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120 A P P E N D I X E Tool for Identifying Driving Forces in the Scenarios
Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 T o t a l p o p u l a t i o n A g e s t r u c t u r e H o u s e h o l d s t r u c t u r e ( m a r r i e d o r n o t , k i d s o r n o t ) P e r c e n t f o r e i g n b o r n R a c e / e t h n i c i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n I n c o m e d i s t i b u t i o n A g i n g r a t e W o r k f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n P o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y B i r t h r a t e M a r r i a g e r a t e D i v o r c e r a t e H o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n r a t e N u m b e r o f j o b s j o b c r e a t i o n j o b l o s s j o b m i g r a t i o n a m o u n t o f s p a c e r a t e o f c o n v e r s i o n t o / f r o m d e v e l o p a b l e r a t e o f c o n v e r s i o n t o / f r o m p r o t e c t e d N u m b e r o f l a n e m i l e s f o r f r e e w a y s T o t a l r o u t e m i l e s f o r r a i l a n d b u s t e l e w o r k s h a r e O n l i n e s h o p p i n g R a t e o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h s m a r t p h o n e a d o p t i o n s e l f d r i v i n g v e h i c l e s c o s t o f g a s w a l k a n d b i k e p a t h s c a r b o n t a x a t t i t u d e s 1.1 Total population 3 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1.2 Age structure 0 0 2 2 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1.3 Household structure (married or not, kids or not) 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 3 3 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 1.4 Percent of foreign born in each race group 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1.5 Race/ethnicity distribution 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1.6 Income distribution 0 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 1.7 Aging rate 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 1.8 Workforce participation 0 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 1.9 Population density (share urban, suburban, rural) 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 24 1.10 Birth rate 0 3 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 17 1.11 Marriage rate 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1.12 Divorce rate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1.13 Household formation rate 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 2.1 Number of jobs (share retail, service, tech, agriculture, other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 14 2.2 rate of job creation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 12 2.3 rate of Job loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 2.4 rate of Job migration within region 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3.1 Amount of space that is developed residential, developed other, developable, protected 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 27 3.2 Rate of conversion to / from developable 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 25 3.3 Rate of conversation to / from protected 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 19 4.1 Number of lane miles for freeways, arterials and other highways 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 16 4.2 Total route miles for rail and bus transit 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 2 1 3 2 29 5.1 Telework share 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 2 2 14 5.2 Online shopping share of retail sales 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 12 5.3 Rate of economic growth 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 17 5.4 Adoption of smartphone or mobile devices with internet access 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 8 5.5 Market penetration of self-driving vehicles 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 6.1 Price of gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 6.2 Total miles of walk and bike paths 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 6.3 Introduction of carbon tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 6.4 Attitudes favoring clean energy and environmental protection 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 9 0 22 6 21 9 6 14 14 9 14 10 5 7 21 26 20 16 11 10 11 19 10 16 7 38 5 3 11 6 24 26 Cross-Impact Matrix How strong is the DIRECT IMPACT of a column descriptor on the future development of a line descriptor? Please use a scale from 0 to 3: 0: no impact 1: low impact 2: moderate impact 3: strong impact Figure E-1. Cross-impact matrix.