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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
Table of Contents Page 1. Executive Summary......................................................................................................1 2. Introduction ..................................................................................................................7 3. Review of Existing Methods for Quantifying Aircraft-Related Lead Emissions ......................................................................................................................9 3.1 Literature Search ................................................................................................10 3.2 Summary of Existing Methodologies and Information Sources for Quantifying Aircraft-Related Lead Emissions ..................................................10 3.3 Issues Identified During the Review ..................................................................17 4. Development and Application of a Refined Methodology for Quantifying Aircraft-Related Lead Emissions ...............................................................................27 4.1 Methodology Overview .....................................................................................28 4.2 Required Inputs and Assumptions .....................................................................30 4.3 Results ................................................................................................................41 5. Airborne Lead and Aircraft Activity Data Collection at Airports ..............................45 5.1 Data Collection Overview..................................................................................46 5.2 RVS Field Study ................................................................................................53 5.3 APA Field Study ................................................................................................66 5.4 SMO Field Study ...............................................................................................79 5.5 LTOs from On-Site Observations and ATADS .................................................91 5.6 Additional Lines of Evidence for the Origins of Airborne Pb ...........................92 5.7 Comparison of SMO Data to Previous Studies..................................................98 5.8 Key Observations .............................................................................................103 6. Application of the Refined Methodology Using Site-Specific Data ........................105 6.1 Site-Specific Inventory Method and Inputs .....................................................105 6.2 Results ..............................................................................................................121 6.3 Conclusions ......................................................................................................128 7. Air Quality Modeling and Emission Inventory Evaluation ......................................130 7.1 Air Quality Modeling .......................................................................................130 7.2 Comparison of Modeled and Monitored PM-Pb Concentrations ....................145 8. References ................................................................................................................160 9. Abbreviations and Acronyms ...................................................................................163 Appendix A â Annotated Bibliography Appendix B â Additional Field Study Information Appendix C â Location of Airport Emissions Areas Appendix D â Model-to-Monitor Comparisons Using Publicly Available Data -i-
List of Figures Figure Page Figure 1 Modeled versus Measured PM2.5-PbAt the RVS North Site ................................5 Figure 2 Modeled versus Measured PM2.5-Pb at the APA Central Site ............................5 Figure 3 Modeled versus Measured PM2.5-Pb Concentrations at the SMO Northeast Site .................................................................................................................6 Figure 4 Covariation of BSFC with Mass Fuel Flow (Legend: Engine, Fuel, % Throttle) .......................................................................................................................18 Figure 5 Model-to-Monitor Comparison at SMO .............................................................25 Figure 6 Flow Chart of Airport Inventory Development Methods ...................................29 Figure 7 BGI PQ100 PM samplers for PM2.5 (PM10 inlet followed by a PM2.5 cyclone) (left) and TSP inlet (right) .............................................................................48 Figure 8 Airport Diagram and PM Sampling and Activity Data Collection Locations Deployed at RVS.........................................................................................53 Figure 9 Hourly Average Operations at RVS â All Aircraft ............................................56 Figure 10 Time-in-Mode Data for Total Time in the Run-Up Area and Duration of Magneto Testing at RVS .........................................................................................57 Figure 11 Daytime (0800-1959 CDT) 15-minute Average 10m ASOS Winds at RVS, March 25 â April 29, 2013 .................................................................................62 Figure 12 PM2.5-Pb at the North and East Sites Stratified by the Prevailing Wind Direction During Sample Collection at RVS ...............................................................64 Figure 13 PM2.5-Pb at the North and South Sites Stratified by the Prevailing Wind Direction During Sample Collection at RVS .....................................................65 Figure 14 TSP-Pb versus PM2.5-Pb at the North and East Sites .......................................65 Figure 15 Airport Diagram and PM Sampling and Activity Data Collection Locations Deployed at APA ........................................................................................66 Figure 16 Fixed-wing Aircraft Average Hourly Operations at APA ................................69 Figure 17 Time-in-Mode Data for Total Time in the Run-Up Area and Duration of Magneto Testing at APA .........................................................................................70 Figure 18 Daytime (0700-1859 MDT) 15-minute Average 10m ASOS winds at APA, May 15 â June 10, 2013 .....................................................................................75 Figure 19 PM2.5-Pb at the Central and East Sites at APA.................................................77 Figure 20 TSP-Pb versus PM2.5-Pb at the Central and East Sites at APA ........................78 Figure 21 Airport Diagram and PM Sampling and Activity Data Collection Locations Deployed at SMO ........................................................................................79 Figure 22 Piston-Engine Aircraft Average Hourly Operations at SMO ...........................82 -ii-
Figure 23 Time-in-Mode Data for Total Time in the Run-Up Area and Duration of Magneto Testing at SMO ........................................................................................83 Figure 24 Daytime (0800-1959 PDT) 15-minute Average 10m ASOS Winds at SMO, July 3 â 30, 2013 ...............................................................................................87 Figure 25 PM2.5-Pb at the Northeast and Southeast Sites at SMO ...................................90 Figure 26 TSP-Pb versus PM2.5-Pb at the Northeast and Southwest Sites at SMO ..........91 Figure 27 Distributions of Daily Video-Recorded and ATADS-Reported LTOs .............92 Figure 28 PM2.5 Br and Pb Measured by XRF and Stratified by Airport .........................94 Figure 29 PM2.5 Br and Pb Measured by XRF and Stratified as Samples with High or Low Expected Impacts from Aircraft Exhaust ...............................................94 Figure 30 Pb Isotope Ratios for Airborne PM-Pb, Soil, and Avgas Samples Collected at the Three Airports ....................................................................................96 Figure 31 Pb Isotope Ratios for Airborne PM-Pb with Samples Stratified as High or Low Expected Impacts from Aircraft Exhaust ........................................................97 Figure 32 Pb Isotope Ratios Collocated PM Samples Collected at the Three Airports ........................................................................................................................98 Figure 33 Pb Total Concentration versus the 208Pb/206Pb Ratio for PM Samples Collected at the Three Airports ....................................................................................99 Figure 34 Sampling Locations for the SCAQMD, ICF, and ACRP PM-Pb Studies ......101 Figure 35 Flow Chart of Airport Inventory Development Methods Using Field Study Data Sources ................................................................................106 Figure 36 Fuel and Time to Climb at Altitude, Lancair LC-40 ......................................117 Figure 37 Altitude Impacts on Takeoff Time, Single-Engine Carbureted Aircraft ........118 Figure 38 RVS Receptor Grid.........................................................................................140 Figure 39 APA Receptor Grid ........................................................................................141 Figure 40 SMO Receptor Grid ........................................................................................142 Figure 41 Modeled Period-Average PM-Pb Concentrations at RVS .............................143 Figure 42 Modeled Period-Average PM-Pb Concentrations at APA .............................144 Figure 43 Modeled Period-Average PM-Pb Concentrations at SMO ............................145 Figure 44 Modeled versus Measured PM2.5-Pb at the RVS North Site ..........................147 Figure 45 Modeled Total and Source-Group-Specific PM-Pb Concentrations at RVS ............................................................................................................................149 Figure 46 Modeled versus Measured PM2.5-Pb at the APA Central Site ........................150 Figure 47 Modeled Total and Source-Group-Specific PM-Pb Concentrations at APA............................................................................................................................153 -iii-
Figure 48 Modeled versus Measured PM2.5-Pb Concentrations at the SMO Northeast Site .............................................................................................................154 Figure 49 Modeled Total and Source-Group-Specific PM-Pb Concentrations at SMO ...........................................................................................................................156 -iv-
