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Final Report - Guidelines for Preparing Peak Period and Operational Profiles i TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE - INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Definitions .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Background ............................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3. Benefits .................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.4. Complements to Other ACRP Research ...................................................................................... 4 1.5. Organization of Report ...................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER TWO: BACKGROUND AND KEY DEFINITIONS ....................................................................... 5 2.1. Annual Forecasts of Activity ............................................................................................................ 5 2.1.1. Definitions of Activity ................................................................................................................ 5 2.1.2. Forecasting Annual Activity .................................................................................................... 5 2.1.3. Application of Annual Forecasts to Operational Profiles and Peak Period Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2. Design Day .............................................................................................................................................. 6 2.3. Design Day Profiles ............................................................................................................................. 8 2.4. Design Day Schedules ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.5. Integrated Noise Model (INM) Input Profiles ....................................................................... 11 2.6. Peak Period ......................................................................................................................................... 12 2.7. Types of Planning ............................................................................................................................. 13 2.7.1. Airside Planning ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.7.2. Terminal Planning ................................................................................................................... 14 2.7.3. Landside Planning ................................................................................................................... 14 2.7.4. Noise Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 14 2.7.5. Air Quality Analysis ................................................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER THREE â DESCRIPTION OF STUDY EFFORT ........................................................................ 15 3.1. Task 1: Literature Review and Summary of Current Practices ...................................... 15 3.2. Task 2: Interviews ............................................................................................................................ 15 3.3. Task 3: Airport Surveys .................................................................................................................. 16 3.4. Task 4: Collect Inputs for Default Factors ............................................................................... 17 3.5. Task 5: Provide Preview of Contents of Guidebook and Toolbox.................................. 17 3.6. Task 6: Issues, Options and Recommendations.................................................................... 17 3.7. Task 7: Complete Draft Guidebook and Toolbox ................................................................. 18 3.8. Task 8: Field Test the Guidebook ............................................................................................... 18 3.9. Task 9: Working ACRP Session ................................................................................................... 18 3.10. Task 10: Final Deliverable ............................................................................................................. 18 CHAPTER FOUR â SUMMARY OF CURRENT PRACTICES ..................................................................... 19 4.1. Current Peak Period and Operational Profile Forecasting Practices ........................... 19 4.1.1 Design Day .................................................................................................................................. 19 4.1.2 Design Day Profiles ................................................................................................................. 21 4.1.3 Design Day Schedules ............................................................................................................. 21 4.1.4. Integrated Noise Model (INM) Input Profiles ............................................................... 23
Final Report - Guidelines for Preparing Peak Period and Operational Profiles ii 4.1.5. Peak Period Estimates ........................................................................................................... 24 4.2 Planning Issues .................................................................................................................................. 25 4.2.1 General Planning Issues ........................................................................................................ 25 4.2.2 Airfield Planning ...................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.3 Terminal Planning ................................................................................................................... 25 4.2.4 Landside Planning ................................................................................................................... 26 4.2.5 Uncertainty ................................................................................................................................. 26 4.3. Environmental Issues ..................................................................................................................... 27 4.3.1 General Environmental Issues ............................................................................................ 27 4.3.2 Noise Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 27 4.3.3 Air Quality Analysis ................................................................................................................. 28 4.4. Upcoming Developments .............................................................................................................. 28 CHAPTER FIVE: OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH FINDINGS......................................................................... 29 5.1 Passenger Distribution Factors ................................................................................................... 29 5.1.1 Day-of-the-Week Factors ...................................................................................................... 30 5.1.2 Time-of-Day Factors ............................................................................................................... 30 5.1.3 O&D Distribution Factors ..................................................................................................... 31 5.2 Peak Spreading .................................................................................................................................. 31 5.2.1 Peak Month Spreading ........................................................................................................... 31 5.2.2 Peak Hour Spreading .............................................................................................................. 31 5.3 Issues in the Distribution of Day and Night Operations .................................................... 32 5.4. Resident/Visitor Distributions .................................................................................................... 32 5.5. Relationship of Peak Periods to Facility Categories ............................................................ 