Integration of Analysis Methods and Development of Analysis Plan (2012)

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The Second S T R A T E G I C H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2012 www.TRB.org REPORT S2-S02-RW-1 Integration of Analysis Methods and Development of Analysis Plan Linda n. BoyLe University of Washington Shauna haLLmark Iowa State University John d. Lee University of Wisconsin danieL V. mcGehee University of Iowa daVid m. neyenS University of Iowa nichoLaS J. Ward Montana State University

Subscriber Categories Highways Safety and Human Factors

The Second Strategic Highway Research Program America’s highway system is critical to meeting the mobility and economic needs of local communities, regions, and the nation. Developments in research and technology—such as advanced materials, communications technology, new data collection tech- nologies, and human factors science—offer a new opportunity to improve the safety and reliability of this important national resource. Breakthrough resolution of significant transportation problems, however, requires concentrated resources over a short time frame. Reflecting this need, the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) has an intense, large-scale focus, integrates multiple fields of research and technology, and is fundamentally different from the broad, mission-oriented, dis- cipline-based research programs that have been the mainstay of the highway research industry for half a century. The need for SHRP 2 was identified in TRB Special Report 260: Strategic Highway Research: Saving Lives, Reducing Congestion, Improving Quality of Life, published in 2001 and based on a study sponsored by Congress through the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). SHRP 2, modeled after the first Strategic Highway Research Program, is a focused, time- constrained, management-driven program designed to comple- ment existing highway research programs. SHRP 2 focuses on applied research in four areas: Safety, to prevent or reduce the severity of highway crashes by understanding driver behavior; Renewal, to address the aging infrastructure through rapid design and construction methods that cause minimal disrup- tions and produce lasting facilities; Reliability, to reduce con- gestion through incident reduction, management, response, and mitigation; and Capacity, to integrate mobility, economic, envi- ronmental, and community needs in the planning and designing of new transportation capacity. SHRP 2 was authorized in August 2005 as part of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The program is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) on behalf of the National Research Council (NRC). SHRP 2 is conducted under a memorandum of understanding among the American Associa- tion of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Academy of Sciences, parent organization of TRB and NRC. The program provides for competitive, merit-based selection of research contractors; independent research project oversight; and dissemination of research results. SHRP 2 Report S2-S02-RW-1 ISBN: 978-0-309-12910-7 © 2012 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copyright Information Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copy- right to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. The second Strategic Highway Research Program grants permission to repro- duce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Per- mission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, or FHWA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing material in this document for educational and not-for-profit purposes will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from SHRP 2. Note: SHRP 2 report numbers convey the program, focus area, project number, and publication format. Report numbers ending in “w” are published as web documents only. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical committee and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the second Strategic Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. SHRP 2 Reports Available by subscription and through the TRB online bookstore: www.TRB.org/bookstore Contact the TRB Business Office: 202-334-3213 More information about SHRP 2: www.TRB.org/SHRP2

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisci- plinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transporta- tion, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

SHRP 2 STAFF Ann M. Brach, Director Stephen Andrle, Deputy Director Kizzy Anderson, Senior Program Assistant, Implementation James Bryant, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Mark Bush, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer, Safety JoAnn Coleman, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity Eduardo Cusicanqui, Finance Officer Walter Diewald, Senior Program Officer, Safety Jerry DiMaggio, Implementation Coordinator Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer, Safety Carol Ford, Senior Program Assistant, Safety Elizabeth Forney, Assistant Editor Jo Allen Gause, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Abdelmename Hedhli, Visiting Professional James Hedlund, Special Consultant, Safety Coordination Ralph Hessian, Visiting Professional Andy Horosko, Special Consultant, Safety Field Data Collection William Hyman, Senior Program Officer, Reliability Linda Mason, Communications Officer Michael Miller, Senior Program Assistant, Reliability Gummada Murthy, Senior Program Officer, Reliability David Plazak, Senior Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Monica Starnes, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Noreen Stevenson-Fenwick, Senior Program Assistant, Renewal Charles Taylor, Special Consultant, Renewal Onno Tool, Visiting Professional Dean Trackman, Managing Editor Pat Williams, Administrative Assistant Connie Woldu, Administrative Coordinator Patrick Zelinski, Communications Specialist ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration in cooperation with the American Asso- ciation of State Highway and Transportation Officials. It was conducted in the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. The project was managed by Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer for SHRP 2 Safety. The research reported on herein was performed by the University of Iowa, University of Washington, Uni- versity of Wisconsin, Iowa State University, and Montana State University. Daniel McGehee, University of Iowa, was the principal investigator. The authors thank Teresa Lopes, technical editor, University of Iowa Public Policy Center, for her support in manuscript editing and preparation.

