National Academies Press: OpenBook
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23146.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23146.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23146.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23146.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23146.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23146.
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TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2007 www.TRB.org T R A N S I T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M TCRP REPORT 119 Research sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration in cooperation with the Transit Development Corporation Subject Areas Planning and Administration • Public Transit Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation David Koffman NELSON\NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES INC. San Francisco, CA David Lewis HDR/HLB DECISION ECONOMICS Ottawa, Ontario, Canada David Chia PLANNERS COLLABORATIVE Boston, MA Jon Burkhardt WESTAT Rockville, MD Mark Bradley MARK BRADLEY RESEARCH AND CONSULTING Santa Barbara, CA

TCRP REPORT 119 Project B-28 ISSN 1073-4872 ISBN: 978-0-309-09907-3 Library of Congress Control Number 2007907542 © 2007 Transportation Research Board COPYRIGHT PERMISSION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Transit Cooperative Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the Governing Board’s judgment that the project concerned is appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research Council. The members of the technical advisory panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical panel, they are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, the Transit Development Corporation, or the Federal Transit Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical panel according to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, the Transit Development Corporation, and the Federal Transit Administration (sponsor of the Transit Cooperative Research Program) do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the clarity and completeness of the project reporting. TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The nation’s growth and the need to meet mobility, environmental, and energy objectives place demands on public transit systems. Current systems, some of which are old and in need of upgrading, must expand service area, increase service frequency, and improve efficiency to serve these demands. Research is necessary to solve operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to intro- duce innovations into the transit industry. The Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the transit industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for TCRP was originally identified in TRB Special Report 213—Research for Public Transit: New Directions, published in 1987 and based on a study sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration—now the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). A report by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), Transportation 2000, also recognized the need for local, problem- solving research. TCRP, modeled after the longstanding and success- ful National Cooperative Highway Research Program, undertakes research and other technical activities in response to the needs of tran- sit service providers. The scope of TCRP includes a variety of transit research fields including planning, service configuration, equipment, facilities, operations, human resources, maintenance, policy, and administrative practices. TCRP was established under FTA sponsorship in July 1992. Pro- posed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, TCRP was autho- rized as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). On May 13, 1992, a memorandum agreement out- lining TCRP operating procedures was executed by the three cooper- ating organizations: FTA, the National Academies, acting through the Transportation Research Board (TRB); and the Transit Development Corporation, Inc. (TDC), a nonprofit educational and research orga- nization established by APTA. TDC is responsible for forming the independent governing board, designated as the TCRP Oversight and Project Selection (TOPS) Committee. Research problem statements for TCRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the TOPS Committee to formulate the research program by identi- fying the highest priority projects. As part of the evaluation, the TOPS Committee defines funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the Transportation Research Board. The panels prepare project state- ments (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide techni- cal guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooperative research pro- grams since 1962. As in other TRB activities, TCRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Because research cannot have the desired impact if products fail to reach the intended audience, special emphasis is placed on dissemi- nating TCRP results to the intended end users of the research: tran- sit agencies, service providers, and suppliers. TRB provides a series of research reports, syntheses of transit practice, and other support- ing material developed by TCRP research. APTA will arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by urban and rural transit industry practitioners. The TCRP provides a forum where transit agencies can cooperatively address common operational problems. The TCRP results support and complement other ongoing transit research and training programs. Published reports of the TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

CRP STAFF FOR TCRP REPORT 119 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Dianne S. Schwager, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Andréa Briere, Editor TCRP PROJECT B-28 PANEL Field of Service Configuration J. Barry Barker, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY (Chair) Thomas Adler, Resource Systems Group, Inc., White River Junction, VT Ronald L. Barnes, Veolia Transportation/East Valley RPTA, Mesa, AZ Richard DeRock, Link Transit, Wenatchee, WA Gorman Gilbert, Stillwater, OK Marilyn Golden, Disability Rights Education and Defense Fund, Berkeley, CA Toby Olson, Washington State Governor’s Committee on Disability Issues and Employment, Olympia, WA Erik Sabina, Denver Council of Governments, Denver, CO Rosalyn Simon, Simon & Simon Research and Associates, Inc., Ellicott City, MD Russell Thatcher, TranSystems Corporation, Medford, MA Eric Pihl, FTA Liaison Michael Winter, FTA Liaison Pamela Boswell, APTA Liaison Alan Abeson, Other Liaison Martine A. Micozzi, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research that produced this report was performed under TCRP Project B-28. David Koffman of Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates was the Principal Investigator and principal author of the report. David Lewis of HDR|HLB Decision Economics was senior advisor on econometric methods and demand forecasting and oversaw much of the regression analysis for the project. May Raad-Young of HDR|HLB Decision Economics carried out many of the regression runs. David Chia of Planners Collaborative was responsible for collecting the data from representative systems. Jon Burkhardt of Westat prepared the chap- ter about long-term trends, and Mark Bradley prepared the chapter about options for disaggregate analy- sis. Richard Weiner of Nelson\Nygaard contributed to the early phases of the research, especially a survey of paratransit practitioners. Mapping specialists at Nelson\Nygaard, including Christine Celsor and Anneka Imkamp, carried out the detailed demographic analysis of the representative system service areas. Dianne Schwager, TCRP Project Officer, assembled and directed the Oversight Panel. The Panel, in addition to crafting the project statement that guided the research, provided numerous suggestions that greatly improved the final product. Staff of 28 representative transit systems gave generously of their time, responding to a detailed questionnaire and multiple follow-up requests for data, on which the demand estimation tools are based. C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S

