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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment: State of the Practice. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22544.
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H A Z A R D O U S M A T E R I A L S C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M HMCRP REPORT 12 Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment: State of the Practice Visual Risk Technologies, inc. Nashville, TN Subscriber Categories Administration and Management • Freight Transportation • Security and Emergencies TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2013 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The safety, security, and environmental concerns associated with transportation of hazardous materials are growing in number and complexity. Hazardous materials are substances that are flammable, explosive, or toxic or that, if released, produce effects that would threaten human safety, health, the environment, or property. Hazardous materials are moved throughout the country by all modes of freight transportation, including ships, trucks, trains, airplanes, and pipelines. The private sector and a diverse mix of government agencies at all levels are responsible for controlling the transport of hazardous materials and for ensuring that hazardous cargoes move without incident. This shared goal has spurred the creation of several venues for organizations with related interests to work together in preventing and responding to hazardous materials incidents. The freight transportation and chemical industries; government regulatory and enforcement agencies at the federal and state levels; and local emergency planners and responders routinely share information, resources, and expertise. Nevertheless, there has been a long- standing gap in the system for conducting hazardous materials safety and security research. Industry organizations and government agencies have their own research programs to support their mission needs. Collaborative research to address shared problems takes place occasionally, but mostly occurs on an ad hoc basis. Acknowledging this gap in 2004, the U.S. DOT Office of Hazardous Materials Safety, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, the Federal Railroad Administration, and the U.S. Coast Guard pooled their resources for a study. Under the auspices of the Transportation Research Board (TRB), the National Research Council of the National Academies appointed a committee to examine the feasibility of creating a cooperative research program for hazardous materials transportation, similar in concept to the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and the Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). The committee concluded, in TRB Special Report 283: Cooperative Research for Hazardous Materials Transportation: Defining the Need, Converging on Solutions, that the need for cooperative research in this field is significant and growing, and the committee recommended establishing an ongoing program of cooperative research. In 2005, based in part on the findings of that report, the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) authorized the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) to contract with the National Academy of Sciences to conduct the Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program (HMCRP). The HMCRP is intended to complement other U.S. DOT research programs as a stakeholder-driven, problem-solving program, researching real-world, day-to-day operational issues with near- to mid- term time frames. Published reports of the HAZARDOUS MATERIALS COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America HMCRP REPORT 12 Project HM-12 ISSN 2150-4849 ISBN: 978-0-309-28342-7 Library of Congress Control Number 2013943893 © 2013 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, RITA, or PHMSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not- for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR HMCRP REPORT 12 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Stephan A. Parker, Senior Program Officer Megha Khadka, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor HMCRP PROJECT 12 PANEL Stephanie A. King, Palo Alto, CA (Chair) Lisa Bendixen, ICF International, Fairfax, VA Cheryl A. “Cherry” Burke, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, MI Frederick J. “Fred” Cowie, Helena, MT Robert E. Fronczak, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC Ronald J. Duych, RITA Liaison Francisco Gonzalez III, FRA Liaison James Simmons, PHMSA Liaison Kin F. Wong, PHMSA Liaison George R. Famini, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Liaison Richard Pain, TRB Liaison

F O R E W O R D By Stephan A. Parker Staff Officer Transportation Research Board HMCRP Report 12: Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment: State of the Prac- tice documents the current practice for hazardous materials transportation risk assessment by government agencies and the private sector. The report will be of interest to shippers, carriers, government agencies, responders, risk managers/insurers, and researchers. Hazardous materials transportation risk assessments are often designed for different purposes and used in different ways by government agencies and the private sector. There are a number of models/methodologies used in each sector, from simplified to extremely complex, that have varying data needs and make varying degrees of assumptions. Different assessment tools and approaches may be applicable to only specific transportation sce- narios, activities, or purposes. In addition, many of the assessments address single modes of transportation, and there are few published methods to adequately compare risk across modes or in combinations of modes. There is a need for the government sector to better understand how the private sector performs and uses risk assessments and risk management and for the private sector to appreciate government needs in regulating hazardous materials in transport. Under HMCRP Project 12, Visual Risk Technologies, Inc., was asked to prepare a report that (a) identifies existing tools, methodologies, approaches, and key sources of data for assessing hazardous materials transportation risks in the public and private sectors; (b) characterizes the capabilities and limitations of each; (c) identifies where there are signifi- cant gaps and needs in the available tools and approaches; and (d) recommends paths for- ward. The first phase of the project captured the status of the current practice of hazard- ous materials transportation risk assessment, including current uses, existing models, and available data sources. The second phase of the project focused on synthesizing the research compiled in Phase I and determining where gaps exist in available tools, techniques, and data. Phase II also included presenting a path forward for addressing these gaps and sup- porting better risk assessments in the future. The project included a literature review and extensive interviews with hazardous materi- als transportation risk assessment stakeholders. In addition, an online survey was used to expand the collection of information to a wider group of stakeholders. The results of these information gathering steps were summarized, and the current uses of risk assessments for each stakeholder were reported according to the following categories: (1) current uses, users, modes, and decision making; (2) models, tools, methodologies, approaches; (3) key sources of data; (4) assumptions, limitations, biases, and availability; (5) updates; (6) risk communication; (7) desired improvements; and (8) implementation barriers.

