Methodology for Estimating the Value of Travel Time Reliability for Truck Freight System Users (2016)

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N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP REPORT 824 Methodology for Estimating the Value of Travel Time Reliability for Truck Freight System Users Ira Hirschman Elias Scheker Da Silva WSP |ParSonS Brinckerhoff| New York, NY Joseph G.B. Bryan WSP |ParSonS Brinckerhoff| Boston, MA i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h Anne Strauss-Wieder A. Strauss-Wieder, Inc. Westfield, NJ a n d Bruce Tompkins TomPkinS inTernaTional Raleigh, NC Subscriber Categories Highways • Freight Transportation • Operations and Traffic Management TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2016 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing highway administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation results in increasingly complex problems of wide inter- est to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). 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C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 824 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Christopher Hedges, Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program William C. Rogers, Senior Program Officer Charlotte Thomas, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Maria Sabin Crawford, Editor NCHRP PROJECT 08-99 PANEL Area of Transportation Planning—Field of Forecasting Steven A. Smith, San Bernardino Associated Governments, San Bernardino, CA (Chair) Rachel L. Knutson, Washington State Department of Revenue, Olympia, WA Robert Costello, American Trucking Associations, Arlington, VA Konstantina “Nadia” Gkritza, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN Daniel G. Haake, CDM Smith, Indianapolis, IN Robert E. “Ed” Lee, Florida DOT, Tallahassee, FL Barry Padilla, California DOT, Sacramento, CA Guoqiang Shen, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK Lynn Jonell Soporowski, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort, KY Jin Wang, Atkins, San Francisco, CA Nicole J. Katsikides, FHWA Liaison Scott Babcock, TRB Liaison

F O R E W O R D NCHRP Report 824: Methodology for Estimating the Value of Travel Time Reliability for Truck Freight System Users describes the research to develop and demonstrate a survey methodology to estimate the value of travel time reliability for truck freight system users in order to assist in the evaluation of proposed highway infrastructure and operations invest- ments. It provides a research approach to conduct a more detailed survey and modeling protocol to collect direct schedule delay and cost information. The report will be valuable to public decisionmakers who are considering highway infrastructure and operations investments. Travel time reliability is frequently cited as an important metric for the trucking community and other users of truck freight services. Travel time reliability for all vehicles is commonly measured and reported as a percentile or mean travel time, but currently there is no con- sensus on how to value travel time reliability for just trucks. Travel time reliability needs to be incorporated into the truck freight benefit estimation in order to fully capture truck freight benefits associated with mobility projects and provide quantitative data for project prioritization. Under NCHRP Project 08-99, WSP|Parsons Brinckerhoff (1) reviewed state-of-the-practice of evaluating truck freight travel time reliability, including its application in transportation planning; (2) developed methodology to estimate the value of truck freight travel time reliability for truck freight system users (e.g., for-hire and private motor carriers, shippers, receivers, 3PLs); (3) identified data, sources of data, and collection methods necessary to apply the methodology; (4) demonstrated and evaluated methodology, including the collection and use of sample data; (5) proposed approaches for states and local transportation agencies to use the methodology in their planning processes; and (6) prepared a research plan for a follow-on project to conduct a large-scale data gathering effort that will enable the valuation of travel time reliability for truck freight system users representing multiple industry sectors. By William C. Rogers Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 1 Study Goals and Approach 2 Survey and Interview Research 5 Truck Freight Reliability Valuation Model 8 Case Study Demonstrations 8 Proposed Phase II Research Plan 11 Chapter 1 Study Goals and Approach 11 General Study Approach 12 A Framework for Analyzing Impacts and Costs of Truck Travel Time Unreliability 13 Report Organization 13 Intended Audience 16 Chapter 2 Previous Research 16 Definitions and Measurement of Reliability 17 Valuation of Reliability 21 Chapter 3 Survey and Interview Research 21 Notes on Terminology 21 Background—Trucking Industry Structure and Integration in Supply Chains 22 Initial Online Surveys 30 Industry Interviews 36 Follow-Up Surveys 39 Chapter 4 Truck Freight Reliability Valuation Model— Approach and Model Structure 39 Valuation Methodology Overview 40 Basic Model Logic 40 Costs Captured by the Model 41 Sources of Variation in Economic Costs of Delay—Supply Chain, Market, and Transportation Factors 43 Model Logic and Structure 45 Model Default Values and Assumptions 46 Reliability Cost Curves 47 Applicability to Truck Freight Corridors 48 Sources of Reliability Data Applicable to Truck Freight Corridors 50 Chapter 5 Model Demonstration Case Studies 50 Case Study # 1—Georgia I-75/I-16 Corridor 56 Case Study # 2—El Paso Ports of Entry 61 Chapter 6 Study Conclusions 61 Survey and Interview Findings 62 Model Outcomes

63 Chapter 7 Implementation Plan: Approaches for State and Local Transportation Agencies to Use the Methodology 64 Chapter 8 Follow-On Research Plan 64 Information Gaps and Model Limitations 65 Suggested Research Approach 67 Bibliography 69 Appendix A Online Survey Instruments 78 Appendix B Interview Guides 88 Appendix C Derivation of Probable Delay for Log-Linear Trip Time Distributions 91 Appendix D User’s Guide Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.