33 5.6. Lead and Lag Times ......................................................................................................................... 33 5.7. Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 34 CHAPTER SIX: GUIDEBOOK AND TOOLBOX DOCUMENTATION ..................................................... 36 6.1 Organization of Guidebook ........................................................................................................... 36 6.2 Organization of Toolbox ................................................................................................................ 36 6.3. Supplementary Information ......................................................................................................... 37 6.3.1. Preparation of Design Day Forecasts ............................................................................... 37 6.3.2. Preparation of Design Day Profiles ................................................................................... 38 6.3.3. Preparation of Design Day Flight Schedules ................................................................. 41 6.3.4. Preparation of Day/Night Fleet Mix ................................................................................. 51 6.3.5. Preparation of Peak Period Forecasts ............................................................................. 51 CHAPTER SEVEN: VALIDATION .................................................................................................................... 60 7.1. Field Tests ........................................................................................................................................... 60 7.1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................ 60 7.1.2. Field Test Process .................................................................................................................... 61 7.1.3. Findings ....................................................................................................................................... 61 7.1.4. Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 65 7.2. In-House Testing ............................................................................................................................... 65 7.2.1 Historical Test ........................................................................................................................... 66 7.2.2. Comparison with Existing Forecast .................................................................................. 69
Final Report - Guidelines for Preparing Peak Period and Operational Profiles iii 7.3. Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 72 CHAPTER EIGHT: RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................... 73 8.1. Suggested Implementation Program ........................................................................................ 73 8.2 Suggestions for Future Research ................................................................................................ 73 LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit 2.1: Relationship between Annual Activity Forecasts and Design Day Forecasts 7 Exhibit 2.2: Relationship between Design Day Forecasts and Design Day Profiles ............ 9 Exhibit 2.3: Relationship between Design Day Forecasts and Design Day Schedules .... 10 Exhibit 2.4: Relationship between Average Annual Day Forecasts and INM Input Forecasts ............................................................................................................................... 11 Exhibit 2.5: Relationship between Design Day Profiles and Schedules and Peak Period Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 13 Exhibit 3.1: Task 2 Interviews .............................................................................................................. 16 Exhibit 4.1: Typical Elements in Design Day Schedule ................................................................ 22 Exhibit 5.1: Suggested Peak Period Definitions by Facility Type ............................................ 35 Exhibit 5.2: Range of Lead and Lag Times by Facility Type....................................................... 36 Exhibit 6.1: Process for Estimating Existing Design Day Derivative Profile of Passengers ................................................................................................................................................... 41 Exhibit 6.2: Process for Estimating Future Design Day Derivative Profile of Passengers ................................................................................................................................................... 42 Exhibit 6.3: Process for Estimating Future Design Day Gated Flight Schedule Estimating and Allocating Destination Market Share .......................................... 44 Exhibit 6.4: Process for Estimating Future Design Day Gated Flight Schedule Aircraft Operations............................................................................................................ 46 Exhibit 6.5: Process for Estimating Future Design Day Gated Flight Schedule Assignment of Passengers to Flights .......................................................................... 49 Exhibit 6.6: Process for Estimating Existing Peak Period Aircraft Operations (Defined Independently of Design Day) ................................................................... 54 Exhibit 6.7: Process for Estimating Future Peak Period Aircraft Operations (Defined Independently of Design Day) ................................................................... 55 Exhibit 6.8: Process for Estimating Existing Peak Period Passenger Enplanements (Defined Independently of Design Day) ................................................................... 57 Exhibit 6.9: Process for Estimating Future Peak Period Passenger Enplanements (Defined Independently of Design Day) ................................................................... 60 Exhibit 7.1: SWF Design Day Profile Output .................................................................................... 65 Exhibit 7.2: Comparison of Design Day Flight Schedule and Operations Toolbox Results: Historical Test ..................................................................................................................... 68
Final Report - Guidelines for Preparing Peak Period and Operational Profiles iv Exhibit 7.3: Comparison of Design Day Flight Schedule and Passenger Toolbox Results: Historical Test ..................................................................................................................... 69 Exhibit 7.4: Comparison of Design Day Flight Schedule and Operations Toolbox Results: Forecast Test ....................................................................................................................... 71 Exhibit 7.5: Comparison of Design Day Flight Schedule and Passenger Toolbox Results: Forecast Test ....................................................................................................................... 72 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A: Literature Review Appendix B: Recommended Questions for Task 2 Interviewees Appendix C: Survey Cover Letter and Definitions, and Survey Questionnaire Appendix D: Summary of Airport Survey Responses Appendix E: Peak Day and Hour Analysis Appendix F: Use of Peak Day and Hour Default Factors Appendix G: Peak Month Passenger Activity Appendix H: Trends in Peak Hour Intensity Appendix I: Scheduled and Actual Estimates of Day/Night Distribution Appendix J: Trends in Day/Night Distribution Appendix K: Resident Visitor Distribution by Time of Day and Impact on Ground Transportation Appendix L: Toolbox Documentation Appendix M: Hourly Distributions of Aircraft Operations Appendix N: Hourly Distributions of International Aircraft Operations Appendix O: Relationship Between Aircraft Operations and Number of Gates Appendix P: Distribution of Passenger Airport Arrival Times Appendix Q: New Flight Analysis Appendix R: Recommended Quality Control Checks when Preparing Design Day Schedules Appendix S: Glossary
