National Academies Press: OpenBook
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22203.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22203.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22203.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22203.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22203.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22203.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22203.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

T R A N S I T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M TCRP REPORT 176 TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2015 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration in cooperation with the Transit Development Corporation Subject Areas Public Transportation • Energy • Environment Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use— The Land Use Component Frank Gallivan Eliot Rose ICF InternatIonal San Francisco, CA Reid Ewing Shima Hamidi UnIversIty oF Utah Salt Lake City, UT and Thomas Brown nelson\nygaard ConsUltIng assoCIates New York, NY

TCRP REPORT 176 Project H-46 ISSN 1073-4872 ISBN 978-0-309-30855-7 © 2015 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Transit Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the Transit Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The nation’s growth and the need to meet mobility, environmental, and energy objectives place demands on public transit systems. Current systems, some of which are old and in need of upgrading, must expand service area, increase service frequency, and improve efficiency to serve these demands. Research is necessary to solve operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to intro- duce innovations into the transit industry. The Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the transit industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for TCRP was originally identified in TRB Special Report 213—Research for Public Transit: New Directions, published in 1987 and based on a study sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration—now the Federal Transit Admin istration (FTA). A report by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), Transportation 2000, also recognized the need for local, problem- solving research. TCRP, modeled after the longstanding and success- ful National Cooperative Highway Research Program, undertakes research and other technical activities in response to the needs of tran- sit service providers. The scope of TCRP includes a variety of transit research fields including planning, service configuration, equipment, facilities, operations, human resources, maintenance, policy, and administrative practices. TCRP was established under FTA sponsorship in July 1992. Pro- posed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, TCRP was autho- rized as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). On May 13, 1992, a memorandum agreement out- lining TCRP operating procedures was executed by the three cooper- ating organizations: FTA, the National Academies, acting through the Transportation Research Board (TRB); and the Transit Development Corporation, Inc. (TDC), a nonprofit educational and research orga- nization established by APTA. TDC is responsible for forming the independent governing board, designated as the TCRP Oversight and Project Selection (TOPS) Committee. Research problem statements for TCRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the TOPS Committee to formulate the research program by identi- fying the highest priority projects. As part of the evaluation, the TOPS Committee defines funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the Transportation Research Board. The panels prepare project state- ments (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide techni- cal guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooperative research pro- grams since 1962. As in other TRB activ ities, TCRP project panels serve voluntarily without com pensation. Because research cannot have the desired impact if products fail to reach the intended audience, special emphasis is placed on dissemi- nating TCRP results to the intended end users of the research: tran- sit agencies, service providers, and suppliers. TRB provides a series of research reports, syntheses of transit practice, and other support- ing material developed by TCRP research. APTA will arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by urban and rural transit industry practitioners. The TCRP provides a forum where transit agencies can cooperatively address common operational problems. The TCRP results support and complement other ongoing transit research and training programs. Published reports of the TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR TCRP REPORT 176 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Dianne S. Schwager, Senior Program Officer Jeffrey Oser, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Ellen M. Chafee, Editor TCRP PROJECT H-46 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Emmanuel C.B. “Cris” Liban, Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Agency, Los Angeles, CA (Chair) Justin D. Antos, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, Washington, DC Stacey G. Bricka, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Austin, TX Projjal K. Dutta, New York State Metropolitan Transportation Authority, New York, NY Joshua Engel-Yan, Metrolinx, Toronto, ON Damon Fordham, The Cadmus Group, Inc., Arlington, VA Robert G. Graff, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, Philadelphia, PA Eric W. Hesse, Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District, Portland, OR Hilda Lafebre, San Mateo County Transit District, San Carlos, CA Kathy S. Leotta, Sound Transit, Seattle, WA Gary Prince, King County Metro Transit, Seattle, WA Tina Hodges, FHWA Liaison Maya Sarna, FTA Liaison Matthew Hardy, AASHTO Liaison Ed Watt, Amalgamated Transit Union Liaison Richard Weaver, APTA Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison

