Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
SHRP 2 Reliability Project L04 Incorporating Reliability Performance Measures into Operations and Planning Modeling Tools : Reference Material Yannis C. Stogios Delcan Corporation Hani Mahmassani Transportation Center Northwestern University Peter Vovsha Parsons Brinckerhoff TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Washington, D.C. 2014 www.TRB.org
© 2014 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration in cooperation with the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. It was conducted in the second Strategic Highway Research Program, which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. The second Strategic Highway Research Program grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, or FHWA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing material in this document for educational and not-for-profit purposes will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from SHRP 2. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this document was a part of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the second Strategic Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this document are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the authors. This material has not been edited by the Transportation Research Board. SPECIAL NOTE: This document IS NOT an official publication of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the National Academies.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. (Dan) Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C.D. (Dan) Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
Preface This report represents the assembly of two key pieces of investigation that provide additional detail to support the project findings summarized in the final report. The two reports included under the Reference Materials cover are ï· Task 7: Simulation Model Adaptation and Development ï· Task 11: Incorporating Reliability into Travel Models The two reports were prepared to summarize key findings at specific milestones during the course of the project. The information contained in these reports represents a more detailed description of the theories behind the findings, the developmental aspects, and subject-specific findings. Only a summary of the more relevant information from these reports is provided in the final report. The Task 7 report, Simulation Model Adaptation and Development, provides a detailed description of the activities required to develop the simulation models (microscopic and mesoscopic) to incorporate the endogenous causes of travel time reliability issues. This report further provides detailed descriptions of the development of the overall framework to incorporate travel time reliability into simulation models, including the associated tools that enable the use of simulation trajectory output to conduct reliability analysis. The tools, developed specifically for this project, include a scenario generation and management tool and a Trajectory Processor tool, which is capable of analysis and presentation of the simulation results from a reliability perspective. The Task 11 report, Incorporating Reliability into Travel Models, involves an examination of a broad spectrum of technical aspects associated with linking travel demand forecasting models to traffic microsimulation so that more accurate representation of traffic conditions can be fed back to choices about travel time, travel route, travel mode, or the decision to travel at all. The report summarizes the implemented synthesis of the research literature and testing of various methods to incorporate travel time reliability in operational travel models. For this report, the incorporation of reliability is primarily considered in the overall framework of demand-network equilibrium with the demand side represented by an advanced activity-based model (ABM) and the network simulation side represented by an advanced dynamic traffic assignment (DTA). However, to be inclusive, the investigation into how reliability could be introduced into the generalized cost function was also extended to incorporate traditional 4-step demand models and static equilibrium assignment models with respect to one or more of the following travel dimensions: generation, distribution, mode choice, and route choice.
Contents 1 Task 7: Simulation Model Adaptation and Development 2 CHAPTER 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Framework for Incorporating Reliability into Operations and Planning Models 4 1.2 Methodology Overview 7 Part 1 Identification and Adaptation of Existing Models 7 CHAPTER 2 Producing Travel Time Variability Using Existing Tools 7 2.1 Methodology to Leverage Networkwide Travel Time Variability Relation 22 CHAPTER 3 Mesoscopic Model 22 3.1 Software Description 23 3.2 Model Adaptation 29 3.3 Model Calibration and Validation 63 CHAPTER 4 Microscopic Model 63 4.1 Software Description 66 4.2 Model Adaptation 92 4.3 Model Calibration and Validation 104 Part 2 Development of Unifying Framework for Scenario-based Reliability Analysis 104 CHAPTER 5 Scenario Manager 104 5.1 Introduction 107 5.2 Methodology for Scenario-Based Reliability Analysis Using Simulation Tools 114 5.3 Implementation of Scenario Manager 124 CHAPTER 6 Trajectory Processor 124 6.1 Introduction 128 6.2 Software Description 131 6.3 Integration with Selected Models (DYNASMART and Aimsun) 138 CHAPTER 7 Travel Time Reliability Applications in Operations- Oriented Models 138 7.1 Policy-Level Applications 139 7.2 Project-Level Applications 141 References
147 APPENDIX A Description of TomTom Trajectory Data Set
154 Task 11: Incorporating Reliability Into Travel Models 154 Executive Summary 154 Introduction 154 Findings and Recommendations on ABM-DTA Integration 156 Findings and Recommendations on Incorporation of Reliability 158 Findings and Recommendations on Implementation Framework 159 Recommendations for Future Research 161 CHAPTER 1 Specifics of ABM-DTA Integration 161 1.1 Specifics of ABM-DTA Equilibration Versus Aggregate Models 176 1.2 Microsimulation of Individual Agents 185 1.3 ABM Improvements to Provide Necessary Inputs for DTA 191 CHAPTER 2 Incorporation of Travel Time Reliability 191 2.1 Approaches to Quantify Reliability and Its Impacts 196 2.2 Incorporation of Reliability into Demand Model 201 2.3 Incorporation of Reliability into Network Simulation 203 2.4 Toward Operational Models Incorporating Reliability 211 CHAPTER 3 Single-Run Framework 211 3.1 Construction of Route-Level Reliability Measures 218 3.2 Operational Approaches to Route-Level Reliability 227 3.3 Network Equilibrium Formulations with Reliability Measures 231 CHAPTER 4 Multiple-Run Framework 231 4.1 Formation of Scenarios 241 4.2 Demand Scenarios for Incorporation of Reliability 247 CHAPTER 5 Conclusions 247 5.1 General Model Framework 248 5.2 Integration of Travel Demand and Network Simulation Models 249 5.3 Quantification of Reliability and Its Incorporation into Models 251 5.4 Implementation Framework 252 5.5 Recommendations for Future Research 253 References 266 APPENDIX A Travel Time Variability Measurement and Quantification of Impacts on Individual Travel Choices 266 Components of Highway Utility (Generalized Cost)
268 Perceived Travel Time Weights by Congestion Levels 271 Mean-Variance, Buffer Time, and Other Measures Derived from Travel Time Distribution 275 Schedule Delay Cost Approach 279 Temporal Utility Profiles for Activity Participation 288 Incorporation of Reliability into Choices of Mode, Time-of-Day, and Destination 292 APPENDIX B Accounting for User Heterogeneity 295 APPENDIX C Expected Utility Versus Prospect Theory
