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N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP REPORT 735 Long-Distance and Rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting Models Robert G. Schiffer Cambridge SyStematiCS, inC. Tallahassee, FL Subscriber Categories Highways ⢠Planning and Forecasting TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2012 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective approach to the solution of many problems facing highway administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of Transportation. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was requested by the Association to administer the research program because of the Boardâs recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those who are in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments and by committees of AASHTO. Each year, specific areas of research needs to be included in the program are proposed to the National Research Council and the Board by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these needs are defined by the Board, and qualified research agencies are selected from those that have submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Research Council and the Transportation Research Board. The needs for highway research are many, and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other highway research programs. Published reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America NCHRP REPORT 735 Project 08-84 ISSN 0077-5614 ISBN 978-0-309-25879-1 Library of Congress Control Number 2012955564 © 2012 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The report was prepared by a team led by Rob Schiffer of Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Significant con- tributors included Liang Long, Quan Yuan, Sheldon Harrison, Sarah McKinley, Dan Beagan, Tom Rossi, Bruce Spear, Michelle Bina, and Mike Peacock of Cambridge Systematics. Nancy McGuckin, Independent Consultant and Stacey Bricka of the Texas Transportation Institute provided expertise from the perspective of travel behavior research. Billy Bachman of Geostats provided information related to surveys using Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Lei Zhang of the University of Maryland provided a summary of Bluetooth and other technologies being used in long-distance travel surveys. Wade White and Todd Brauer of the Whitehouse Group, Inc. provided additional document review and commentary. CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 735 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Nanda Srinivasan, Senior Program Officer Charlotte Thomas, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Hilary Freer, Editor NCHRP PROJECT 08-84 PANEL Field of Transportation PlanningâArea of Forecasting Keith Killough, Arizona DOT, Phoenix, AZ (Chair) Jaesup Lee, Virginia DOT, Richmond, VA Clinton Bench, Massachusetts DOT, Boston, MA Greg Giaimo, Ohio DOT, Columbus, OH Leta F. Huntsinger, Parsons Brinkerhoff, Raleigh, NC Jianming Ma, Texas DOT, Austin, TX Douglas MacIvor, California DOT, Sacramento, CA Frank Southworth, ORNL/Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA Sarah Sun, FHWA Liaison Kimberly Fisher, TRB Liaison
By Nanda Srinivasan Staff Officer Transportation Research Board This guidebook provides transferable parameters for both personal long-distance travel and rural travel for statewide travel models, including applications and limitations. The guide is a supplement to NCHRP Report 716: Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques, which focused on urban travel. The report will be of broad interest to travel demand practitioners at state departments of transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), and consultants developing multistate and national travel forecasting models, statewide and intercity pas- senger models, and large regional models, especially those covering areas of low-density rural development patterns and undeveloped lands. Areas with a significant proportion of tourist travel will also find this report to be useful in quantifying long-distance travel patterns. In the last 15 to 20 years, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) have undertaken the development of statewide transportation planning demand models. These models are often used to help formulate policies, prioritize projects, and identify the potential revenue streams from toll road and other major transportation investments. Some of these models can provide input to urban models because of their ability to capture market segments not well represented in urban area forecasting tools. Because these models play such a significant role in the planning process, careful and thoughtful evaluation of how well statewide models reproduce existing travel markets, as well as their sensitivity to major market segments and behavioral responses, is an increasingly important consideration. Most of the statewide models are built on practices originally developed for urbanized area forecasting. In the context of statewide forecasting, passenger- or person-based rural trip making and long-distance travel constitute important market segments, much more so than in urban models. Information describing these markets, and how they vary from state to state, is sparse and many states do not have the resources to initiate original data collection to develop a set of model parameters. Yet these same states have a pressing need to have confidence in reasonable data for personal rural and long-distance travel. This research addressed the applicability of recent national datasets to statewide analysis and analysed the transferability of parameters among statewide models. The research was conducted by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Information was gathered via all available national datasets, including the National Household Travel Survey, the American Travel Survey, and a database of statewide models. The guidebook will be of broad interest to the travel forecasting community at large. F O R E W O R D
1 Summary 11 Chapter 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background 12 1.2 Research Approach and Work Plan 12 1.3 Guidebook Organization 14 Chapter 2 Long-Distance and Rural Area Data Sources 15 2.1 National Travel Surveys 23 2.2 Statewide Household Travel Surveys 29 2.3 Supplemental Sources of Rural and Long-Distance Data 37 Chapter 3 Transferability and Typologies 37 3.1 Conditions Conducive to Transferability 38 3.2 Parameters to Be Considered for Transferability 39 3.3 Temporal Analysis Considerations of Transferability 39 3.4 Other Aspects of Trip Definition for Transferability 40 3.5 Process for Developing Transferable Parameters 42 3.6 Limitations of Datasets 42 3.7 Minimum Amount of Local Data Required 43 3.8 Long-Distance and Rural Typology Considerations 47 Chapter 4 Trip Generation Parameters and Benchmark Statistics 47 4.1 Long-Distance and Rural Trip Generation Benchmark Statistics from Statewide Models and Other Sources 53 4.2 Analytical Approach to Estimating Long-Distance and Rural Trip Generation Parameters and Benchmarks 62 4.3 Long-Distance Trip Generation Model Parameters 62 4.4 Rural Trip Generation Model Parameters 68 Chapter 5 Trip Distribution Parameters and Benchmark Statistics 68 5.1 Long-Distance and Rural Trip Distribution Benchmark Statistics from Statewide Models and Other Sources 70 5.2 Analytical Approach to Estimating Long-Distance and Rural Trip Distribution Parameters and Benchmarks 70 5.3 Long-Distance Trip Distribution Model Parameters 72 5.4 Rural Trip Distribution Model Parameters 75 Chapter 6 Auto Occupancy and Mode Choice Parameters 75 6.1 Long-Distance and Rural Mode Choice Benchmark Statistics from Statewide Models and Other Sources 77 6.2 Analytical Approach to Estimating Long-Distance and Rural Mode Choice Parameters and Benchmarks 78 6.3 Mode Choice: Long-Distance Auto Occupancy Rates 79 6.4 Mode Choice: Rural Auto Occupancy Rates C O N T E N T S
81 Chapter 7 Comparisons and Conclusions 81 7.1 Comparisons 82 7.2 Conclusions 84 References A-1 Appendix A Recent Examples of Long-Distance Travel Demand Studies (ORNL, UMD) B-1 Appendix B Travel Behavior Data from Other Countries C-1 Appendix C Modal-Based Travel Data D-1 Appendix D Other Demographic and Origin-Destination Data E-1 Appendix E Urban Versus Rural Truck Trips F-1 Appendix F Review of Statewide Models Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.
