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Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue (2007)

Chapter: Chapter Two - Method for Literature Review and Survey

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Page 7
Suggested Citation:"Chapter Two - Method for Literature Review and Survey." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23188.
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Page 7
Page 8
Suggested Citation:"Chapter Two - Method for Literature Review and Survey." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23188.
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Page 8

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This chapter describes the derivation of the information upon which this synthesis was based. The information was gath- ered in two separate tasks: a literature review and a survey of practitioners. The tasks were conducted in parallel, seeking similar information. LITERATURE REVIEW The literature review began with a search for any resources that had the potential for further review. An online search was conducted using traffic resource websites and search engines to gather available electronic resources. This was followed by contact with representatives of different DOTs, toll authori- ties, bond rating agencies, and bond insurance agencies, as well as with academics, to request resources from the search that were not available online. The agency representatives were also asked to provide any other sources of information (e.g., published reports, journals, and articles), as well as the names of any other individuals or organizations that might provide further assistance. The literature review and sources of data focused primar- ily on U.S. practice and experience. However, there are sev- eral international projects that have come into existence within the last 10 years in North America and in Europe. These are relatively state of the practice and provide the added benefit of being completed studies with tangible results (e.g., the Highway 407 Electronic Toll Highway in Canada). In such cases, resources were also compiled based on international project experience. Relevant publications and reports were located by various search methods including, but not limited to, the following five sources of information: • Online Transportation Research Information Service (TRIS); • The state of the practice survey; • Contacts from the DOTs, toll authorities, bond rating agencies, and bond insurance agencies (including mem- bers of the topic panel); • The consultant’s internal library; and • The Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP-L) Digest. TRIS Online is the web-based version of the TRIS database. It provides links to full text and to resources for document 8 delivery or access to documents where such information is available. These may include links to publishers, document delivery services, and/or distributors. It is the largest and most comprehensive source of information on published transporta- tion research on the Web. TRIS Online provides access to more than 500,000 records (at the time of this synthesis) of published transportation research through a user-friendly searchable database. Sources of information found through TRIS included published articles and journals, and academic literature, as well as conference papers and presentations. The state of the practice survey, Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue, asked respondents to forward copies of any reports that might be of interest or relevance to the synthesis. Several of the respondents included traffic and revenue studies, rating agency reports, or earnings reports, which were added to the literature database. Contacts at the DOTs, toll authorities, bond rating agen- cies, and bond insurance agencies provided hard copies or electronic versions of various reports where possible (i.e., feasibility studies, risk assessment studies, traffic and rev- enue studies, etc.). They also provided information as to where online publications could be found. The consultant’s internal library was an important source of reports, including traffic and revenue studies, travel pricing strategies, highway finance theory, and practice research. It was also a secondary source for published articles on practice of toll roads with respect to modeling, revenue, forecasting, and more general topics such as electronic toll and traffic management. Another secondary (although noteworthy) source used for acquiring literature and data was through a TMIP-L Digest discussion group, which is used by many modelers in the United States and elsewhere to raise technical issues. Some of the participants were contacted with respect to information or opinions expressed regarding toll road forecasting and modeling in this forum. They were asked to clarify or amplify these opinions and provide information and data. SURVEY OF PRACTITIONERS A web-based survey was sent to four types of organizations throughout the United States: state DOTs, toll authorities, bond rating agencies, and bond insurance agencies. The survey CHAPTER TWO METHOD FOR LITERATURE REVIEW AND SURVEY

9included both the “traditional” transportation community (the first two types) as well as the financial community (the last two types). This diversity in the survey group was intended to cap- ture the viewpoints and experience of the forecasting and mod- eling process from as many participants involved in the process as possible. Participants were given the option of answering directly online through a web-based survey program (Websurveyor) or completing a hard copy of the survey that was included in the e-mail as a pdf, which could be returned to the consultant by mail or by fax. A pilot test of the content, structure, and format was conducted before the survey launch. The survey was divided into three self-contained sections (designated as Parts I, II, and III). This made the survey more “respondent friendly,” to specifically target areas of interest in the modeling and forecasting process. Part I determined the type of agency that was responding to the survey and who from that agency was completing the questionnaire. It also asked them to discuss their philosophy, in terms of their use of tolling technologies, what type of facilities were tolled, etc. Part II pertained to the forecasting model itself and its variables. This section was answered either by the original respondent, if the responding organization performed the modeling and forecasting in-house, or could be forwarded to a consultant or the agency that actually developed or applied the model for the original responding agency. This section requested that the respondent describe in detail the type of model used and the parameters of the model in terms of inputs, structure, modeled trip purpose, calibration tech- niques, validation checks, etc. Part III asked the respondent to discuss a specific exam- ple of a toll road traffic demand and revenue study carried out by the responding organization. Again, if the original respondent did not perform the actual analysis, the survey could be passed to a consultant or outside agency responsi- ble for the study. The purpose of this section was to deter- mine the results of the previously described model (Part II) and whether there were major or minor problems with the analysis, whether they were identified, how and if they were corrected, etc. In sum, 138 surveys were sent to different organizations. There were 55 respondents, for a response rate of 40%. Of these, 29 declined to complete the survey or completed only Part I of the survey, because they did not currently or plan to own or operate toll roads. The remaining 26 respondents completed Part II, with 13 of these completing the entire survey.

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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Syntheses 364: Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue examines the state of the practice for forecasting demand and revenues for toll roads in the United States. The report explores the models that are used to forecast the demand for travel and the application of these models to project revenues as a function of demand estimates.

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