Evaluation of Data Needs, Crash Surrogates, and Analysis Methods to Address Lane Departure Research Questions Using Naturalistic Driving Study Data (2011)

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T R A N S P O R T A T I O N R E S E A R C H B O A R D WASHINGTON, D.C. 2011 www.TRB.org The Second S T R A T E G I C H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M REPORT S2-S01E-RW-1 Evaluation of Data Needs, Crash Surrogates, and Analysis Methods to Address Lane Departure Research Questions Using Naturalistic Driving Study Data SHAUNA HALLMARK Institute for Transportation, Iowa State University YU-YI HSU Department of Statistics, Iowa State University LINDA BOYLE Seamans Center for the Engineering Arts and Sciences, University of Iowa ALICIA CARRIQUIRY Department of Statistics, Iowa State University YE TIAN Department of Statistics, Iowa State University ABHISEK MUDGAL Institute for Transportation, Iowa State University

Subscriber Categories Highways Safety and Human Factors

The Second Strategic Highway Research Program America’s highway system is critical to meeting the mobility and economic needs of local communities, regions, and the nation. Developments in research and technology—such as advanced materials, communications technology, new data collection technologies, and human factors science—offer a new opportu- nity to improve the safety and reliability of this important national resource. Breakthrough resolution of significant trans- portation problems, however, requires concentrated resources over a short time frame. Reflecting this need, the second Strate- gic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) has an intense, large- scale focus, integrates multiple fields of research and technology, and is fundamentally different from the broad, mission- oriented, discipline-based research programs that have been the mainstay of the highway research industry for half a century. The need for SHRP 2 was identified in TRB Special Report 260: Strategic Highway Research: Saving Lives, Reducing Congestion, Improving Quality of Life, published in 2001 and based on a study sponsored by Congress through the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). SHRP 2, modeled after the first Strate- gic Highway Research Program, is a focused, time-constrained, management-driven program designed to complement existing highway research programs. SHRP 2 focuses on applied research in four areas: Safety, to prevent or reduce the severity of highway crashes by understanding driver behavior; Renewal, to address the aging infrastructure through rapid design and construction methods that cause minimal disruptions and produce lasting facilities; Reliability, to reduce congestion through incident reduction, management, response, and mitigation; and Capacity, to integrate mobility, economic, environmental, and community needs in the planning and designing of new transportation capacity. SHRP 2 was authorized in August 2005 as part of the Safe, Ac- countable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The program is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) on behalf of the Na- tional Research Council (NRC). SHRP 2 is conducted under a memorandum of understanding among the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Academy of Sciences, parent organization of TRB and NRC. The program provides for competitive, merit-based selection of re- search contractors; independent research project oversight; and dissemination of research results. SHRP 2 Report S2-S01E-RW-1 ISBN: 978-0-309-12901-5 © 2011 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copyright Information Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copy- right to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. The second Strategic Highway Research Program grants permission to repro- duce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Per- mission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, or FHWA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing material in this document for educational and not-for-profit purposes will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the mate- rial, request permission from SHRP 2. Note: SHRP 2 report numbers convey the program, focus area, project number, and publication format. Report numbers ending in “w” are published as web documents only. Notice The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical committee and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the second Strategic Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. SHRP 2 Reports Available by subscription and through the TRB online bookstore: www.TRB.org/bookstore Contact the TRB Business Office: 202-334-3213 More information about SHRP 2: www.TRB.org/SHRP 2

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisci- plinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transporta- tion, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

SHRP 2 STAFF Neil F. Hawks, Director Ann M. Brach, Deputy Director Kizzy Anderson, Senior Program Assistant, Implementation Stephen Andrle, Chief Program Officer, Capacity James Bryant, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Mark Bush, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer, Safety JoAnn Coleman, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity Eduardo Cusicanqui, Finance Officer Walter Diewald, Senior Program Officer, Safety Jerry DiMaggio, Implementation Coordinator Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer, Safety Carol Ford, Senior Program Assistant, Safety Elizabeth Forney, Assistant Editor Jo Allen Gause, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Abdelmename Hedhli, Visiting Professional Ralph Hessian, Visiting Professional Andy Horosko, Special Consultant, Safety Field Data Collection William Hyman, Senior Program Officer, Reliability Linda Mason, Communications Officer Michael Miller, Senior Program Assistant, Reliability Gummada Murthy, Senior Program Officer, Reliability David Plazak, Senior Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Monica Starnes, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Noreen Stevenson-Fenwick, Senior Program Assistant, Renewal Charles Taylor, Special Consultant, Renewal Dean Trackman, Managing Editor Pat Williams, Administrative Assistant Connie Woldu, Administrative Coordinator Patrick Zelinski, Communications Specialist ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was sponsored by Federal Highway Administration in cooperation with the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. It was conducted in the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. The project was managed by Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer for SHRP 2 Safety. The research team would like to thank the Midwest Transportation Consortium (MTC), a Tier 1 uni- versity transportation center, for partial funding of three students to participate in this project. We would also like to thank the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) and Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) for providing naturalistic driving study data and for their assistance in working with the data. In addition, the team thanks the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) for providing roadway and crash data. The results and conclusions deriving from the use of this data represent the work and opinions of the Iowa State University research team and do not reflect the opinions or endorsement of UMTRI, VTTI, or MDOT.