List of Tables Table Page Table 1 Estimated Calendar Year 2008 Pb Emissions (tons per year) ...............................4 Table 2 Estimated Calendar Year 2011 Pb Emissions (tons per year) ...............................4 Table 3 Original Fuel Flow Rates from AP-42 .................................................................11 Table 4 Updated Fuel Flow Rates from AP-42 ................................................................12 Table 5 EDMS Fuel Flow Rates .......................................................................................13 Table 6 Swiss FOCA Fuel Flow Rates .............................................................................16 Table 7 Piston-Engine Oil Data ........................................................................................21 Table 8 Time-in-Mode Comparison .................................................................................22 Table 9 Comparative Summary of Methodologies ...........................................................30 Table 10 BSFC Data for Fixed-Wing Aircraft Operation Modes.....................................34 Table 11 Estimated Fuel Consumption Rates for the Lycoming IO-540 Engine .............35 Table 12 TFMSC Piston-Powered Operations Used to Determine Aircraft Distributions .................................................................................................................36 Table 13 Time-In-Mode Assumptions (Minutes) .............................................................38 Table 14 Total Aircraft Operations by Airport and Year .................................................39 Table 15 2008 NEI Total Operations by Airport and Year ...............................................39 Table 16 Fraction of General Aviation and Air Taxi Landings from Piston- Powered Aircraft ..........................................................................................................40 Table 17 Fraction of Military Operations from Piston-Powered Aircraft ........................41 Table 18 Calendar Year 2008 Inventory Results ...............................................................42 Table 19 Calendar Year 2011 Inventory Results ...............................................................42 Table 20 Calendar Year 2008 Inventory Results ...............................................................44 Table 21 PM Data Collection Summary ...........................................................................50 Table 22 PM-Pb Measurement Precision from Collocated Sampling ..............................51 Table 23 RVS Aircraft Activity Data Collection at RVS .................................................55 Table 24 Distribution of Aircraft Types Identified by Tail ID at RVS ............................56 Table 25 Time in Mode Data Collected for Run-Up Operations at RVS .........................57 Table 26 Summary of Time-in-Mode and Location of Aircraft Landing and Takeoff Operations at RVS ..........................................................................................58 Table 27 Airborne PM Sampling Locations for the RVS Study ......................................59 -v-
Table 28 Airborne PM Sampling Configurations and Wind Direction Characteristics at RVS .................................................................................................60 Table 29 Airborne Pb Concentrations Observed at RVS ..................................................63 Table 30 Aircraft Activity Data Collection at APA ..........................................................68 Table 31 Distribution of Aircraft Types Identified by Tail ID APA ................................69 Table 32 Time in Mode Data Collected for Run-Up Operations at APA .........................70 Table 33 Summary of Time-in-Mode and Location of Aircraft Landing and Takeoff Operations at APA .........................................................................................71 Table 34 Airborne PM Sampling Locations for the APA Study ......................................73 Table 35 Airborne PM Sampling Configurations and Wind Direction Characteristics at APA .................................................................................................74 Table 36 Airborne Pb Concentrations Observed at APA .................................................76 Table 37 Aircraft Activity Data Collection at SMO .........................................................80 Table 38 Distribution of Aircraft Types Identified by Tail ID at SMO............................82 Table 39 Time-in-Mode Data Collected for Run-Up Operations Including Magneto Testing at SMO .............................................................................................82 Table 40 Summary of Time-in-Mode and Location of Aircraft Landing and Takeoff Operations at SMO .........................................................................................84 Table 41 Airborne PM Sampling Locations for the SMO Study .....................................85 Table 42 Airborne PM Sampling Configurations and Wind Direction Characteristics at SMO ................................................................................................86 Table 43 Airborne Pb Concentrations Observed at SMO .................................................89 Table 44 Measurement Attributes for the Three Airborne PM-Pb studies at SMO .......100 Table 45 TSP-Pb (ng/m3) Summary Statistics for the SCAQMD, ICF, and ACRP Summertime Studies ..................................................................................................102 Table 46 Piston Engine Load Points for Standard Operating Modes ..............................110 Table 47 RVS Times In Mode (Minutes) ........................................................................111 Table 48 APA Times In Mode (Minutes) ........................................................................112 Table 49 SMO Times In Mode (Minutes) .......................................................................112 Table 50 Proportion of Aircraft Activity by Engine Type ...............................................114 Table 51 RVS Piston Aircraft Inventory, Mean Fuel Consumption Rates ......................115 Table 52 APA Piston Aircraft Inventory, Mean Fuel Consumption Rates ......................115 Table 53 SMO Piston Aircraft Inventory, Mean Fuel Consumption Rates .....................115 Table 54 Ownerâs Manuals Used for Developing Altitude Adjustments ........................117 Table 55 Selected Performance Results Evaluated at Altitude of Each Airport ..............119 -vi-