TCRP Report 119: Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation will be of interest to public transportation systems that provide ADA complementary paratransit services; regional, state, and federal agencies that oversee, plan, or finance public transporta- tion; and disability advocates. This report provides a handbook for estimating ADA para- transit demand together with a research report that presents the findings and conclusions of TCRP Project B-28. The handbook is accompanied by an on-line spreadsheet tool, which is available at http://www.trb.org/news/blurb_detail.asp?id=8246. The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) created a requirement for comple- mentary paratransit service for all public transit agencies that provide fixed-route service. Complementary paratransit service is intended to complement the fixed-route service and serve individuals who, because of their disabilities, are unable to use the fixed-route transit system. The methods presented are designed to predict demand for service that complies with legal requirements for level of service as specified by the ADA and implementing reg- ulations. The methods are also designed to exclude demand for services that exceed require- ments for ADA complementary paratransit. The tools presented in this handbook are based on a statistical model that was estimated using data from 28 “representative systems.” The representative systems were selected from an initial list of 88 systems suggested by respondents to a survey about factors that influence the demand for paratransit. All of the representative systems appeared to be in compliance with ADA paratransit requirements regarding capacity constraints and generally provided quality service as of the time data were collected. The tools for estimating the demand for ADA complementary paratransit include (1) an Excel spreadsheet that calculates demand estimates using user-entered data indicating a sys- tem’s policies and service area characteristics (the spreadsheet is available on-line); (2) a series of graphs for determining factors with which demand estimates can be calculated by hand; and (3) elasticities and change factors for quick calculations about small differences between systems and the impacts of small changes to service policies. The research report that accompanies the handbook presents the data sources, preliminary data analysis, model development, long-term trends that may affect paratransit demand, options for disaggregate analysis, and a research agenda. F O R E W O R D By Dianne S. Schwager Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

H-1 Handbook for Estimating ADA Paratransit Demand 1 Chapter 1 Introduction and Highlights 3 Chapter 2 Data Sources 3 Representative Systems 5 Measures and Data Sources 7 Data Collection 9 Chapter 3 Preliminary Data Analysis 9 Summary Statistics 13 Correlation Analysis 18 Chapter 4 Model Development 18 Appropriate Mathematical Forms 22 Testing Possible Models 34 Chapter 5 Long-Term Trends that May Affect ADA Paratransit Demand 34 The Numbers of Persons with Disabilities 37 Geo-Spatial Settlement Patterns 37 The Overall Supply of Transportation Resources 39 Significant Societal Trends 42 Public Policy Considerations 43 Overall Impressions 44 Key Areas for Further Research 45 Chapter 6 Options for Disaggregate Analysis 45 Disaggregation to Counties or Cities 46 A Fully Disaggregate Approach 47 What Would Disaggregate Models Look Like? 50 Modeling Framework—Regional Travel Demand Modeling 51 Data Needs 52 Model Development and Application Requirements 54 Chapter 7 Research Agenda 54 Research Stemming from the Regression Analysis 58 Long-Term Trends 58 Disaggregate Analysis 59 Summary of Potential Research 61 Appendix A Questionnaires 68 Appendix B Representative System Data 78 Appendix C Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) C O N T E N T S

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TRB's Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 119: Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation examines tools and methods designed to predict demand for complementary paratransit service by public transit agencies that comply with legal requirements for level of service as specified by the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) and implementing regulations. The ADA created a requirement for complementary paratransit service for all public transit agencies that provide fixed-route service. Complementary paratransit service is intended to complement the fixed-route service and serve individuals who, because of their disabilities, are unable to use the fixed-route transit system.

The spreadsheet tool that accompanies TCRP Report 119 is available online.

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