POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC REVERSALS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
EFFECTS OF HEALTH PROGRAMS ON CHILD MORTALITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
FACTORS AFFECTING CONTRACEPTIVE USE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
POPULATION DYNAMICS OF KENYA
POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SENEGAL
SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF ADOLESCENT FERTILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
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PANEL ON THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
KENNETH H.HILL (Chair),
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University
ADERANTI ADEPOJU,
Institut de Développement Economique et de la Planification (IDEP), Dakar, Senegal
JANE T.BERTRAND,
School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University
CAROLINE H.BLEDSOE,
Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University
WILLIAM BRASS,
Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, England
DOUGLAS C.EWBANK,
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
PHILIPPE FARGUES,
Centre d’Etudes et de Documentation Economique, Sociale et Juridique (CEDEJ), Cairo, Egypt
RON J.LESTHAEGHE,
Faculteit van de Economische, Sociale en Politieke Wetenschappen, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
PATRICK O.OHADIKE,
Regional Institute for Population Studies (RIPS), Accra, Ghana
ANNE R.PEBLEY,
The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
DANIEL M.SALA-DIAKANDA,
Institut de Formation et de Recherche Démographiques (IFORD), Yaoundé, Cameroon
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
SAMUEL H.PRESTON (Chair),
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
JOSE-LUIS BOBADILLA,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
JOHN B.CASTERLINE,
Department of Sociology, Brown University
KENNETH H.HILL,
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University
DEAN T.JAMISON,
School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles
ANNE R.PEBLEY,
The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
RONALD R.RINDFUSS,
Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
T.PAUL SCHULTZ,
Department of Economics, Yale University
SUSAN C.M.SCRIMSHAW,
School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles
BETH J.SOLDO,
Department of Demography, Georgetown University
MARTA TIENDA,
Population Research Center, University of Chicago
BARBARA BOYLE TORREY,
Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C.
JAMES TRUSSELL,
Office of Population Research, Princeton University
AMY O.TSUI,
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
LINDA G.MARTIN, Director
BARNEY COHEN, Research Associate
SUSAN M.COKE, Senior Project Assistant
KAREN A.FOOTE, Research Associate
DIANE L.GOLDMAN, Administrative Assistant*
JAMES N.GRIBBLE, Program Officer
JOAN MONTGOMERY HALFORD, Senior Project Assistant**
CAROLE L.JOLLY, Program Officer
DOMINIQUE MEEKERS, Research Associate*
PAULA J.MELVILLE, Senior Project Assistant
Preface
This report is one in a series of studies that have been carried out under the auspices of the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa of the National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Population. The Research Council has a long history of examining population issues in developing countries. In 1971 it issued the report Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications. In 1977, the predecessor Committee on Population and Demography began a major study of levels and trends of fertility and mortality in the developing world that resulted in 13 country reports and 6 reports on demographic methods. Then, in the early 1980s, it undertook a study of the determinants of fertility in the developing world, which resulted in 10 reports. In the mid- and late-1980s, the Committee on Population assessed the economic consequences of population growth and the health consequences of contraceptive use and controlled fertility, among many other activities.
No publication on the demography of sub-Saharan Africa emerged from the early work of the committee, largely because of the paucity of data and the poor quality of what was available. However, censuses, ethnographic studies, and surveys of recent years, such as those under the auspices of the World Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Survey programs, have made available data on the demography of sub-Saharan Africa. The data collection has no doubt been stimulated by the increasing interest of both scholars and policymakers in the demographic development of Africa
and the relations between demographic change and socioeconomic developments. In response to this interest, the Committee on Population held a meeting in 1989 to ascertain the feasibility and desirability of a major study of the demography of Africa, and decided to set up a Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa.
The panel, which is chaired by Kenneth Hill and includes members from Africa, Europe, and the United States, met for the first time in February 1990 in Washington, D.C. At that meeting the panel decided to set up six working groups, composed of its own members and other experts on the demography of Africa, to carry out specific studies. Four working groups focused on cross-national studies of substantive issues: the social dynamics of adolescent fertility, factors affecting contraceptive use, the effects on mortality of child survival and general health programs, and the demographic effects of economic reversals. The two other working groups were charged with in-depth studies of Kenya and Senegal, with the objective of studying linkages between demographic variables and between those variables and socioeconomic changes.
The panel also decided to publish a volume of papers reviewing levels and trends of fertility, the proximate determinants of fertility, nuptiality, child mortality, adult mortality, internal migration, and international migration, as well as the demographic consequences of the AIDS epidemic. This volume comprises those eight papers.
As is the case for all of the panel’s work, this report would not have been possible without the cooperation and assistance of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) program of the Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems. We are grateful to the DHS staff for responding to our inquiries and facilitating our early access to the survey data.
We are also grateful to the organizations that provided financial support for the work of the panel: the Office of Population and the Africa Bureau of the Agency for International Development, the Andrew W.Mellon Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Rockefeller Foundation. Besides providing funding, the representatives of these organizations were a source of information and advice in the development of the panel’s overall work plan.
The editors would also like to express their gratitude to all of the authors. In addition to writing the papers, the authors were exceedingly gracious in responding to the many questions that were asked of them throughout the preparation of this volume. They would also like to recognize the efforts of Dominique Meekers in coordinating the early work on this volume and of Janet Ewing for providing bibliographic assistance. Finally,
special thanks are also due Paula Melville for superb administrative support, Florence Poillon for skillful copyediting of the volume, Elaine McGarraugh for meticulous production assistance, and Eugenia Grohman for ably coordinating the review and editing process.
SAMUEL H.PRESTON, Chair
Committee on Population
Contents
INTRODUCTION |
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FERTILITY LEVELS, DIFFERENTIALS, AND TRENDS |
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Recent Evidence of a Fertility Decline in Countries Participating in the DHS, |
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Comparison of Recent Fertility Trends in Africa and Other Developing Regions, |
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THE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY |
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RECENT TRENDS IN MARRIAGE AGES |
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TRENDS IN CHILDHOOD MORTALITY |
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Appendix A: Summarization Process for Table 5–2: Country Notes, |
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ADULT MORTALITY |
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INTERNAL MIGRATION, URBANIZATION, AND POPULATION DISTRIBUTION |
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