F O R E W O R D Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer, Safety This report provides an analysis plan for the SHRP 2 Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS). High-priority research questions were identified in Phase I. Phase II identified the critical elements and issues to address in the analysis of the SHRP 2 NDS data and provided sample work plans for five high-priority research questions. The resulting analysis plan will guide the development of the subsequent Safety Project S08, Analysis of In-Vehicle Field Study Data and Countermeasure Implications, and assist researchers planning to use the SHRP 2 NDS data. The objective of the SHRP 2 NDS is to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities by prevent- ing or reducing the severity of collisions. Every 1% reduction in crashes will prevent 330 deaths and about $2 billion in annual medical expenses and other losses from these crashes. Moreover, crashes are a leading cause of nonrecurring congestion. Collision prevention can reduce delay, fuel consumption, and emissions. The focus of the NDS is to provide objec- tive information on the role of driver behavior and performance in traffic collisions and the interrelationship of the driver with vehicle, roadway, and environmental factors. This project began with a review of the four S01 projects, Development of Analysis Meth- ods Using Recent Data, and Safety Project S05, Design of the In-Vehicle Driving Behavior and Crash Risk Study. The initial focus was on the fundamental challenges facing research- ers wanting to use this relatively new source of safety information, the SHRP 2 NDS. These challenges include the size and complexity of the database; the continuous nature of the data; sampling, defining, and finding events of interest; developing an exposure reference; reduction of video data; linking video data with roadway data; the use of collision surro- gates; and many others. The five top research questions identified in this report are based on the decision crite- ria developed in Phase I. Summaries of Phase I of the project are included as appendices. More than 400 research issues are listed. These questions were articulated and accumulated throughout the development of the SHRP 2 Safety program from committees, the annual SHRP 2 Safety Symposia, and the early SHRP 2 projects. The Phase I work describes the process for combining these issues into global research questions and establishing priorities. The report also provides a summary of Phase II of the project and the resulting five sample work plans to illustrate the application of these critical elements in the analysis plans for the top-priority research questions.

C O N T E N T S 1 Executive Summary 3 CHAPTER 1 Introduction 4 CHAPTER 2 Review of Analytical Methods Proposed in SHRP 2 Safety Project S01 4 University of Minnesota 4 University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 5 Pennsylvania State University Transportation Institute 6 Iowa State University Center for Transportation Research and Education 6 Summary of Safety Project S01 7 CHAPTER 3 Overview of Phase I: Analysis Plan 8 CHAPTER 4 Overview of Phase II: Formulating the High-Priority Research Topics 10 CHAPTER 5 Work Plan Requirements 10 Defining a Specific Research Question 10 Value and Limits of Naturalistic Driving Data for the Proposed Research Question 11 Considerations for Data Analysis Plans 19 Documentation of Results and Data Warehousing 19 Expected Outcome 21 CHAPTER 6 Examples of Summary Work Plans 21 Overview of Work Plans 22 Example Work Plan 1: Lane-Departure Crashes 28 Example Work Plan 2: Intersections and Crash Likelihood 33 Example Work Plan 3: Driver Distraction and Crash Likelihood 36 Example Work Plan 4: Driver Fatigue and Crash Likelihood 38 Example Work Plan 5: Influence of Driver Impairment Caused by Alcohol on Crash Likelihood 41 CHAPTER 7 Recommendations for Project S08 41 Additional Data Reduction 41 Timing of Release of Work Plans and Expected Outcomes 41 Considerations for Project Costs 42 References 45 Appendix A. Summary of Phase I of SHRP 2 Project S02 56 Appendix B. Global Research Question Priorities 70 Appendix C. Research Question Analyses