F O R E W O R D Charles Fay, SHRP 2 Senior Program Officer, Safety A large component of the safety research undertaken in the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) is aimed at reducing injuries and fatalities that result from high- way crashes. Through a naturalistic driving study (NDS) involving more than 3,000 volunteer drivers, SHRP 2 expects to learn more about how individual driver behavior interacts with vehicle and roadway characteristics. In anticipation of the large volume of data to be collected during the SHRP 2 NDS, several projects were conducted to demonstrate that it is possible to use existing NDS data and data from other sources to further the understanding of the risk fac- tors associated with road crashes. More specifically, the four projects conducted under the title Development of Analysis Methods Using Recent Data examined the statistical relationship between surrogate measures of collisions (conflicts, critical incidents, near collisions, or road- side encroachment) and actual collisions. This report presents the results of one of these proj- ects, undertaken by the Institute for Transportation, Iowa State University. It documents the second phase of a two-phase project under SHRP 2 Safety Project S01E. The primary objective of this work was to investigate the feasibility of using NDS data to increase our understanding of lane departure crashes. Research questions specific to lane departure were identified, and data requirements to answer these research questions were determined. Methodologies for selecting and applying crash surrogates specific to lane depar- ture were evaluated. Finally, four analytical approaches were investigated: data mining using classification and regression tree analysis; simple odds ratio and logistic regression; logistic regression for correlated data that accounts for repeated sampling among observations; and time series analysis. The report discusses the advantages and limitations for each of these approaches. It will provide useful information for analysts of the SHRP 2 NDS data.

C O N T E N T S 1 Executive Summary 2 Identification of Lane Departure Research Questions and Necessary Factors 2 Identification of Data Necessary to Answer Research Questions 3 Methodological Approach to Selecting Lane Departure Crash Surrogates 4 Exploration of Analytical Approaches to Answer Lane Departure Research Questions 6 CHAPTER 1 Background 6 Introduction 7 Scope of Research 8 Organization of This Report 10 CHAPTER 2 Identifying Final Lane Departure Research Questions and Relevant Factors 10 Relevant Data Elements Identified in Existing Literature 17 Summarized List of Factors 17 Research Questions 22 CHAPTER 3 Data Sets Used 22 University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Field Operational Test In-Vehicle Data 23 Michigan Geographic Framework and Sufficiency Report 24 Transportation Crash Master 24 Aerial Imagery 24 VTTI Naturalistic Driving Study from Data Request 25 VTTI Naturalistic Driving Study from the Internet 25 SHRP 2 Full-Scale Instrumented Vehicle Study 25 Summary of Terms Used to Describe Data 27 CHAPTER 4 Roadway, Driver, Environmental, and Vehicle Data Needs and Limitations to Address Lane Departures Using Naturalistic Driving Study Data 27 Background 28 Review of Roadway, Environmental, and Vehicle Data Elements Available in Existing Naturalistic Driving Study Data 39 Review of Planned Data Collection for Full In-Vehicle Naturalistic Driving Study 41 Review of Planned Data Elements from Mobile Mapping for Full-Scale Naturalistic Driving Study 50 Summary

53 CHAPTER 5 Defining and Evaluating Lane Departure Crash Surrogate Thresholds Using Naturalistic Driving Study Data 53 Introduction 54 Background on Crash Surrogates 55 Summary of Crash Surrogates Used for Lane Departures 57 Selection of Lane Departure Surrogates 64 Evaluating Incident Outcome with UMTRI Data 65 Identifying Lane Departure Incidents Using Existing Data Sets 72 Determining Rollover Potential 75 Summary 76 CHAPTER 6 Analytical Tools and Initial Analysis of Lane Departure Research Questions 76 Objective 76 Audience 77 Data Availability in Full-Scale Naturalistic Driving Study to Answer Lane Departure Research Questions 78 Data Segmentation Approaches 78 General Information about Data Reduction 84 Analysis Approach 1: Data Mining 88 Analysis Approach 2: Odds Ratio and Logistic Regression 93 Analysis Approach 3: Logistic Regression for Correlated Data 96 Analysis Approach 4: Time Series Analysis 100 Summary and Conclusions 102 CHAPTER 7 Summary 104 References 109 Appendix A. Methodology for Extraction of Data Elements from the UMTRI Naturalistic Driving Study Data Set 122 Appendix B. Methodology for Extraction of Data Elements from the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute Naturalistic Driving Study Data Set 124 Appendix C. Assessment of Availability of Roadway Data Elements in the SHRP 2 Naturalistic Driving Study Data Acquisition System