Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan (2013)

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Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan S2-C20-RW-2

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2013 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* OFFICERS Chair: Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia Vice Chair: Kirk T. Steudle, Director, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing Executive Director: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board MEMBERS Victoria A. Arroyo, Executive Director, Georgetown Climate Center, and Visiting Professor, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. Scott E. Bennett, Director, Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department, Little Rock William A. V. Clark, Professor of Geography (emeritus) and Professor of Statistics (emeritus), Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles James M. Crites, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport, Texas Paula J. C. Hammond, Secretary, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia John S. Halikowski, Director, Arizona Department of Transportation, Phoenix Michael W. Hancock, Secretary, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort Susan Hanson, Distinguished University Professor Emerita, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts Steve Heminger, Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland Chris T. Hendrickson, Duquesne Light Professor of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Jeffrey D. Holt, Managing Director, Bank of Montreal Capital Markets, and Chairman, Utah Transportation Commission, Huntsville, Utah Kevin L. Keith, Missouri Department of Transportation, Jefferson City Gary P. LaGrange, President and CEO, Port of New Orleans, Louisiana Michael P. Lewis, Director, Rhode Island Department of Transportation, Providence Joan McDonald, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany Donald A. Osterberg, Senior Vice President, Safety and Security, Schneider National, Inc., Green Bay, Wisconsin Steve Palmer, Vice President of Transportation, Lowe’s Companies, Inc., Mooresville, North Carolina Sandra Rosenbloom, Director, Innovation in Infrastructure, The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. (Past Chair, 2012) Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri Kumares C. Sinha, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana Daniel Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies; University of California, Davis Gary C. Thomas, President and Executive Director, Dallas Area Rapid Transit, Dallas, Texas Phillip A. Washington, General Manager, Regional Transportation District, Denver, Colorado EX OFFICO MEMBERS Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, Georgia Anne S. Ferro, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. John T. Gray II, Senior Vice President, Policy and Economics, Association of American Railroads, Washington, D.C. John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C. Michael P. Huerta, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Joung Ho Lee, Associate Director for Finance and Business Development, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C. David T. Matsuda, Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Michael P. Melaniphy, President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, D.C. Victor M. Mendez, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Robert J. Papp (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Cynthia L. Quarterman, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Peter M. Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation David L. Strickland, Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Polly Trottenberg, Under Secretary for Policy, U.S. Department of Transportation Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. General, U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, D.C. Barry R. Wallerstein, Executive Officer, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, California Gregory D. Winfree, Acting Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation * Membership as of January 2013.

THE SECOND STRATEGIC HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Keith M. Chase and Patrick Anater Gannett Fleming, Inc. Thomas Phelan Eng-Wong, Taub and Associates TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Washington, D.C. 2013 www.TRB.org Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan SHRP 2 Report S2-C20-RW-2

SUBSCRIBER CATEGORIES Data and Information Technology Freight Transportation Highways Planning and Forecasting

THE SECOND STRATEGIC HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM America’s highway system is critical to meeting the mobility and economic needs of local communities, regions, and the nation. Developments in research and technology—such as advanced materials, communications technology, new data collection technologies, and human factors science—offer a new opportunity to improve the safety and reliability of this important national resource. Breakthrough resolution of significant transportation problems, however, requires concentrated resources over a short time frame. Reflecting this need, the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) has an intense, large-scale focus, integrates mul- tiple fields of research and technology, and is fundamentally different from the broad, mission-oriented, discipline-based research programs that have been the mainstay of the high- way research industry for half a century. The need for SHRP 2 was identified in TRB Special Report 260: Strategic Highway Research: Saving Lives, Reducing Congestion, Improving Quality of Life, pub- lished in 2001 and based on a study sponsored by Congress through the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Cen- tury (TEA-21). SHRP 2, modeled after the first Strategic Highway Research Program, is a focused, time-constrained, management-driven program designed to complement existing highway research programs. SHRP 2 focuses on applied research in four areas: Safety, to prevent or reduce the severity of highway crashes by understanding driver behavior; Renewal, to address the aging infrastruc- ture through rapid design and construction methods that cause minimal disruptions and produce lasting facilities; Reliability, to reduce congestion through incident reduc- tion, management, response, and mitigation; and Capacity, to integrate mobility, economic, environmental, and com- munity needs in the planning and designing of new trans- portation capacity. SHRP 2 was authorized in August 2005 as part of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The program is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) on behalf of the National Research Council (NRC). SHRP 2 is conducted under a memorandum of understanding among the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Academy of Sci- ences, parent organization of TRB and NRC. The program provides for competitive, merit-based selection of research contractors; independent research project oversight; and dissemination of research results. SHRP 2 Report S2-C20-RW-2 ISBN: 978-0-309-12943-5 © 2013 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from pub- lishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. The second Strategic Highway Research Program grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, or FHWA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing material in this document for educa- tional and not-for-profit purposes will give appropriate ac- knowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from SHRP 2. Note: SHRP 2 report numbers convey the program, focus area, project number, and publication format. Report num- bers ending in “w” are published as web documents only. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical committee selected to moni- tor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical commit- tee and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the re- search and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the pro- gram sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Acad- emies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the second Strategic Highway Research Program do not en- dorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufac turers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essen tial to the object of the report. SHRP 2 REPORTS Available by subscription and through the TRB online bookstore: www.TRB.org/bookstore Contact the TRB Business Office: 202.334.3213 More information about SHRP 2: www.TRB.org/SHRP 2

