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ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, and was conducted in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, Transit Development Corporation, or AOC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 1 Table of Contents SECTION 1. OVERVIEW 3 SECTION 2. PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY 5 FUTURE FREIGHT FLOW SYMPOSIUM 5 STAKEHOLDERS SURVEY 11 SECTION 3. ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES 13 SNAPSHOT SCENARIOS 13 IMPACT MATRICES / INFLUENCE CURVES 15 ANALYSIS OF SNAPSHOT SCENARIOS 15 STAKEHOLDER SURVEY 19 SECTION 4. NEXT STEPS 30 APPENDIX 1 â FUTURE FREIGHT FLOWS AGENDA AND ATTENDEE LIST 31 APPENDIX 2. SUMMARIES OF THOUGHT LEADER PRESENTATIONS 35 SYMPOSIUM INTRODUCTION - DR. CHRIS CAPLICE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, MIT CTL 35 A NATION OF FLORIDAS: AGING, CHANGING LIFESTYLES & THE FUTURE OF FREIGHT - DR. JOSEPH COUGHLIN, DIRECTOR, MIT AGELAB 36 AFTER THE STORM: NEW CHALLENGES FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2010-2030 - SARA JOHNSON, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT 40 PUBLIC POLICY AND FREIGHT - DAVID LUBEROFF, HARVARD UNIVERSITY KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT 43 TRANSPORTING BITS AND ATOMS - PROFESSOR NEIL GERSHENFELD, MIT CENTER FOR ATOMS AND BITS 47 THE NEW AGE OF SENSING - PROF. SANJAY SARMA, MIT MECHANICAL ENGINEERING 51 WIRED FOR INNOVATION: HOW IT IS RESHAPING THE ECONOMY - PROF. ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON, MIT SLOAN 55 MEASURING AND MANAGING SUSTAINABILITY - PROF. JONATHAN JOHNSON, THE SUSTAINABILITY CONSORTIUM 58 ATTENDEE COMMENTS AND DISCUSSIONS 61 APPENDIX 3 â SNAPSHOT SCENARIO OUTPUT 65 AGING OF THE US POPULATION 65 INCREASE IN GLOBAL TRADE 65 RISING POWER OF EMERGING MARKETS 66 INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGULATION 66 RISE OF PROTECTIONISM 67 NEW TECHNOLOGY: PERSONAL FABRICATION 67 NEW TECHNOLOGY: THE SENSEABLE NETWORK 68 INCREASE IN SUSTAINABILITY REGULATIONS 68 INCREASE IN SUSTAINABILITY CUSTOMER DEMAND 69 RISE IN GLOBAL SECURITY CONCERNS 69 RISE IN COMMODITY PRICES AND AVAILABILITY 70 ADDITIONAL POINTS OF ENTRY OPEN UP 70
Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 2 APPENDIX 4. DESCRIPTION OF INTERACTIVE WORKSHOP SESSION 71 SNAPSHOT: NEW TECHNOLOGY: PERSONAL FABRICATION 71 SNAPSHOT: RISING PROTECTIONISM 72 APPENDIX 5. STAKEHOLDER SURVEY 74
