National Academies Press: OpenBook

Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand (2014)

Chapter: Appendix E - Tool for Identifying Driving Forces in the Scenarios

« Previous: Appendix D - Method and Findings from Demonstrating and Testing Impacts 2050
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E - Tool for Identifying Driving Forces in the Scenarios." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22321.
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Page 121
Suggested Citation:"Appendix E - Tool for Identifying Driving Forces in the Scenarios." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22321.
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120 A P P E N D I X E Tool for Identifying Driving Forces in the Scenarios

Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 T o t a l p o p u l a t i o n A g e s t r u c t u r e H o u s e h o l d s t r u c t u r e ( m a r r i e d o r n o t , k i d s o r n o t ) P e r c e n t f o r e i g n b o r n R a c e / e t h n i c i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n I n c o m e d i s t i b u t i o n A g i n g r a t e W o r k f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n P o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y B i r t h r a t e M a r r i a g e r a t e D i v o r c e r a t e H o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n r a t e N u m b e r o f j o b s j o b c r e a t i o n j o b l o s s j o b m i g r a t i o n a m o u n t o f s p a c e r a t e o f c o n v e r s i o n t o / f r o m d e v e l o p a b l e r a t e o f c o n v e r s i o n t o / f r o m p r o t e c t e d N u m b e r o f l a n e m i l e s f o r f r e e w a y s T o t a l r o u t e m i l e s f o r r a i l a n d b u s t e l e w o r k s h a r e O n l i n e s h o p p i n g R a t e o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h s m a r t p h o n e a d o p t i o n s e l f d r i v i n g v e h i c l e s c o s t o f g a s w a l k a n d b i k e p a t h s c a r b o n t a x a t t i t u d e s 1.1 Total population 3 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1.2 Age structure 0 0 2 2 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1.3 Household structure (married or not, kids or not) 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 3 3 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 1.4 Percent of foreign born in each race group 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1.5 Race/ethnicity distribution 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1.6 Income distribution 0 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 1.7 Aging rate 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 1.8 Workforce participation 0 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 1.9 Population density (share urban, suburban, rural) 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 24 1.10 Birth rate 0 3 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 17 1.11 Marriage rate 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1.12 Divorce rate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1.13 Household formation rate 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 2.1 Number of jobs (share retail, service, tech, agriculture, other) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 14 2.2 rate of job creation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 12 2.3 rate of Job loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 2.4 rate of Job migration within region 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3.1 Amount of space that is developed residential, developed other, developable, protected 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 27 3.2 Rate of conversion to / from developable 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 25 3.3 Rate of conversation to / from protected 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 19 4.1 Number of lane miles for freeways, arterials and other highways 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 16 4.2 Total route miles for rail and bus transit 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 2 1 3 2 29 5.1 Telework share 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 2 2 14 5.2 Online shopping share of retail sales 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 12 5.3 Rate of economic growth 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 17 5.4 Adoption of smartphone or mobile devices with internet access 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 8 5.5 Market penetration of self-driving vehicles 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 6.1 Price of gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 6.2 Total miles of walk and bike paths 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 6.3 Introduction of carbon tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 6.4 Attitudes favoring clean energy and environmental protection 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 9 0 22 6 21 9 6 14 14 9 14 10 5 7 21 26 20 16 11 10 11 19 10 16 7 38 5 3 11 6 24 26 Cross-Impact Matrix How strong is the DIRECT IMPACT of a column descriptor on the future development of a line descriptor? Please use a scale from 0 to 3: 0: no impact 1: low impact 2: moderate impact 3: strong impact Figure E-1. Cross-impact matrix.

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TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand presents the results of research on how socio-demographic changes over the next 30 to 50 years may impact travel demand at the regional level. It is accompanied by a software tool, Impacts 2050, designed to support the long-term planning activities of transportation agencies.

The print version of the report contains a CD-ROM that includes Impacts 2050, the software user’s guide, a PowerPoint presentation about the research, and the research brief. The CD-ROM is also available for download from TRB’s website as an ISO image. Links to the ISO image and instructions for burning a CD-ROM from an ISO image are provided below. This is a large file and may take some time to download using a high-speed connection.

Help on Burning an .ISO CD-ROM Image

Download the .ISO CD-ROM Image*

NCHRP Report 750, Volume 6 is part of a series of reports being produced by NCHRP Project 20-83: Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry. Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for state departments of transportation (DOTs); AASHTO's aim for the research series is to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends.

Other volumes in this series currently available include:

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner’s Guide and Research Report

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 3: Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies

• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future

*CD-ROM Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

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