FRONTIERS IN DECADAL
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Proceedings of a Workshop
Amanda Purcell and Nancy Huddleston, Rapporteurs
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
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This project was supported by the US Department of Energy under contract number DESC0014286, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX08AB07G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number NA14OAR4310301, and the National Science Foundation under award number AGS-1507493. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-44461-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-44461-6
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/23552
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Printed in the United States of America.
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. DOI: 10.17226/23552.
Cover: A regression map of Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Figure modified after Di Lorenzo et al. (2015).
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COMMITTEE ON FRONTIERS IN DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: A WORKSHOP
GERALD A. (JERRY) MEEHL (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
KEVIN ARRIGO, Stanford University, California
SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
ROBERT HALLBERG, Princeton University and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
DAVID HALPERN, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena, California
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)
NANCY HUDDLESTON, Communications Officer, Division on Earth and Life Sciences (DELS)
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board (OSB) (through August 2015)
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator, BASC
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany
MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida
HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California
ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
MAURA HAGAN, Utah State University, Logan
TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts
EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, New York
RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina
JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, Washington
JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson
ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn
S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central, Boulder, Colorado
Ocean Studies Board Liaison
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
Polar Research Board Liaison
JENNIFER FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, Massachusetts
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Program Director
KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer
ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
LARRY A. MAYER (Chair), University of New Hampshire, Durham
E. VIRGINIA ARMBRUST, University of Washington, Seattle
KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University, California
CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina, Columbia
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover
CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
JAMES A. ESTES, University of California, Santa Cruz
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
PATRICK HEIMBACH, University of Texas, Austin
SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
BONNIE J. MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
STEVEN A. MURAWSKI, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
H. TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis
MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California
DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon
DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University, Miami
LISA D. WHITE, University of California, Berkeley and San Francisco State University
ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Maryland
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer
STACEE KARRAS, Associate Program Officer
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
PAYTON KULINA, Senior Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
HEATHER COLEMAN, Postdoctoral Fellow
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Acknowledgments
This Proceedings of a Workshop has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that the proceedings meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
Lisa Goddard, Columbia University
Philip Jones, University of East Anglia
Veronica Nieves, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the Proceedings of a Workshop before public release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona; he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this proceedings rests entirely with the authors and the institution.
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