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1 1.1 Research Overview and Objectives It would not be shocking to anyone that the United States in 2050 will look much different from how it looks today. But what is remarkable is how much different the United States will be compared with rival nations in Europe and Asia. According to the most conservative estimates, the current U.S. population will increase by roughly 100 million by 2050. The vast majority of this growth will be in racial minorities, particularly Asians, Hispanics, and mixed races. In comparison, other advanced countries are projected to actually experi- ence population declines. While the elderly will dominate in many countries, Americaâs population of working-age and young people is expected to con- tinue to grow, so that in 2050 only about one-quarter of the U.S. population will be older than 60 compared with nearly 40 percent in Europe. Together with shifting energy resource conditions and accelerating technology innovations in vehicles and infrastructure, the structure and social characteristics of the U.S. population will be among the principal factors dictating virtually everything relating to or affecting transportation in the coming decades. In addition to broad consequences (e.g., demand, the nature and use of supply, investment decisions for new infrastructure, planning and forecasting, and all levels of policy development and policy decisions), there will be personal consequences. How will people travel? Where will they choose to live? Where will they work? How will they access the goods, services, people, and information that make for a meaningful life? It is almost inevitable that the socio-demographics of a society as diverse as the United States will shift over the next 30 to 50 years. How socio-demographics will affect travel behavior in the long term is uncertain. In the face of this uncertainty, a key challenge for transportation decision makers is to understand how the population may change over time, and how socio-demographic changes will affect the ways people travel and the kinds of transportation modes and infrastruc- ture that will be needed. This type of understanding is essential to prepare for and conduct strategic long-range plan- ning. State departments of transportation (DOTs) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) are required by law to produce a long-range plan, for up to 20 years into the future with an update every four years, as a condition of receiving federal funding. While the produc- tion of a specific plan is an important output of this process, the most beneficial outcomes are the policies and strategies that attempt to balance current needs with making responsible, cost-effective, and sustainable long-term decisions. The activities related to long-range plan- ning are continuous and involve a variety of calculations that often stretch the capabilities of the organization. A key challenge is that state DOTs and MPOs often are not in control of the C H A P T E R 1 Introduction Impacts 2050 Research Products ⢠Research Brief ⢠Impacts 2050 Tool ⢠User Guide ⢠PowerPoint Presentation
2 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand factors that define the assumptions that go into the long-range plans. Such assumptions often focus on socio-demographic factors, and the way socio-demographic trends may play out in the future is uncertain. Uncertainty exists in the inputs, in model relationships, and in the variety of relationships that could be important. Thus, the resulting plans too often are reactive to current transportation challenges, instead of being proactive in adapting to future uncertainties. The research team believes this is caused by a critical gap in the existing suite of analytical tools used in the long-range planning process. This study addresses future uncertainty by providing transportation planners and decision makers with an increased awareness of how socio-demographic trends may affect long-range transportation conditions or needs. Additionally, recognizing the limitations of traditional plan- ning models, the research team developed a tool to support transportation agencies in their long-term planning activities to enhance decision making. The tool, Impacts 2050, incorporates two elements: scenarios representing visions of possible futures and a system dynamics model for investigating many different plausible futures. Impacts 2050 was designed to enable users to examine the relationship between socio-demographics and travel demand in yearly increments through 2050. It enables dynamic scenario analysis. The resulting information will enable users to account for these trends in plans and forecasts and to examine policies or other interventions that may offset these trends. An agency may in some cases wish to offset trends and in other cases enhance trends. Using Impacts 2050 requires a change in strategic thinking, in which the output of the forecast is a less important ingredient to a long-range plan than is the process of interacting with the model to produce many different scenarios. What becomes important in this environment is asking the right questions, and thus, supporting a change in the way transportation agencies perform long-term planning. 1.2 Organization of the Report This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 discusses the uncertainties that are inherent in the transportation planning process, and introduces Impacts 2050 as a tool to improve a transportation agencyâs ability to handle uncertainties and make more informed decisions. Chapter 3 summarizes eight socio-demographic trends that transportation agencies are already facing that will impact travel demand over the next 30 to 50 years, and that served as the basis for developing a scenario framework. Chapter 4 discusses the rationale for the joint scenario/modeling approach applied in this research project. It introduces two key elements: scenario planning and system dynamic models. Chapter 5 details the process by which four scenarios that describe plausible socio-demographic futures were developed. It briefly summarizes the four scenarios, and Appendix A provides detailed scenario descriptions. Chapter 6 describes a new management and decision support tool, Impacts 2050. Informa- tion is presented on the structure of the system dynamics model that powers the tool. Detailed documentation on the model structure can be found in Appendix B and also in the Userâs Guide that accompanies Impacts 2050. This chapter also presents and discusses model output across the four scenarios for the five regions that served as test sites for the toolâs development. Detailed statistical output is provided in Appendix C.
Introduction 3 Chapter 7 presents an approach for identifying and monitoring leading indicators, or early warning signs, that can help in preparing for change. Driving forces in the scenarios are iden- tified and used to select leading indicators. A spreadsheet that served as a tool for identifying driving forces in the scenarios is presented in Appendix E. Chapter 8 provides an assessment of how Impacts 2050 may be used by state DOTs, MPOs, and other transportation agencies to assist in their long-range planning processes. It provides a set of recommendations on the strategic responses agencies may take to best cope with the types of uncertainty depicted by the scenarios. Chapter 9 concludes with several broad observations drawn from each chapter of the report that support and highlight the fact that to effectively deal with the uncertain future in long-term planning, transportation decision makers must make a paradigm shift from planning strategically to thinking strategically. In addition, this chapter includes recommendations from the research team on next steps for enhancing the management and decision support tool Impacts 2050.