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished schol- ars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and techni- cal matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initia- tive, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sci- ences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdis- ciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transpor- tation departments, federal agencies, including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

SHRP 2 STAFF Ann M. Brach, Director Stephen J. Andrle, Deputy Director Neil J. Pedersen, Deputy Director, Implementation and Communications James Bryant, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer, Safety JoAnn Coleman, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity and Reliability Eduardo Cusicanqui, Financial Officer Walter Diewald, Senior Program Officer, Safety Jerry DiMaggio, Implementation Coordinator Shantia Douglas, Senior Financial Assistant Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer, Safety Carol Ford, Senior Program Assistant, Renewal and Safety Elizabeth Forney, Assistant Editor Jo Allen Gause, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Rosalind Gomes, Accounting/Financial Assistant Abdelmename Hedhli, Visiting Professional James Hedlund, Special Consultant, Safety Coordination Alyssa Hernandez, Reports Coordinator Ralph Hessian, Special Consultant, Capacity and Reliability Andy Horosko, Special Consultant, Safety Field Data Collection William Hyman, Senior Program Officer, Reliability Michael Marazzi, Senior Editorial Assistant Linda Mason, Communications Officer Reena Mathews, Senior Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Matthew Miller, Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Michael Miller, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity and Reliability David Plazak, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Monica Starnes, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Onno Tool, Visiting Professional Dean Trackman, Managing Editor Connie Woldu, Administrative Coordinator Patrick Zelinski, Communications/Media Associate

vi This work was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration in cooperation with the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Offi cials. It was con- ducted in the second Strategic Highway Research Program, which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. The project was man- aged by David Plazak, Senior Program Offi cer for SHRP 2 Capacity. The research described in this report was performed by Gannett Fleming, Inc., sup- ported by Arizona State University; Avant IMC; E-Squared Engineering; Eng-Wong, Taub and Associates; Global Quality and Engineering; Strategy Solutions; the Univer- sity of Texas at Austin; Whitehouse Group; and Wordsworth Communications. Keith Chase of Gannett Fleming was the principal investigator. The other authors are Patrick Anater of Gannett Fleming and Thomas Phelan of Eng-Wong, Taub and Associates. The authors acknowledge the contributions to the research from Chandra Bhat of the University of Texas at Austin, Todd Brauer and Wade White of Whitehouse Group, James Brock of Avant IMC, Richard Easley of E-Squared Engineering, Julia Johnson of Wordsworth Communications, and Ram Pendyala of Arizona State University. The research team acknowledges with appreciation the time and efforts of the TRB Visualization Committee, as well as the many stakeholders who were involved in outreach meetings and participated in surveys. Special appreciation is extended to those who submitted papers for consideration and presentation at the 2010 Innova- tions in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

vii FOREWORD Freight traffi c has been growing faster than passenger traffi c on the nation’s high- way network. As a result, freight bottlenecks have begun to develop at various points throughout the network. These bottlenecks have historically been near ports and other intermodal facilities. However, travel forecasts are beginning to show the effects of growing freight traffi c on congestion on urban freeways, urban arterials, and some cross-country routes in rural areas. Being able to understand freight fl ows and forecast freight demand is taking on greater and greater importance. The second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) initiated two projects (Capacity Projects C15 and C20) designed to improve the nation’s ability to plan for increased freight-related traffi c and to begin to address the growing issue of freight bottlenecks. Capacity Project C20, which was the fi rst one, assessed the state of the practice of freight demand modeling and freight data as they relate to highway capacity planning and program- ming. This assessment concludes that the state of freight demand modeling has been relatively stable during the past several decades, unlike demand modeling for passenger travel, which is advancing toward activity-based modeling. The state of the practice in freight data has also been relatively stable; however, promising developments based on new information technologies may greatly improve transportation planners’ access to freight data. Examples include global positioning system data from trucks and (potentially) private supply chain data that could be aggregated for public sector planning purposes. Accelerated innovation is needed so that freight demand modeling and freight data can better serve the needs of public sector decision making regarding highway capacity investments. The C20 Strategic Plan suggests strategic research initiatives that could begin to improve the practice of freight demand modeling and freight data. These are grouped into themes such as knowledge gaps, modeling, data, and data visualization. Knowledge gaps are a key issue because the perspectives and business planning time frames of the private and public sectors are so divergent with respect to freight. The David J. Plazak SHRP 2 Senior Program Offi cer, Capacity

viii private sector focuses on optimizing short-term supply chains and operations, but the public sector focuses on making investments that may take a decade or more to put in place. Bridging this knowledge gap is essential to making progress in freight capacity planning. Visualization technologies are promising for helping freight decision makers and stakeholders understand each other’s perspectives. Since the responsibility for gathering freight data and conducting freight demand modeling is spread among a large number of agencies and organizations, the C20 Strategic Plan puts forward a potential model for organizing cooperation to encourage innovation and moving forward. One model for advancing the state of the practice in freight demand modeling and freight data is to hold innovation symposia. A pilot effort was initiated in September 2010 as part of the SHRP 2 C20 research project.