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Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand (2014)

Chapter: Appendix D - Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050 ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22321.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050 ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22321.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050 ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22321.
×
Page 117
Page 118
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050 ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22321.
×
Page 118
Page 119
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D - Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050 ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22321.
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Page 119

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115 The development of Impacts 2050 was facilitated by testing with prospective end users through onsite demonstrations, followed by a beta test of the model. The testing led to a number of model refinements. This section briefly describes the testing, along with the key findings for each. D.1 Onsite Demonstrations of Impacts 2050 The research team conducted onsite demonstrations of Impacts 2050 with three of the five regions for which data are included in the tool: Atlanta, Houston, and Seattle. Planners, travel demand modelers, economic forecasters, and demographers from the local MPO and state DOT participated in the demonstrations, hosted by the local MPO (Table D-1). The objective of the demonstrations was to obtain meaningful feedback from both MPOs and state DOTs in a regional setting. Specifically, participants provided insights on: • Impacts 2050’s structure and source data, • the modeled outcomes, • how Impacts 2050 might be used, and • recommendations for improving Impacts 2050. Participants provided their reactions to Impacts 2050 by answering three general questions: Do you see a need for this tool? Would you use it? What challenges are you facing that you could foresee using the tool to address? The demonstrations proved to be an appropriate venue for initial testing of the real-world value of Impacts 2050. The feedback contributed to refinements to ensure it is user-friendly, its purpose and intended applications are clear, and its instructions match its functionality. These refinements were made and resulted in a beta version of Impacts 2050. The feedback also sheds light on information that should be included in the Impacts 2050 documentation contained in Appendix B and in the User Guide. A set of seven broad findings was drawn from participant feedback during the demonstrations: 1. Generally, Impacts 2050 was favorably received in each of the demonstrations, and most participants were receptive to the tool concept. One participant said, “We can always use bet- ter planning tools because we certainly aren’t solving all our planning problems.” Participants provided feedback that has already been incorporated into the tool. The participants in the demonstrations are eager to obtain the beta test version of Impacts 2050, and many noted that they will provide more substantive feedback once they are able to review the User Guide and “dig around” in the tool themselves. A P P E N D I X D Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050

116 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand 2. The perceived utility of Impacts 2050 is initially tied to where the transportation agency is with regard to its long-range transportation planning process; after consid- eration and discussion, participants discovered other uses for Impacts 2050 beyond its contribution to the development of their long-range plans. Two MPOs have produced their 2040 regional transportation plans, and the third is about two years away from pro- ducing its 2040 plan. Still, several potential and valid uses for Impacts 2050 were suggested, including: • Conduct a quick manipulation of demographic characteristics in relation to land-use issues (but a mapping capability would be preferable or a useful addition). • Conduct sensitivity testing of land-use alternatives and their effect on demographic distributions and travel demand. • Conduct “what if” analyses to present alternatives to the public or to quickly respond to Board members’ (or others’) questions. 3. There was agreement that Impacts 2050’s scenario analysis function will be useful to trans- portation agencies. Participants welcome better ways to conduct scenario planning, and thereby reach agreement on changes from the status quo. Two MPOs observed that while they have conducted scenario planning as part of their transportation plans, they are not certain what it accomplished. A few participants questioned how scenario analysis would benefit or be used among planners. Still, there was general agreement that to be truly useful as a scenario analysis tool, Impacts 2050 should include a process or framework (and examples) for its use that should be included with its dissemination and promotion. 4. Two major and important advantages of Impacts 2050, compared with the models cur- rently being used for long-range planning, are (1) it runs scenarios and produces output much faster than other models, and (2) its inclusion of socio-demographic linkages with transportation and land use fills a transportation planning gap. Transportation agencies have many needs, including better connecting (1) with the public on ideology, alternatives, and tradeoffs; and (2) with decision makers on options and policies—especially those related to land use. Current transportation planning models (which may be accurate) are big, take a long time to run, and produce output that is too complicated to be effective in these settings. While participants in the demonstrations understood that Impacts 2050 is not a replacement for those models, they readily recognized its advantages and the applications for its use (e.g., use the “what if” functionality of Impacts 2050 to run and test the policy impacts within scenarios). Furthermore, most participants welcomed Impacts 2050’s cornerstone feature— its inherent capability to integrate socio-demographics with land-use, economics, and travel planning. Table D-1. Impacts 2050 demonstration schedule. Date Region Host Agency Participating Agencies (number attending) November 26, 2012 Atlanta Atlanta Regional Council (ARC) ARC (9) Georgia Department of Transportation (GA DOT) (4) Panel Member Kyle Mote (GA DOT) February 11, 2013 Houston Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC) H-GAC (4) Texas Department of Transportation (1) Panel Member Duncan Stewart (TxDOT, retired) March 6, 2013 Seattle Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) PSRC (5) Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) (5) Panel Member Lizbeth Martin-Mahar (WSDOT)

Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050 117 5. A drawback to Impacts 2050, which could be a factor that deters its receptivity, is that many transportation agencies have already invested in a wide array of modeling and forecasting tools; they are wary of adding another new tool that someone will have to manage and main- tain (when some staff have not yet mastered the tool already being used). Once participants understood the benefits of Impacts 2050—particularly its speed—their interest in and receptiv- ity to it grew. Still, this drawback should be addressed in the supplemental materials to Impacts 2050. For instance, information in the User Guide should readily explain exactly for what uses Impacts 2050 can and cannot be used, and should also describe the level of effort and process for setting up, learning to use, and maintaining the tool (collect and prepare the data for input into Impacts 2050, develop the custom-relevant scenarios, validate the data, etc.). One par- ticipant suggested that the initial adoption and long-term use of Impacts 2050 might be aided by creating a Web site through which users can download the tool, network with each other in forums as a user community, share case studies and examples on how the tool has been applied, and share modifications and/or updates to the tool. More than anything, demonstra- tion participants opined that transportation agencies need a vision or plan and a system for integrating Impacts 2050 into their existing planning capabilities and models already in hand. Such a Web-based user community and plan are beyond the scope of the work plan for this research effort. 6. Most modelers are used to working with spatial data, so the limited spatial definition of Impacts 2050 (urban, suburban, regional) could be seen as a drawback to its applicabil- ity. This issue can be dealt with somewhat in the User Guide, by explaining (1) how the area-type data are built up from more detailed, tract-level data; and (2) why the amount of spatial detail is limited. Although it is not within the current project’s scope, it may be useful to consider a version of Impacts 2050 that can work at different levels of spatial detail. In one direction, a simpler, easier-to-use version of Impacts 2050 would have no area-type definition at all, with the entire region treated as a single area. In the opposite direction would be a version that treats each Census tract as a separate area. This version would allow some visual mapping of results. Such a tool would take longer to run (maybe requiring a few minutes as opposed to a few seconds), but would still be quick relative to other models. Another potential issue is that users may focus on the results as if they are accurate spatial forecasts, moving away from the purpose of Impacts 2050 for strategic comparison of scenarios. 7. A key to Impacts 2050’s adoption and use is in the quality and level of detail provided through the User Guide. Users must be absolutely clear on: the tool structure, how to easily navigate within the tool, how to input and modify data and run the scenarios, and how to interpret and use the outputs. Participants asked a number of important questions regarding the capabilities and features of Impacts 2050. The following is a summary of their comments and suggestions. • The layout and structure of Impacts 2050 need to be clearly explained—a clear roadmap of the tool needs to be provided. The level of detail contained in Impacts 2050 (e.g., exten- sive variable data, assumptions used for each of the scenarios—including the color-coding schemes) was overwhelming to participants, and they wanted to be assured they will be able to easily understand and readily use the model. • Some participants did not readily understand the purpose of the four scenarios, but most were receptive to the scenario concept. Still, the User Guide, in particular, should provide information on the scenarios and how they can be modified. • Some questioned whether the visual outputs of Impacts 2050 (line graphs and stacked charts) were sufficient. A mapping capability was recommended; this would require sig- nificant resources and time to integrate, and is outside of the scope of work for this research effort.

