Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook (2013)

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T R A N S I T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M TCRP REPORT 161 TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2013 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration in cooperation with the Transit Development Corporation Subscriber Categories Administration and Management • Public Transportation Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, inc. Vienna, VA w i th lsc transportation consultants, inc. Colorado Springs, CO and erickson consulting, llc Evergreen, CO

TCRP REPORT 161 Project B-36 ISSN 1073-4872 ISBN 978-0-309-25889-0 Library of Congress Control Number 2013930785 © 2013 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Transit Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the Transit Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The nation’s growth and the need to meet mobility, environmental, and energy objectives place demands on public transit systems. Current systems, some of which are old and in need of upgrading, must expand service area, increase service frequency, and improve efficiency to serve these demands. Research is necessary to solve operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to intro- duce innovations into the transit industry. The Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the transit industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for TCRP was originally identified in TRB Special Report 213—Research for Public Transit: New Directions, published in 1987 and based on a study sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration—now the Federal Transit Admin istration (FTA). A report by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), Transportation 2000, also recognized the need for local, problem- solving research. TCRP, modeled after the longstanding and success- ful National Cooperative Highway Research Program, undertakes research and other technical activities in response to the needs of tran- sit service providers. The scope of TCRP includes a variety of transit research fields including planning, service configuration, equipment, facilities, operations, human resources, maintenance, policy, and administrative practices. TCRP was established under FTA sponsorship in July 1992. Pro- posed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, TCRP was autho- rized as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). On May 13, 1992, a memorandum agreement out- lining TCRP operating procedures was executed by the three cooper- ating organizations: FTA, the National Academies, acting through the Transportation Research Board (TRB); and the Transit Development Corporation, Inc. (TDC), a nonprofit educational and research orga- nization established by APTA. TDC is responsible for forming the independent governing board, designated as the TCRP Oversight and Project Selection (TOPS) Committee. Research problem statements for TCRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the TOPS Committee to formulate the research program by identi- fying the highest priority projects. As part of the evaluation, the TOPS Committee defines funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the Transportation Research Board. The panels prepare project state- ments (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide techni- cal guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooperative research pro- grams since 1962. As in other TRB activ ities, TCRP project panels serve voluntarily without com pensation. Because research cannot have the desired impact if products fail to reach the intended audience, special emphasis is placed on dissemi- nating TCRP results to the intended end users of the research: tran- sit agencies, service providers, and suppliers. TRB provides a series of research reports, syntheses of transit practice, and other support- ing material developed by TCRP research. APTA will arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by urban and rural transit industry practitioners. The TCRP provides a forum where transit agencies can cooperatively address common operational problems. The TCRP results support and complement other ongoing transit research and training programs. Published reports of the TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was conducted under TCRP Project B-36 by Vanasse Hangen Brustlin (VHB). Mr. Frank Spielberg of VHB was the Principal Investigator. The other contributors to the project and authors of this report were Mr. Corey Pitts and Ms. Jenny Goldschmidt of VHB; Mr. Albert T. Stoddard, Ms. Tangerine Almeida, Mr. Robert Jones, and Mr. Gordon Shaw of LSC Transportation Consultants (LSC); and Jeanne Erickson of Erickson Consulting. CRP STAFF FOR TCRP REPORT 161 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Stephan A. Parker, Senior Program Officer Megha Khadka, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Hilary Freer, Senior Editor TCRP PROJECT B-36 PANEL Field of Service Configuration Donna Shaunesey, JAUNT, Inc., Charlottesille, VA (Chair) Steven A. Billings, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City, MO Rebecca P. Cherry, Cherry Consulting of the Carolinas, Inc., Charlotte, NC Edward Griffin, MV Transportation, Inc., Ocala, FL Richard Schultze, Kettering, OH Lisa Staes, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL Janet Weaver, Star, ID M. Nazrul Islam, FTA Liaison Rachel Beyerle, Easter Seals, Inc., Liaison Patricia Monahan, National Rural Transit Assistance Program Liaison Charles A. Rutkowski, Community Transportation Association of America Liaison Kimberly Fisher, TRB Liaison

TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook presents step-by-step procedures for quanti- fying the need for passenger transportation services and the demand that is likely to be generated if passenger transportation services are provided. These procedures will be of interest to planners in rural areas and operators of rural passenger transportation systems. This report is supplemented by two products: an Excel spreadsheet that can be used to implement the procedures included in the workbook; and a methodology report, TCRP Web-Only Document 58, which documents (1) how the research team developed the need and demand estimation methods, (2) the findings of the analyses, and (3) recommenda- tions for functions to be used in estimation of need and demand. The Excel spreadsheet and TCRP Web-Only Document 58 can be accessed by searching the TRB website for TCRP Report 161. This research, conducted under TCRP Project B-36 by a research team led by Vanasse Hangen Brustlin (VHB), resulted in methods to estimate need and demand for rural passenger transportation. Need can be estimated according to (1) the number of people likely to need passenger transportation and (2) the number of trips required to pro- vide individuals without personal vehicles with a level of mobility equal to those having access to personal vehicles. Demand is addressed according to four markets: (1) general public rural passenger transportation, (2) passenger transportation specifically related to social services or other programs, (3) travel on fixed-route services in micropolitan areas, and (4) travel on commuter services from rural counties to urban centers. The research team used data from the Rural National Transit Database (2006, 2009, and 2010), the National Household Transportation Survey (2001 and 2009), the American Community Survey (various years) and the Longitudinal Employment-Household Dynam- ics dataset as well as data on services operated and ridership on those services provided by over 200 individuals who participated in workshops held in a dozen states in 2010 and 2011 to develop the procedures. The workbook will be of interest to planners, service providers, state transportation program managers, consultants, trade and professional organizations, and other stakeholders involved in transportation planning. F O R E W O R D By Stephan A. Parker Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

1 Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Purpose of Workbook 1 Organization of Workbook 2 Data Collection 4 Definitions 6 Chapter 2 Need 6 Population Segments 13 Mobility Gap 18 Chapter 3 Demand 18 General Public Rural 24 Program (Sponsored) Trips 26 Small City Fixed-Route 28 Commuters to Urban Centers 31 Chapter 4 Data Sources 32 Appendix A Retrieving Data from the American Community Survey (ACS) 39 Appendix B Step-by-Step Instructions for the Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet Tool 70 Appendix C Suggested Guidelines for Data Collection C O N T E N T S Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.

QUICK START GUIDE This workbook provides step-by-step instrucons for developing forecasts of the need and demand for passenger transportaon in rural communies. The data used in developing these forecasts come from many sources. The following table has space to enter data about public transportaon service characteriscs and community characteriscs of your area. These data will be required for some of the calculaons included in this workbook. Not every calculaon in this workbook requires all the data listed below. This page is provided to give you a quick start by highlighng some key data used in esmang need and demand. These are not intended to be all the data required to complete the esmates included as part of this workbook. Please read the workbook thoroughly and assemble all the data needed from published sources or the internet before applying the methods. Service Characteris cs Service Area Populaon Service Area (square miles) Vehicle-Miles per Month per Year Vehicle-Hours per Month per Year 1-Way Trips Served per Month per Year Community Characteriscs Transit Service Area (square miles) College/University Enrollment (for each in the Service Area) Base Year ( ) Forecast Year ( ) List of Social-Service Agencies Providing Transportaon List of Social-Service Agencies Requiring Transportaon