The key risk assessment approaches involving models or methodologies with sufficient documentation or available information were further characterized in a set of decision matrices. The matrices are designed to facilitate selection of a model for application to a hazardous materials transportation stakeholder’s particular needs. A PowerPoint presentation that describes the entire project is available on the TRB web- site at http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/169158.aspx.

C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 4 Section 1 Introduction 5 Section 2 Description of the Research Approach 5 2.1 Literature Review 5 2.1.1 Identification 5 2.1.2 Compilation 6 2.2 Interview and Online Survey Procedures 7 Section 3 Current Uses 7 3.1 General Literature Results 7 3.1.1 New Modeling Techniques and Approaches 8 3.1.2 Data-Driven Risk Assessment 8 3.1.3 The Use of Risk Analysis and Route Choice 8 3.1.4 Economic Risk Analysis 8 3.2 Carriers 8 3.2.1 Association of American Railroads (AAR) 9 3.2.2 Class I Railroad 10 3.3 Shippers 10 3.3.1 Large Chemical Manufacturer #1 11 3.3.2 Large Chemical Manufacturer #2 12 3.3.3 Institute of Makers of Explosives 13 3.3.4 Large Chemical/Plastics Manufacturer 14 3.4 Federal Agencies 14 3.4.1 Department of Energy 16 3.4.2 Department of Transportation 20 3.4.3 Department of Homeland Security 22 3.5 State Agencies 22 3.5.1 California Emergency Management Agency 22 3.5.2 State Transportation Department 23 3.6 International Organizations 23 3.6.1 Transport Dangerous Goods (Transport Canada) 23 3.6.2 Foreign Security Agency 24 3.6.3 Public Foreign Research Organization 25 3.7 Consulting and Research Organizations 25 3.7.1 ABS Consulting 26 3.7.2 Booz Allen Hamilton 26 3.7.3 Engineering Systems Inc. (ESI) 26 3.7.4 Private Consulting Firm 27 3.7.5 Private Consultant

27 3.7.6 National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) 27 3.7.7 National Pipeline Safety and Operations Research Center 28 3.7.8 Security Analysis and Risk Management Association (SARMA) 29 3.7.9 The Kentucky Transportation Center (KTC) at the University of Kentucky 29 3.7.10 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) 31 Section 4 Characterization 31 4.1 Decision Matrices 32 4.1.1 Mode Choice 34 4.1.2 Route Choice 39 4.1.3 Facility Siting 41 4.1.4 Packaging Selection 43 4.1.5 Alternate Product Selection 44 4.1.6 Emergency Management Resource Planning 46 4.1.7 Operational Changes 49 4.1.8 Security Measure Identification, Prioritization, and Evaluation 51 4.1.9 Security Risk Situational Awareness 52 4.2 Model Matrices 53 4.2.1 Boston Hazmat Route Evaluation 54 4.2.2 CCPS Guidelines: Qualitative Risk Assessment Process 55 4.2.3 CCPS Guidelines: Quantitative Risk Assessment Process 56 4.2.4 CCPS Guidelines: Risk Prioritization Process 57 4.2.5 CCPS Guidelines: Security Risk Prioritization Process 58 4.2.6 CCPS Guidelines: Security Vulnerability Assessment Process 59 4.2.7 CCPS Guidelines: Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment Process 60 4.2.8 Chemical Manufacturer Risk Assessment Framework 61 4.2.9 Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) Process 62 4.2.10 Fedtrak 63 4.2.11 GeoCTA 64 4.2.12 IME Safety Analysis for Risk (IMESAFR) 65 4.2.13 Pipeline Risk Management Manual Risk Assessment Method 66 4.2.14 RADTRAN 67 4.2.15 Rail Corridor Risk Management System (RCRMS) 69 4.2.16 Readiness and Resiliency Assessment System 69 4.2.17 Risk-Based Preventative Radiological/Nuclear Detection Resource Allocation (CREATE Model) 70 4.2.18 TRACC 71 4.2.19 Transportation Routing Analysis GIS (TRAGIS) 72 4.2.20 Transportation Sector Security Risk Assessment (TSSRA) 73 4.2.21 Trucking and Hazmat Trucking Risk Assessment (THTRA) 74 4.2.22 UIUC Tank Car Risk Analysis 76 Section 5 Analysis and Recommendations 76 5.1 General Analysis 76 5.1.1 Types of Decisions 78 5.1.2 Model Components 82 5.1.3 Interpreting and Applying Results

83 5.2 Gaps 83 5.2.1 Gaps in Models for Decisions 83 5.2.2 Gaps in Data for Models 85 5.2.3 Gaps in Model, Data, or Results Availability 86 5.3 Recommended Paths Forward 86 5.3.1 Recommendations for Model Development 87 5.3.2 Recommendations for Data Development 87 5.3.3 Recommendations for Communication and Data/Model Sharing 88 Appendix A Literature Review Results 99 Appendix B List of Organizations Contacted 102 Appendix C Phone Scripts and Email Templates 104 Appendix D Interview Questionnaire 109 Appendix E Online Survey Invitation 110 Appendix F On-Line Survey 111 Acronyms and Abbreviations Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.

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TRB’s Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program (HMCRP) Report 12: Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Assessment: State of the Practice documents the current practice for hazardous materials transportation risk assessment by government agencies and the private sector.

A PowerPoint presentation that describes the entire project is available.

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