TCRP Report 176: Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component analytically examines the complex interrelationships between transit and land use patterns to better understand their contribution to compact development and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction benefits. The report is accompanied by an Excel-based sketch-modeling tool (“calculator tool”) that applies the research findings. The calculator tool estimates the land use benefits of existing or planned transit projects with a minimum amount of input data required. This research will be useful to transit agencies, planners, modelers, and researchers seeking to better understand and to quantify the impacts of transit service on compact development, energy use, and air quality in urbanized areas. This research project was undertaken to (1) identify, describe, and quantify the synergis- tic interaction between transit and land use and the effects on transportation-related GHG emissions and energy use and (2) develop a methodology to quantify the transportation- related GHG emissions and energy use related to land use changes that can be attributed to transit. The final report is a concisely written document that • Presents transit’s impact on GHG emissions and energy use, including both the ridership effects and the land use effects; • Introduces and provides a user’s guide to the calculator tool; • Identifies future research; and • Includes two technical appendices pertaining to the use of statistical models in this research. The calculator tool allows the user to estimate the land use benefits of the existing regional transit system, a regional transit plan, a new transit route or improved transit service along an existing corridor, a new transit station or stop, or improved transit service to an existing station or stop. All land use benefits are estimated in terms of reduction in vehicle miles traveled, gasoline consumption reduced, and GHG emissions saved. The calculator tool is posted on the TCRP Report 176 summary web page of the TRB website and can be accessed at www.TRB.org/main/blurbs/172110.aspx. F O R E W O R D By Dianne S. Schwager Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

1 Summary 5 Section 1 Introduction 5 1.1 Research Problem 5 1.2 Project Scope and Objectives 6 1.3 Research Tasks 6 1.4 Research Applicability 6 1.5 Report Structure 8 Section 2 Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use: The Land Use Component 8 2.1 Evidence for the Land Use Effect and Land Use Benefits 9 2.2 The Ridership Effect 9 2.3 Other Benefits 10 2.4 Focus of This Research 11 Section 3 Research Methodology 13 Section 4 The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 13 4.1 Summary of Key Findings 15 4.2 How to Measure Density? 16 4.3 Land Use Benefits of Existing Transit Systems 18 4.4 Land Use Benefits of Transit System Improvements 23 4.5 Portland’s Westside Light-Rail Extension 24 4.6 Factors that May Influence the Land Use Effect 29 Section 5 The Land Use Benefit Calculator: An Introduction 29 5.1 Capabilities of the Calculator 30 5.2 Structure of the Calculator 30 5.3 Relationship to Other Modeling Tools 32 Section 6 The Calculator: User Guide and Case Studies 32 6.1 Step 1: Select Your Baseline Region 35 6.2 Step 2: Select Your Analysis Type 37 6.3 Step 3: Enter Data on Your Project 40 6.4 Step 4: View Information on the Benefits of Transit 43 6.5 Case Study: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission 47 6.6 Case Study: Utah Transit Authority—Frontlines 2015 Rail Plan 51 Section 7 Recommended Practice for Quantifying GHG Emissions from Transit 51 7.1 Applying the Land Use Benefit in a GHG Inventory 52 7.2 Quantifying the Land Use Benefit Using a Pre-Defined Region 53 7.3 Quantifying the Land Use Effect Using a Custom Region C O N T E N T S

54 Section 8 Future Research 56 Appendix A Key Results from Statistical Models 67 Appendix B Statistical Models in Depth 97 Bibliography 99 Acronyms and Initialisms

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TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 176: Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component examines interrelationships between transit and land use patterns to understand their contribution to compact development and the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction benefits.

The report is accompanied by an Excel-based tool that applies the research findings. The calculator tool estimates the land use benefits of existing or planned transit projects. The report and tool will enable users to determine quantifiable impacts of transit service on compact development, energy use, and air quality in urbanized areas.

Software Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

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