreme rain events/flooding, Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • Extreme snow/freezing rain events, Jay Lawrimore, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information
  • Hurricanes, Tom Knutson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
  • Tornadoes, Jeff Trapp, University of Illinois
  • Extreme sea level rise events, William Sweet, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service
10:45 A.M. Break
11:15 A.M. Panel discussion continues
12:15 P.M. Working lunch
1:15 P.M. Break out group session to identify opportunities and challenges on the following topics:
  1. Uncertainty quantification:
    1. assessing model quality
    2. uncertainty quantification given a reasonable model
    3. how can event attribution be evaluated
  2. Framing of event attribution questions (Are we asking the right questions?) and how to describe and quantify a potential anthropogenic component to the meteorological causes of an extreme event, given that natural variability is generally playing a dominant role.
  3. Timescale/operational event attribution (e.g., How does the timescale of an event impact our ability to attribute the event? On what timelines can event attribution studies be conducted? How does the timescale of an event affect the timeline on which attribution studies can be conducted?).
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
×
3:15 P.M Break (Time for Rapporteurs to collect their thoughts)
3:45 P.M. Rapporteurs report back in plenary
4:15 P.M. Invited responses to the workshop discussions
Kathy Jacobs, University of Arizona
5:00 P.M Wrap up
David Titley, Pennsylvania State University
5:30 P.M. Adjourn
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
×
Page157
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
×
Page158
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
×
Page159
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.
×
Page160
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Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change Get This Book
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As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts.

Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events.

Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

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