118 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand • There were questions about whether Impacts 2050 could be used only on the regional or MPO level, or if it could also be applied statewide. The User Guide should address this issue and provide recommendations on how statewide-level scenario analysis can be accomplished (i.e., the data needs and refinements users would need to make, and the steps involved in conducting the analysis). • There were questions about the source data and level of effort required to access and pre- pare the data required for Impacts 2050 for a region where data have not already been included. Instructions in the User Guide should cover this issue, as well as the references for the source data. In sum, the feedback received in the demonstrations indicated a need for, and interest in, Impacts 2050. In each of the demonstration locations, participants made it clear that more mean- ingful feedback will be provided during the beta test of the tool, at which time they will be able to explore and try out Impacts 2050 themselves. The beta test is a critical step of the tool devel- opment process. D.2 Beta Testing of Impacts 2050 The refinements made based on the feedback the team received during the onsite demonstra- tions led to a beta version of Impacts 2050. About 30 people were invited to participate in a testing effort that included three items: (1) the beta version of the model, (2) a draft of the User Guide, and (3) a short brief describing the research effort. Testing participants included participants in the onsite demonstrations (including three panel members) and two MPOs representing two regions not included in Impacts 2050—Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (Austin, TX) and Baltimore Metropolitan Council (Baltimore, MD). The following summarizes the feedback received on each of the testing items. • Feedback on the research brief—Testers found the research brief to be useful, particularly the description of the scenarios, the structure of Impacts 2050, and the sample questions that could be answered by using the tool. Suggestions for improving Impacts 2050 ranged from provide background on the scenario-based process and how scenarios can be manipulated, to “tease out” “what if” answers. • Feedback on the User Guide—Testers appreciated the detailed instructions for using and modifying Impacts 2050, provided in the section describing the model structure. Further- more, they found the User Guide and research brief to be complementary, supporting docu- ments to Impacts 2050. With regard to improvements, they suggested adding instructions for manipulating scenario variables and including visual outputs of scenario runs, so they could follow the process and match their outputs with those in the User Guide. • Feedback on Impacts 2050—Tester feedback on Impacts 2050 encompassed three areas: usability, features and content, and potential use of the tool. – Usability (focusing on the use, appearance, and operationality)—Testers found Impacts 2050 very easy to use. They appreciated its simple structure and quick processing power, and the neat organization of its inputs and outputs. Some links did not function properly (many were fixed during the test). They suggested that to improve usability, include buttons that redirect the user to the User Guide and return them to the start/home page on each of the pages within the tool. – Features and content—On the whole, testers appreciated Impacts 2050’s outputs, and a number asked about whether specific features could be included (e.g., whether the model could be run for a specific year, whether congestion could be included as a variable, and whether percentage teleworking could be shown like other mode-share

Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050 119 figures). Suggestions for clarifications in the model or User Guide included defining cer- tain variables (e.g., children), explaining how to change the travel behavior coefficients, being a little clearer on how to input certain demographic data for regions not already included in the model, and providing tips on building Structure Query Language (SQL) statements. – Potential use of Impacts 2050 by transportation agencies—MPOs with data not already in Impacts 2050 believed they would use the tool and input the data following the instructions. While the use of scenarios in the planning process was new to some MPOs, a few shared how Impacts 2050 could be useful to them: � Provide a back-of-the-envelope way for evaluating scenarios. � Assess “what if” events when brainstorming with policy bodies. � Modify scenarios and test different socio-demographic assumptions during the needs assessment phase of the regional transportation planning process.

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Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Get This Book
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TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand presents the results of research on how socio-demographic changes over the next 30 to 50 years may impact travel demand at the regional level. It is accompanied by a software tool, Impacts 2050, designed to support the long-term planning activities of transportation agencies.

The print version of the report contains a CD-ROM that includes Impacts 2050, the software user’s guide, a PowerPoint presentation about the research, and the research brief. The CD-ROM is also available for download from TRB’s website as an ISO image. Links to the ISO image and instructions for burning a CD-ROM from an ISO image are provided below. This is a large file and may take some time to download using a high-speed connection.

Help on Burning an .ISO CD-ROM Image

Download the .ISO CD-ROM Image*

NCHRP Report 750, Volume 6 is part of a series of reports being produced by NCHRP Project 20-83: Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry. Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for state departments of transportation (DOTs); AASHTO's aim for the research series is to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends.

Other volumes in this series currently available include:

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner’s Guide and Research Report

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 3: Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future

*CD-ROM Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

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